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[GAME OVER] Open Janitorial Mafia


Jeod

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Excellent, it appears our enemies are as predictable as I had hoped. Going to throw out a guess that it was Nodlied that was attacked, though I suppose ChopBam would be possible.

And I have even more bad news for scum. Because the practice session I ran tonight for a race scheduled Sunday was so thoroughly unenjoyable, I have decided not to run the event, so all the time I was going to be putting into that is now going to be spent beating some war drums!

 

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7 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Going to throw out a guess that it was Nodlied that was attacked, though I suppose ChopBam would be possible.

Why is this your guess? Afaik Nodlied and I are not high priority targets, in the same way Orange didn't seem to be a high priority target on D1.

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Can narrow it down pretty easy.

Won't be iLikeToSnipe, Mojoman, or Shade, because they are scum. Even if I'm wrong about one of these three, they still won't kill them because they have suspicion on them.

Won't be me because scum will deliberately avoid triggering my role, which is why it was stupid of you guys not to lynch me after I claimed.

So what we have left is Nodlied, ChopBam, and TheIrishman. TheIrishman didn't mention being attacked, so it wasn't him.

Between Nodlied and ChopBam, if I had to pick the player I was most confident was town, I'd pick Nodlied. Therefore, he would be the most likely target.

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Another day another move. And this time, we've managed to check the mob. In any case, my investigation report shows that Inferno is town. 

11 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Excellent, it appears our enemies are as predictable as I had hoped. Going to throw out a guess that it was Nodlied that was attacked, though I suppose ChopBam would be possible.

And I have even more bad news for scum. Because the practice session I ran tonight for a race scheduled Sunday was so thoroughly unenjoyable, I have decided not to run the event, so all the time I was going to be putting into that is now going to be spent beating some war drums!

Well, I haven't gotten any indication that I was attacked tonight. And well, good to see you going at it again.

 

36 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Why didn't you open the day with this?

I think that if we look at the timestamps of the two posts I've quoted, we can probably conclude that he forgot or didn't feel a reason to. :v 
 

3 hours ago, ChopBam said:

Are you suggesting we lynch one of these three?

 

3 hours ago, ChopBam said:

Mojoman is mafia.

 

In any case, Irish, if you're so inclined, could you come up with a nice chart detailing a person's relationships to one another during this game? Who has talked to who the most and who has ingored the other the most? I think that it will be able to help a lot.

 

In any case, back to having both time off and working my ass off. ?

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Oh, and I'll look at some people myself when I get back somewhere tomorrow, so don't you guys dare early hammer. (That and please use all available time.)

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2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You should leave your report as well, Nodlied.

Also, weird that nobody would have a report that they were attacked, and nobody claimed responsibility for the save.

I don't believe for a moment that you were attacked, Shade, so don't even bother claiming it.

I've already left my report. The second question could be one for the mods. @Jeod Do people know if they're attacked or not?

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@Category 5 Hurricane is scum. Or he's a town player who's just skimming through posts and isn't putting in enough effort.

On 5/16/2018 at 6:18 AM, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Yeah, thanks, Sauce Boss. I was totally worried that Mafia killed one of it's own.....

......is what I'd like to say. However, my report is that...OrangeP47...is......town. Ahem.

First of all, part of the reason why I proposed this plan was because I wanted to give the Mafia team a reason to holster the janitor shot. Typical Mafia play of this setup demands the janitor shot be used right away. This setup is actually designed to be started with a Night 0, not a Day 1, so the Janitor shot is supposed to be used before the game even starts. Then optimal Mafia play is considered to be that the janitor claim to be the cop Day 1 and force the cop to counter-claim. If they aren't met with one, then they know they killed the cop and can use the janitor's fake-claim to lead the entire game. If they get counter-claimed, usually the real cop gets lynched first and only ever makes one report. Minimizes the possible amount of damage that can be done to the Mafia team and maximizes the potential benefit. The fact that the janitor shot was used anyway suggests that a mafia veteran is in the scum team, or the janitor is someone who thinks they are likely to be lynched. It just so happens that iLTS and Mojoman are my two top suspects from D1 actions, so I like that the N1 results lead me back to the same two players.

Optimal Town strategy is to get in front of the optimal Mafia strategy, with the real cop opening with a report before the janitor can. When the janitor counter-claims, now that person is the most likely lynch, and then forces the scum team to doc hunt because the cop will be alive, clear, and protected. The problem is that even talking about this means that both sides know the plan, and now you can't know which came first. And because the janitor shot was used, we don't even know if there is a doc that will save the cop from being killed. So even if we win the 50/50, we may still only get one report from the cop. So now it's less than 50/50. I don't like those odds.

Here's the start of Cat5's "case" against me. He starts off by claiming that the actions from the janitor indicate that a mafia veteran must be on the mafia team. He then says that myself and Mojoman, who happen to be mafia veterans, also happen to be his top suspects from D1. It takes about 8 hours for Cat5 to actually expand on any suspicions where claims that we're linked together. However, the only person that Mojo insinuated was miller on D1 was Irishman. On D1, neither of us really had anything to do with each other. In fact, I tried to push a Mojo lynch so that we wouldn't no lynch on D1.

So, back to the claim that a mafia veteran must be on the mafia team. If that's true, then it isn't me. I've never played this type of mafia setup before and I've never played on Mafia Universe; and the impression I get from everybody else is that MU obsesses over meta, optimal strategy, etc. That's just not how I play the game. I don't make scum gambits on N1 (or N0, because I've never played in a game with an N0). I gather information first; either I'm town and looking for scum or I'm scum and looking for power roles. If I have an ability to hide somebody's role I'm not going to use it on a 1 out of 7 chance. To me, that's a dumb play. Yes, you could get lucky, but you're likely not to.

On 5/17/2018 at 2:38 PM, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You opened today by saying that you thought that OrangeP47 didn't have a power role. Now you suddenly have reservations that OrangeP47 was the cop afterall?

No, I've got more reasons than that. First of all, there's the appearance of a link between you and Mojoman. You both have said things that are beneficial to each other, such as Mojoman calling you the Miller and 

...

Here, actually, I'm going to switch tactics.

I'm very short on time this game and looking ahead I'm going to have even less over the next few days. I'm going to take this opportunity to use my role and exit the game.

If you want to know FRAYDO's role, lynch me now. I'm the Oracle. I have reasonably high confidence that he will be town. He's a pivotal player either way as it'll either help or hinder iLTS's argument, and it's a safe time to do this right now, so let's just do it.

##vote Category5

This is another case of Cat5 completely messing up on reading through posts. If you go back and read what I posted, you'll see that I did indeed say I didn't get any kind of read off of Orange that he was a power role. What I said after that in another post was that I must have missed something because scum thought he was a power role. That is not what Cat5 claims I did at all and he should know better.

This is also the post where he first tries to tie Mojo and I together. At this point, he still hasn't provided any of his reasoning for what D1 actions were suspicious.

On top of that, Cat5 makes what would be a big mistake as town. I've never played in a game before with an oracle, but I still thought of some pretty effective town gambits as soon as I read the role. Smart town aren't going to let one of their power roles just suicide. If we have a choice between lynching a suspicious player or lynching a power role who will clear the suspicious player it's better to lynch the suspicious player. If you truly believe somebody is town, then you SHOULDN'T LYNCH THEM. We lynch SCUM not TOWN. Again, Cat5 is a smart town player he would know better than this.

On 5/18/2018 at 1:29 AM, Category 5 Hurricane said:

To be clear, I did come up with my plan today because a combination of work and events going on for the next four days will keep me from doing any of the detective work I would normally be doing. I can't even meme as much as I wanted to. I was going to post as Mythra today, dammit. 

I figured it would be a good idea to use my role, clear FRAYDO, and then I wouldn't have to worry about having enough time to actually make and present cases like I want to. Seemed convenient, but oh well. I will still be playing the game and will not be seeking a replacement.

However, I do not like that you did not lynch me today. That was a tactical failure. We should have wound up with two cleared town today, now we only have one. My role isn't technically cleared now and scum have already tried to place doubt on my claim at the same time as voting for someone else, Mr. iLTS!

Of course I put doubt on your claim. There's absolutely nothing to back it up. Stating opinion as fact is a sign of scumminess or delusion.

On 5/18/2018 at 3:32 AM, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Regarding game balance, the game starts out so heavily in favor for the scum that town has to build a preemptive plan before the game even begins to actually have a fighting chance. The Cop didn't do his job, and now we're in really bad position. I don't think this game is as balanced as it appears. It's just been metagamed to that point. Everyone has to know what their job is for it to work.

What we have working in our favor, however, is that I think the scum team is pretty clear. iLTS, Mojoman, and Shade have been quietly but noticeably working in the same directions and always in position to support the other. There are a couple traps that have been set for the scum team to fall in to, as well. We'll just have to see if they can avoid my mines.

And this is just completely made up. Shade convinced me to vote for Mojo on D1 and I pushed for a Mojo lynch so that we wouldn't have a no lynch. So that's pretty much the opposite of working together for Mojo and I.

I had to convince Shade to not vote for Cat5 the other day. If he and I were in the scum doc talking with each other I would have convinced him beforehand in there not to vote Cat5 since it's a bad move. So, without Cat5 actually providing evidence I don't know where he's drawing this link between the three of us.

17 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Can narrow it down pretty easy.

Won't be iLikeToSnipe, Mojoman, or Shade, because they are scum. Even if I'm wrong about one of these three, they still won't kill them because they have suspicion on them.

Won't be me because scum will deliberately avoid triggering my role, which is why it was stupid of you guys not to lynch me after I claimed.

So what we have left is Nodlied, ChopBam, and TheIrishman. TheIrishman didn't mention being attacked, so it wasn't him.

Between Nodlied and ChopBam, if I had to pick the player I was most confident was town, I'd pick Nodlied. Therefore, he would be the most likely target.

Again, stating opinion as fact. So far, the only players to claim I'm suspicious are Cat5 and Irish. Neither have actually given any proof for that suspicion.

16 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I'd like to lynch iLikeToSnipe. Of all players, he is the one I'm most certain about.

I know tactically we should and likely will nolynch here, but I'm not going to let this day end early.

So, in mafia you can have scum and you can have "town in name only". If all you do is lash out and don't provide any evidence for your attacks you're providing no evidence that you're town and no evidence that your target is scum. FRAYDO made the same mistake. I made posts about him that explained my logic and provided evidence that FRAYDO was doing something scummy. Nobody, not even FRAYDO, disputed those posts and it led us to lynch a town member.

In all the Cat5 posts I've quoted, there are a lot of words from him. In all of those words, there are only two pieces of evidence he uses. TWO. One of them, the claim that I changed my stance on Orange, is demonstrably false; in fact it's obviously false if you read the two posts he's referring to. The other one, Mojo suggesting I'm miller, is the only thing that's not completely out of left field and false. However, that's not cooperation. The posts from Mojo are only one way; if anything, I pushed back against his claims and didn't cooperate.

Cat5 is trying to build a case against me by pulling stuff out of thin air. That's not how he plays as town. Maybe he's doing the same thing as FRAYDO and just going all offense (which is super scummy), but I doubt that. It's not something I can recall him doing as town before.

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But iLTS, he wanted us to lynch him. The only way he's scum is if he somehow thought his lynching would help scum, and I don't see a way. Do you?

The only person his death would be tied to is FRAYDO (claimed Oracle target), and FRAYDO flipped as town. So unless he really wanted out of the game that badly, so much so as to have his team lose a scummate for no perceivable gain or reason, he's town.

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45 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

But iLTS, he wanted us to lynch him. The only way he's scum is if he somehow thought his lynching would help scum, and I don't see a way. Do you?

The only person his death would be tied to is FRAYDO (claimed Oracle target), and FRAYDO flipped as town. So unless he really wanted out of the game that badly, so much so as to have his team lose a scummate for no perceivable gain or reason, he's town.

I see it as a gambit. If somebody claims town power role they're probably not going to be lynched. I have done something similar in a past game, and it worked.

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9 hours ago, Inferno said:

##vote NoLynch

Vote counted.

CVC:

Category 5 Hurricane voted nobody
Shade939 voted nobody
iLikeToSnipe voted nobody
Nodlied voted nobody
Inferno voted NoLynch
Mojoman voted nobody
ChopBam voted nobody
TheIrishMan voted nobody

Time Left: 6h 24m

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1 hour ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

I see it as a gambit. If somebody claims town power role they're probably not going to be lynched. I have done something similar in a past game, and it worked.

But the Oracle? He had legit votes on him.

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38 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

But the Oracle? He had legit votes on him.

Up until today I thought Cat5 was misguided town.

With the janitor role, mafia will typically know the role of the player they killed. This allows them to safely claim a power role if they get a power role. Their chances of getting the cop is 1 out of 7. Their chances of getting a power role is 3 out of 7. If they get a read on somebody that makes them think they're a power role then mafia should jump on that. That's why I was surprised at Orange being janitored. I didn't think he was a power role and I commented that mafia must have seen something that I missed.

Either mafia did go for a random kill in hopes of getting a power role (3 out of 7 isn't that bad for odds), or they made an educated guess and happened to bag the oracle. Since nobody counter claimed Cat5 yesterday I believed that he was most likely town with the slim possibility that the oracle was janitored. His assertion that Mojo, Shade, and myself are the scum team is what has changed my mind.

I can see Mojo as scum and I've got a null read on Shade. I can accept Cat5 tunneling on me too. What I don't buy is that Cat5 honestly believes that we're working together. As I pointed out in my wall of text, there isn't anything to indicate that all three of us are working together. It's a weak argument and I'm kind of surprised that he'd even try and make it.

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