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[GAME OVER] Cop Mafia II


Jeod

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I mean, we have 1 sane, 1 insane, 1 paranoid and 1 naive cop. Whatever scum does, he has to assume the role of one of them. Sooner or later we'll have 2 people coming up with the same results, and that gives us a 1 in 2 guaranteed hit.

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So, I've thought about it some more and I think that self investigating should be left for the very end (if at all). I think we're going to be able to gather enough information to determine our cop sanity without self examining. Because that's really just establishing a control and chances are you will investigate one of the players who ends up flipping.

I'm pretty tired, so I'm not feeling like putting the effort into fully drawing this out honestly. Does this seem like solid reasoning? I don't think we can coordinate investigation targets reliably, but I think we can at least get some planning done.

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1 hour ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

So, I've thought about it some more and I think that self investigating should be left for the very end (if at all). I think we're going to be able to gather enough information to determine our cop sanity without self examining. Because that's really just establishing a control and chances are you will investigate one of the players who ends up flipping.

I'm pretty tired, so I'm not feeling like putting the effort into fully drawing this out honestly. Does this seem like solid reasoning? I don't think we can coordinate investigation targets reliably, but I think we can at least get some planning done.

I have some thoughts, but it's true that sharing them too much would just lead to the NK sniping someone who's report is needed for the coordination to really matter, so I'll just leave it at I'm not self-investigating either.

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[PLAYER] [N0 REPORT] [N1 REPORT] [NOT THIS SANITY]
Voe iLTS Town rip Paranoid
Killing_You ChopBam Town Voe Town Paranoid, Insane
iLikeToSnipe Voe Mafia ChopBam Mafia Naive
ChopBam Killing_You Mafia ??? Naive
OrangeP47 Voe Town ??? Paranoid, Insane

 

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Blech, I made a minor mistake. One second.

[PLAYER] [N0 REPORT] [N1 REPORT] [NOT THIS SANITY]
Voe iLTS Town rip Paranoid
Killing_You ChopBam Town Voe Town Paranoid, Insane
iLikeToSnipe Voe Mafia ChopBam Mafia Naive, Sane
ChopBam Killing_You Mafia ??? Naive
OrangeP47 Voe Town ??? Paranoid, Insane
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Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
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Just working some possible combos here:

  1. If KY is mafia, then I am Paranoid (b/c I got a mafia report both from KY and from Orange, opposite alignments). This would logically make iLTS Insane. Voe and Orange could roll dice to see who's Sane and Naive.
  2. If iLTS is mafia, then I am Paranoid and Voe was Insane (getting his N0 report on iLTS as town). KY and Orange could roll dice to determine who's Sane and Naive.
  3.  
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Just working some combos here:

  1. If KY is mafia, then I am Paranoid (b/c I got a mafia report both from KY and from Orange, opposite alignments). This would logically make iLTS Insane. Voe and Orange could roll dice to see who's Sane and Naive.
  2. If iLTS is mafia, then I am Paranoid and Voe was Insane (getting his N0 report on iLTS as town). KY and Orange could roll dice to determine who's Sane and Naive.
  3. Logical impossibility: If I am mafia, then iLTS is Paranoid. KY would be Naive (because he investigated me for a town report). This would make Orange Sane, which would mean by process of elimination that Voe is Insane (impossible because he got a town report on iLTS).
  4. If OrangeP47 is mafia, then I am Paranoid (mafia reports on both KY and Orange), which would make iLTS insane. Voe and KY could roll for who is Sane or Naive.
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So logically it's between KY, iLTS, and OrangeP47 as our possible scum members.

I'm leaning iLTS for a few reasons that I am having a hard time articulating right now. I was hoping his or my N1 report would be town, so the other person could be confirmed as a town Paranoid, but his N1 report was also mafia, as if to keep that confirmation from happening. The N1 kill was Voe, which happened to be iLTS's "report" from N0, and it looks to me like he's trying to prove that he's the insane one and not Voe (because if Voe was insane, then iLTS is mafia, and this could be proven more easily if Voe lived another day and got a reverse report the following night).

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1 hour ago, ChopBam said:

Just working some combos here:

  1. If KY is mafia, then I am Paranoid (b/c I got a mafia report both from KY and from Orange, opposite alignments). This would logically make iLTS Insane. Voe and Orange could roll dice to see who's Sane and Naive.
  2. If iLTS is mafia, then I am Paranoid and Voe was Insane (getting his N0 report on iLTS as town). KY and Orange could roll dice to determine who's Sane and Naive.
  3. Logical impossibility: If I am mafia, then iLTS is Paranoid. KY would be Naive (because he investigated me for a town report). This would make Orange Sane, which would mean by process of elimination that Voe is Insane (impossible because he got a town report on iLTS).
  4. If OrangeP47 is mafia, then I am Paranoid (mafia reports on both KY and Orange), which would make iLTS insane. Voe and KY could roll for who is Sane or Naive.

Here's a visualizer for this post, with the adjustment to the KY scum possibility that OrangeP47 couldn't be sane in that instance.

 

If KY scum:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        

 

If iLTS scum:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        

 

If ChopBam scum:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        

 

If OrangeP47 scum:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
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You know what that visualizer just helped me realize? In none of those cases am I insane. Therefore I am confirmed logically as our paranoid cop. So while I may be the night target because I am confirmed, I am also useless and if I am to be the night target, there will still be at least one useful cop in play tomorrow to share his report.
 

Either iLTS is Insane or he is Mafia. I half expect him to put up a "town" report tomorrow in order to "prove" either KY or OrangeP47 as mafia for the lynch, but now that I've mentioned this, maybe he won't go that route. I am not 100% sure that he is mafia but I have a hunch based on his patterns.

Updated chart:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
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I 100% agree with ChopBam that he's the paranoid cop, I don't see any other way around that. Which would make me the insane cop.

 

3 hours ago, ChopBam said:

So logically it's between KY, iLTS, and OrangeP47 as our possible scum members.

I'm leaning iLTS for a few reasons that I am having a hard time articulating right now. I was hoping his or my N1 report would be town, so the other person could be confirmed as a town Paranoid, but his N1 report was also mafia, as if to keep that confirmation from happening. The N1 kill was Voe, which happened to be iLTS's "report" from N0, and it looks to me like he's trying to prove that he's the insane one and not Voe (because if Voe was insane, then iLTS is mafia, and this could be proven more easily if Voe lived another day and got a reverse report the following night).

I know I'm town, which means that it's either KY or Orange. So I'm going to address your points here.

  1. Just picking randomly I'd have a 1-in-3 chance of getting a town result, there's not much hoping for me getting a town result. Also, if I was mafia I think with the logic you've used I would have known in advance that you were the paranoid cop and I could have used whatever report I wanted today to get a lynch in my favor.
  2. If I wanted Voe dead, then why did I swing the vote off of him and onto a nolynch? If I were mafia and wanted to kill him I could have just not done that and gotten a bonus kill during the night.
  3. If I'm trying to "steal" Voe's insane cop role, that's some insane luck. I made my soft-claim post first thing in the game and quickly followed it up with my full report. That's also another reason why I would have wanted a Voe lynch as mafia.

We had two people who jumped onto the Voe bandwagon D1 and those two people also had reports of the same alignment. One of them had a legit reason (at least in their mind). I believe the other was taking the opportunity not just to get town killed, but to get a town member killed that they could more easily fake a cop sanity from.

It has to be KY or Orange. One of them is mafia and the other is 50/50 the sane or naive cop. I'm not sure what the best way to investigate them is, or if we should even plan it out. But I think we could clear it up tonight.

I have to run to work, but I'll be working on a case against both to see if there's anything that stands out.

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I had a feeling Chop would be the paranoid cop even before he posted, and that this was all pointing towards KY, but I didn't say anything in case Chop had some sort of curve ball.  I suppose this is obvious from my perspective, knowing I'm town, but I can see how you might think I'm scum and I haven't been involved in the copping all that much.

I agree the Voe kill didn't make much sense if ILTS is mafia (unless he's playing some serious deflection...), but as I said D1, we have too many town reports and just the right amount of mafia reports so I'm inclined to believe him, especially now that we have a bigger picture. Hell, I'm confident enough I'd be down for voting KY *now* but I can understand if everyone thinks that's a bit too bold.

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