iLikeToSnipe
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Posts posted by iLikeToSnipe
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Just now, Shade939 said:
How many players got stuck results in total, clearly you would still be picking between those players though.
What we're trying to get at is that you have absolutely no way of knowing if a stuck result is because somebody is a spy. You're the only one who keeps on going on about this. It is true that somebody who shoots and doesn't get stuck can't be the spy. That doesn't mean the opposite is true though, everyone can get stuck when they shoot so somebody getting stuck has no bearing on whether or not they are the spy. It literally has zero meaning, there's nothing you can infer from it. The best you can get is somebody who doesn't understand the logic behind this being afraid to shoot.
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3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:
Sure is a shame that there's a built in counter for the Nod Spy unit in the form of them being incapable of getting anything other than one result with their day kill...
What would be your next move if somebody shoots, gets stuck, you got them lynched because "they are likely to be the spy", and they aren't?
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1 minute ago, Voe said:
I find Louis' play melodramatic, both day 1 and 2. Is this normal for her?
Day 1 was within her town meta more than her scum meta imo. Day 2 is abnormal, but still not out of that "overlap" and solidly scum. She is very high on my scum list because of it, but I am waiting for her to post more today (as well as for others).
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Just now, ChopBam said:
Oh my godlessness, does anybody really thinks Anon_Kat is being guided by someone in the scum doc?
Scum are guiding him to appear unguided!
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2 minutes ago, ChopBam said:
Also am I the only person who read Louis' "joke" about killing orange as more than just a joke?
I read it as either a joke or an incredibly brazen taunt at Orange. Given their interactions before, I could see it as an actual taunt. It's enough for me to justify a D2 lynch, need to investigate her more.
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6 hours ago, TheIrishman said:
I think scum did a dumb move. Orange was Town, his power role was self preservation, and he already fired his shot. It would've been so much easier to kill someone else and then push Orange to be lynched to starting on Mojo.
Honestly makes me suspect Jeod less. iLTS, I'm not as sure as I was before as he likes to gamble his plays.
Considering this game is relatively simple I suspect Anon_Cat is scum due to the NK and how easy it'd be to train him during this game. But that's meta-ing off KY which isn't technically how you're supposed to play.
This reads pretty scummy to me.
First, scum are "dumb" for taking out a veteran player with a power role. I did not believe Orange's claim when he made it, and I'm only believing his flavor claim right now. Either he couldn't do what he claimed or he could and scum had a specific counter ready to go. I think the first option is much more likely (maybe JJ was actually a watcher?) and Orange was trying to avoid a kill attempt. Obviously that didn't work, so is it really dumb for scum to have made this kill?
Second, this doesn't seem like a gamble (for reasons I just mentioned) and it isn't the kind of "gamble" I'd make. Killing Orange removes a player who is a threat on their own and potentially removes a power role. What's a gamble about that?
Third, I don't think a lynch on Orange was that likely today. He almost certainly would have still been at least in my top three suspects today. But that's just me. There didn't seem to be many others who were discussing an Orange lynch yesterday (I think only Jeod had besides the others who voted). Given what others have said already, I don't think Orange would be a "safe" lynch for town or mafia today.
Finally, Irishman wraps this up with a pointless throwaway at Anon. He's suspicious of Anon for metagame reasons, but that should be ignored because it's not "technically how you're supposed to play". So why even mention it? That seems like he's priming Anon for a future lynch of opportunity.
I don't agree with Irish's assertions about Orange's death at all. What I get from this is that he's not scum hunting, he's throwing stuff out there to tee up people for a lynch.
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24 minutes ago, Shade939 said:
Sure, I give iLikeToSnipe permission to use his day kill to shoot me.
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23 minutes ago, Shade939 said:
It's a really good reason to fire your shot, and a large part of how the day kills should be used for this game.
How about we all prove ourselves by shooting Shade.
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4 minutes ago, Shade939 said:
He may not be the best NK target to go after, but he's still probably a better NK target than randomly trying to pick from the remaining players who has an actual power role.
I don't think we can reason too much into why scum tried to kill Orange. There are so many different motivations and I don't think we have enough to reliably determine one.
Examples:
- Try to frame somebody who was pushing a case on Orange
- Pick a most likely target for an NK, assume they will be protected, and go for second best target
- Take out a veteran player who is good at scum hunting
- Take out a player they believe has a power role (a veteran player with a power role is more dangerous than a veteran player with a vanilla role)
- Stop Orange from increasing his internet points
- etc
If anything, possible motivation for the kill should be supporting evidence rather than primary evidence. I think it is always a good idea to look back at players who give off scum vibes and see if their behavior ties into a potential plot that involves killing the player who died. Nothing comes to mind right now, but there's just been too much content for me to follow.
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1 minute ago, Retaliation said:
I think scum would have to not have hidden roles for this game though.
That's a really good point I didn't even think about. Yes, the original roles can be changed and new ones added (ex. Orange's Jump Jet); obviously they were. I would think that mafia wouldn't buy his claim if they all had stock roles. So, if they thought he was a stock role why would they kill him?
Either they believed he was making a fake claim as a "real" power role, meaning mafia is likely the stock roles. Or they have at least one modified/new role and bought his flavor claim.
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I wasn't really paying attention to the cases against Orange. Was there anyone who believed his role claim? Honestly, I thought he was anything but a jump jet.
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Just now, ChopBam said:
Scum could have gotten someone else and pretty easily pushed him for a lynch today. Not sure what the game is.
Well, mafia would have known he's town. Maybe they believed he was a power role but just didn't believe him about what he did. Which appears to have been correct since he's dead.
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1 minute ago, Retaliation said:
Really? You guys killed Orange?
I'm surprised he really was a Jump Jet, and surprised again that he's dead... I guess he wasn't actually target immune?
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1 minute ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:
Why would you even consider attacking a neutral, TheIrishman? That is clearly the wrong move to make. Absolutely nobody gains from attacking a neutral. Unless the alternative is that you lose a scum mate.
Should have saved my shot...
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Just now, OrangeP47 said:
It doesn't even kill, it just slows you down!
Plenty of mafia players could fill that role.
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Unbelievable. Nobody has uploaded the limpet drone sound effects on YouTube. What an injustice.
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1 hour ago, ChopBam said:
I'm actually interested in a case for iLTS.
Mojoman is an easy target for acting "scummy," although with his meta it's hard to get an accurate read on him. iLTS was the last person in this series to fire his gun, and I wouldn't put it past him to gamble for the likelihood to make it clear to everyone in not having his weapon get stuck that he's not the chameleon spy.
Do you have anything of substance to add to your case?
The whole discussion of "non-stuck shot = not spy" started well after I shot, as best I can remember. Doesn't mean I couldn't have gone for a "gamble" like that, but I don't see where you're making that connection.
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Just now, ChopBam said:
We're repeating ourselves.
As is tradition with Shade.
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3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:
Odds are, if someone performs a day kill, it's a result of them having a higher chance for their day kill to kill someone...
2 minutes ago, Shade939 said:If you ignore that, then you're entirely limiting yourself to meta analysis, or direct claims.
And what do you base this on? Genuinely curious here.
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1 minute ago, Shade939 said:
Sure, everyone go ahead and ignore the fact that roles have a unique day kill that changes the chances of what result they get from using it.
I'm certain ignoring role abilities and how they work is a good idea.
You'd have a much stronger point if a shoot action showed the percentages involved. Yes, a 25% chance is less likely to happen than 50%. But it can still happen and you have no way of actually knowing how unlikely some event was. The reality is that your line of thinking cannot reliably be used at all given how the game works.
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2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:
Anyone can claim any hit/jam numbers. With the exception of the Spy, any role can get any result. You can't definitively learn anything, other than eliminating people as being a Spy.
That's also assuming Spy hasn't changed. What if they got changed so that they can select between a jam or a miss?
1 minute ago, Shade939 said:Or if they killed someone. Most players day kills will result in a miss. So the two outlying cases is when their weapon gets stuck or when they kill someone.
I don't think you understand how to apply statistics.
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Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:
If the vote today were to turn out close, it might be worthwhile keeping the result of the lynch in mind, especially if Mojoman were to turn up Mafia. The lynch result can be used as part of a case on others especially when early hammer is in effect. However, it's strongly situational, and can mislead as often as not. It generally should not be the leading part of a case. That said, what else would anyone case on during Day 1?
You do bring up a good point I haven't really thought about. I don't think that an alignment flip can shed a lot of light, if any, on the alignment of anyone who had a hand in killing said person. But it certainly could for somebody who was hesitant to commit. If somebody had expressed soft support for a lynch an alignment flip could add to a case against them depending on why they didn't commit. It's also been forever since we had a game with early hammer and I participated in it.
I do think that D1 should either be a nolynch or a lynch against somebody who is more than just slightly suspicious.
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1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said:
The case on Mojo should, and can, stand on it's own indeed.
What are your thoughts on Shade? He's the hardest one for me to read as town. Whether it's my own playstyle, thought process, or something else I have a scum read on him the majority of the time. If you, Cat5, Jeod, or any other veteran would say "we need to lynch X so that we can build a case against Y" I would see that as a huge scum tell.
Shade saying that both reads as a scum tell to me and as "Shade being Shade".
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2 minutes ago, ChopBam said:
Not necessarily just a town witch hunt. Scum players will latch on to that "failing" and the town players may bandwagon along. Then my reasons for finding that person scummy are questioned and it becomes a big thing that I'd rather avoid.
That is a valid concern, but I don't think it's good as town to live in fear of it. Gotta lynch those scummy players and if town is easily fooled enough to go along with a scum led bandwagon then I don't think we would win.
1 minute ago, Shade939 said:There are multiple reasons to lynch Mojoman to see his alignment.
1. He's claiming he doesn't want to usr his day kill since his ability will hit himself.
2. He immediately jumped on Louis for shooting me, largely based on what would be combined with an assumption that I am Town.
3. Multiple other players shot at him.
That's a reasonable thread of information that can be resolved to figure out other players alignments just by figuring out what alignment Mojoman has.
While I can agree with some of this, I'd find anyone else who said all this scummy (but you are you). As I explained before, getting a flip can be useful to find the alignment of other players. But that's only going to be helpful if those players voted for scummy reasons. If somebody has voted for a scummy reason then shouldn't that be enough to find them suspicious?
Advocating for a lynch so that cases can be built on other players is a scum tell, in my opinion. If you can't build a case on a player because of their motives or actions and need the results of their actions, there isn't much of a case to begin with.
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[GAME OVER] Tiberian Sun: Reborn Mafia I
in Forum Games
Posted
Here's another point that is less unlikely given we have confirmation of a new role. What if the spy role was changed to something like 50% stuck 0% hit? There's no scenario I can think of where somebody having a stuck result should result in their lynch or contribute in any way to a read of them being mafia. If we're going to lynch them, this isn't going to be one of the reasons why. This whole topic is distracting from the real scum hunting.