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Jeod

[GAME OVER] Open Janitorial Mafia

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Send your actions in as a reply to your role PMs since it has both of us (me and KY) in it. That'll ensure we keep on the same page.

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I think we have enough info for SOME vote analysis at least.  It's not a vacuum, but yeah, to be fair, we could have had more.

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On 5/12/2018 at 6:22 PM, Mojoman said:

I figure we'll have a D1 No lynch, followed by a Vanilla town kill N1, then D2 lynch of Vanilla mafia who will get bussed by their team members to protect the power roles, N2 there will be no kill, D3 a mafia member will claim cop and call out the Miller who will flip mafia giving more legitimacy to the mafia members, etc.. etc..., finally at 4 players left, it's a 50/50 between FRAYDO and a mafia, FRAYDO dies to RNG and we lose.

Well, we're on our way to Mojoman's prophecy.

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Alright. So, here's the deal. I have a better gambit than TheIrishman.

One thing we need to avoid this game is having our cop killed before he has given his reports. We don't have many days or nights in this setup, so we need cop reports starting right away to help us narrow the field.

Obviously the trouble here is that it's risky having a cop claim, because it can draw a counter-claim, and then you can't know which claim is true and then you have to lynch one or the other to find out, and that doesn't often work out that well. There is also a potential trap involved in testing guilty reports because of the Miller.

So the alternative plan is that EVERYONE CLAIMS TO BE THE COP. AND I MEAN EVERYONE.

How this works is that from here on out, each player's opening post for the day should include a Cop report. Everyone who isn't the cop just makes one up. The real cop will be able to hide among the others and tell us the investigation results without directly exposing himself to counter-claim games. If at any point in the game the cop turns up dead, we will then have the entire investigation history of the cop.

Now, one of the counter arguments to this strategy is that everyone claiming a report will help scum narrow down who the cop actually is, because they will know when people have wrong reports. However, I figure this will actually make the scum want to avoid killing the cop, because as soon as the cop is killed, the reports that have already been made instantly turn against them like a time bomb. The only way for them to avoid this problem is if they holster the janitor shot hoping that they figure out who the cop is before they use it, which is itself an advantage for us because they'll have to allow early kills to be revealed and will leave them unable to pretend to be the dead role.

So yeah. All of you. First post of the Day. Investigation Report. Or you will feel the wrath of Nepgya!

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7 hours ago, FRAYDO said:

Well, we're on our way to Mojoman's prophecy.

Thus sayeth the unlynched.

 

 

50 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

TL;DR - New Plan

Seems like a lot of work to me. I think I'll spend my first day post defending myself rather than making up a cop report.

Or maybe I'll play along and end up being the only one. I see a very late April fools joke...

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Right, yes. Do try to make it actually look like you aren't making it up. That'd be great.

You know, don't claim you got a guilty on someone and then not make a single case on that person during that day, for example that I definitely haven't seen happen before at another forum that might hold mafia games on a potentially regular basis with occasional rumored chumpionships.

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So my cop report shows Cat_5 as scum...

Oh wait sorry, gotta wait 9 more hours.

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I'm not so sure I like the odds on that, what with the janitor around.  I think default smart scum play would involve holstering the janitor shot anyway, so we wouldn't really be costing them anything by making them wait for figuring out who the cop is.  Furthermore, if they manage to figure it out after only one round, offing the cop after just one "confirmed" report wouldn't be that big of an issue for them.  I mean, it seems like they'd want to do it early, before things got even worse for them.

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zOQBUQ0.jpg

 

On 5/14/2018 at 10:55 AM, Category 5 Hurricane said:

 

AmTcUx7.jpg

 

22 hours ago, FRAYDO said:

raw

I know @Nodlied is especially eager to learn.

Oh yes, I'm eager to learn... how to bloody rid the world of that heresy.

In any case lads, did we really have to no-lynch today? What is this? The new go-to strategy? We've done this more than enough in the previous games. What's next? No-lynching until everybody is dead?

In any case, Cat5, I believe that your idea could actually work. So let's give it a try.

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4 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Right, yes. Do try to make it actually look like you aren't making it up. That'd be great.

You know, don't claim you got a guilty on someone and then not make a single case on that person during that day, for example that I definitely haven't seen happen before at another forum that might hold mafia games on a potentially regular basis with occasional rumored chumpionships.

Just so we're clear; what does an official cop report look like? so we can prepare in advance and all

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40 minutes ago, Inferno said:

Just so we're clear; what does an official cop report look like? so we can prepare in advance and all

As the Real cop, I'll let you know. :smug:

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DAY TWO

Dawn has arrived! What's this? It looks like OrangeP47 was murdered last night! Unfortunately, you could only identify his name, not his role. There are still mafia left! Get to it!

CVC:

Category 5 Hurricane voted nobody
Shade939 voted nobody
iLikeToSnipe voted nobody
Nodlied voted nobody
Inferno voted nobody
Mojoman voted nobody
FRAYDO voted nobody
ChopBam voted nobody
TheIrishMan voted nobody 

Time Left: 48h 30m

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I gave a 30 minute extension because it appears there will be a lot of discussion today.

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Right, so am I the only one who's really noticing some of the obvious flaws in these plans people are putting forward to try and help the cop?

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4 hours ago, Shade939 said:

Right, so am I the only one who's really noticing some of the obvious flaws in these plans people are putting forward to try and help the cop?

That we're essentially forgoing the use of the Cop to make our decisions? Or that Scum may potentially snipe off the cop without us protecting them(although I would've expected them to wait to use their janitor on them)?

Although I know Cat5 came up with this plan in light of the possibility of a counterclaim, but I honestly think it'd be best for our cop to claim. We only have one person that actually needs protection of our Doctor. Our other roles are Doctor, Oracle, and Miller. The Doctor can stay in the shadows, Oracle doesn't need or want protection, and Miller provides nothing for us. And our Doctor can still protect others if Scum falls for that mind game.

I'd rather not wait another turn, because if we don't lynch at least one Scum or have our Doctor successfully prevent a NK then we're looking at LYLO tomorrow. If worse comes to worst and 2 people claim Cop while we lynch the wrong one, which is 50% chance, then we'll still have enough time to lynch the other and extend the game for certain. If the same counterclaim situation happens tomorrow, then we're looking at a 50% at losing entirely.

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7 minutes ago, TheIrishman said:

That we're essentially forgoing the use of the Cop to make our decisions? Or that Scum may potentially snipe off the cop without us protecting them(although I would've expected them to wait to use their janitor on them)?

Although I know Cat5 came up with this plan in light of the possibility of a counterclaim, but I honestly think it'd be best for our cop to claim. We only have one person that actually needs protection of our Doctor. Our other roles are Doctor, Oracle, and Miller. The Doctor can stay in the shadows, Oracle doesn't need or want protection, and Miller provides nothing for us. And our Doctor can still protect others if Scum falls for that mind game.

I'd rather not wait another turn, because if we don't lynch at least one Scum or have our Doctor successfully prevent a NK then we're looking at LYLO tomorrow. If worse comes to worst and 2 people claim Cop while we lynch the wrong one, which is 50% chance, then we'll still have enough time to lynch the other and extend the game for certain. If the same counterclaim situation happens tomorrow, then we're looking at a 50% at losing entirely.

Yeah, of course that can't exactly happen if everyone's claiming to be the cop now can it....

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10 hours ago, ChopBam said:

OrangeP47 is cleared as town. 👍

Yeah, thanks, Sauce Boss. I was totally worried that Mafia killed one of it's own.....

......is what I'd like to say. However, my report is that...OrangeP47...is......town. Ahem.

7 hours ago, TheIrishman said:

That we're essentially forgoing the use of the Cop to make our decisions? Or that Scum may potentially snipe off the cop without us protecting them(although I would've expected them to wait to use their janitor on them)?

Although I know Cat5 came up with this plan in light of the possibility of a counterclaim, but I honestly think it'd be best for our cop to claim. We only have one person that actually needs protection of our Doctor. Our other roles are Doctor, Oracle, and Miller. The Doctor can stay in the shadows, Oracle doesn't need or want protection, and Miller provides nothing for us. And our Doctor can still protect others if Scum falls for that mind game.

I'd rather not wait another turn, because if we don't lynch at least one Scum or have our Doctor successfully prevent a NK then we're looking at LYLO tomorrow. If worse comes to worst and 2 people claim Cop while we lynch the wrong one, which is 50% chance, then we'll still have enough time to lynch the other and extend the game for certain. If the same counterclaim situation happens tomorrow, then we're looking at a 50% at losing entirely.

First of all, part of the reason why I proposed this plan was because I wanted to give the Mafia team a reason to holster the janitor shot. Typical Mafia play of this setup demands the janitor shot be used right away. This setup is actually designed to be started with a Night 0, not a Day 1, so the Janitor shot is supposed to be used before the game even starts. Then optimal Mafia play is considered to be that the janitor claim to be the cop Day 1 and force the cop to counter-claim. If they aren't met with one, then they know they killed the cop and can use the janitor's fake-claim to lead the entire game. If they get counter-claimed, usually the real cop gets lynched first and only ever makes one report. Minimizes the possible amount of damage that can be done to the Mafia team and maximizes the potential benefit. The fact that the janitor shot was used anyway suggests that a mafia veteran is in the scum team, or the janitor is someone who thinks they are likely to be lynched. It just so happens that iLTS and Mojoman are my two top suspects from D1 actions, so I like that the N1 results lead me back to the same two players.

Optimal Town strategy is to get in front of the optimal Mafia strategy, with the real cop opening with a report before the janitor can. When the janitor counter-claims, now that person is the most likely lynch, and then forces the scum team to doc hunt because the cop will be alive, clear, and protected. The problem is that even talking about this means that both sides know the plan, and now you can't know which came first. And because the janitor shot was used, we don't even know if there is a doc that will save the cop from being killed. So even if we win the 50/50, we may still only get one report from the cop. So now it's less than 50/50. I don't like those odds.

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6 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Town sounding things

Wow.

So anyways, I voted Irish right away because his plan sounded too horrible to actually be real, like a play 'ignorant' and people think 'No scum would actually put out a plan like that'.

FRAYDO's first interaction with Irish's plan seemed to me to be indecisive, so I felt that either FRAYDO or Irish was scum, but not both. So I ate a cracker.

I'm a safe lynch for town, so if you want to lynch me today and then refocus your strategy on iLTS day 3, that works for me. Though personally, I believe iLTS is the miller.

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And here I was thinking I saw a hint of concern from iLTS when you were being voted up yesterday, Mojo. With you volunteering yourself as the "safe lynch", I'm now considering iLTS is your power role scummate.

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You must be the Janitor, no longer of use having used your shot. iLTS is Vanilla Mafia, and your third Lawyer will see that he shows up Innocent on the N2 report.

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And thus we open the day by proclaiming that the honourable Fraydo is, in fact, town.

 

1 hour ago, FRAYDO said:

You must be the Janitor, no longer of use having used your shot. iLTS is Vanilla Mafia, and your third Lawyer will see that he shows up Innocent on the N2 report.

That would make sense if he felt that iLTS was very threatened. But is iLTS that threatened? What if he's the safe lynch for an entirely different reason?

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