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[GAME OVER] Cop Mafia II


Jeod

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18 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

@ChopBam

Okay, let me do a rehash. On D2 it came down to either KY or Orange as the last mafia. Expecting myself to die N2 and not being able to trust a cop report from either of them, I knew that the only way to reliably find mafia was to go back to post analysis.

Since we haven't had much content this game compared to others, I just started at the very beginning of D1 and worked my way through. That's where I noticed an immediate difference between KY and Orange. KY floated the idea of a nolynch, Orange floated the idea of lynching Voe. Discussion kept on going and Orange started the lynch train on Voe. I came back, read through the posts, gave my thoughts on nolynch vs lynch, and pointed out that I thought it suspicious how quickly Voe gained enough votes to be lynched.

Instead of actually responding to any of my points, Orange immediately told me to "try again" and called me the scummiest player without any reasoning. The responses from everyone else to my post were calm and reasonable. Orange continued to attack me with a whole bunch of WIFOM and conjecture, as well as a flimsy attack on my post style; if you really want to go back and look at my post history you'll see that it's consistent between all alignments. Orange then skips over obvious logical steps, such as nolynching as much as we can, and finishes up D1 with a weak admission that nolynching makes more sense and still calling me scummy without providing any actual reasoning as to why.

This is just what happened during D1. When comparing Orange to KY D2, it was very obvious to me that one player was scummier than the other. I then made a post with these findings and placed my vote onto Orange. That's when Orange went aggressive and everything just devolved into a mess. The content of Orange's posts the rest of that day don't matter as much to me as the pattern behind them. Orange is just trying to get any lynch to happen. He's not trying to find scum.

His behavior on D1 and his reactions to my post D2 were scummy. D2 he was not being helpful. I'll just let KY summarize this for me.

"I don't like his line of reasoning, as it seems oriented around making his decisions seem right rather than helping town. iLTS, on the other hand, has been very helpful, and his logic seems very pro-Town."

I specifically told you to "Try again" because you dismissed an entire discussion with a single word.

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On 1/13/2020 at 12:52 PM, iLikeToSnipe said:

Well, that's interesting. Here's what I've been thinking about the pros/cons of a nolynch.


Pros:

  • One more cop report D2
  • No MYLO D2
  • Mafia can't use the flip to avoid making a slip

Cons:

  • One less confirmed cop D2
  • Confirm D1 cop report of player lynched (assuming they gave their actual report...)

 

Unless there's something I'm missing, a nolynch seems like the best D1 option for town 9 times out of 10 in this setup. Just thinking as a mafia player (which I'm at least a little good at), I would 100% want to lynch a player D1. Time is the most important thing in this setup, give town enough of it and they will win. Ergo, time is the enemy of the mafia player. They need a lynch D1 to maximize their chance at winning.

So, I do find it very interesting that a vote on Voe gets proposed and a bandwagon immediately forms on him.

 

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2 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Sometime before Jeod's incredibly early bedtime, if you please, I got stuff to do tomorrow :p

I actually have work tomorrow myself. But I'm also busy right this second and will get to it later.

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3 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

I'm assuming a 24h phase. What time is hammer?

If it's not been changed, 6 Eastern.

I'll be busy most of tomorrow though so if you're going to be waiting around for more of me I probably won't be able to deliver tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

If it's not been changed, 6 Eastern.

I'll be busy most of tomorrow though so if you're going to be waiting around for more of me I probably won't be able to deliver tomorrow.

I also am busy/away most of the day tomorrow.

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On 1/15/2020 at 5:14 AM, OrangeP47 said:

I agree the Voe kill didn't make much sense if ILTS is mafia (unless he's playing some serious deflection...), but as I said D1, we have too many town reports and just the right amount of mafia reports so I'm inclined to believe him, especially now that we have a bigger picture. Hell, I'm confident enough I'd be down for voting KY *now* but I can understand if everyone thinks that's a bit too bold.

@OrangeP47 do you have any followup for this reasoning you had before, which is basically a town read on iLTS? How can the Voe kill make sense if iLTS is mafia (which you currently contend)?

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1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

@OrangeP47 do you have any followup for this reasoning you had before, which is basically a town read on iLTS? How can the Voe kill make sense if iLTS is mafia (which you currently contend)?

At the time I agree it's a town read, but with the perspective we have now (see this day's discussion we had regarding the KY kill), it could be that he was banking on Voe being the insane cop (having copped him town N0) and didn't want him to get further results that would have outed him nearly instantly.  Basically, in that post you just quoted, I was pretty much just wrong if we go with the perspective that Voe was the insane cop, and that if ILTS was thinking Voe was the insane cop, he'd have every reason to kill him.

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On 1/15/2020 at 7:43 AM, Killing_You said:

So it's down to either Orange or me, eh? Well, in that case, let's do this: We stick to the plan. I'll investigate Orange, he'll investigate me, and the others can take their pick.

In addition to KY's scum read on Orange (seen in other posts of his), this post is affecting me a bit too. He basically announced that he's investigating Orange, so iLTS as mafia would have had less reason to kill KY on N2. This game of deflection has multiple angles all supporting the same conclusion: iLTS' innocence.

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1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

In addition to KY's scum read on Orange (seen in other posts of his), this post is affecting me a bit too. He basically announced that he's investigating Orange, so iLTS as mafia would have had less reason to kill KY on N2. This game of deflection has multiple angles all supporting the same conclusion: iLTS' innocence.

I mean, there's always the possibility of a frame job too. I'll admit, KY did announce it, I'd argue it's not locked it, but it is a good point. I know I'm town but it just has to be a big brain play from ILTS. If that's what you want to base it on though I won't be mad.

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On 1/15/2020 at 12:29 AM, ChopBam said:

If iLTS scum:

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        

At the time, assuming iLikeToScum, he wouldn't have known which of you was sane. If I had died, my scum read on iLTS may have been more legitimize in KY's brain to reconsider his scum read on you, Orange. Even if he investigated you and got a town read, he may have considered himself naive, yes, but if KY considered himself naive, that would have made you the sane cop by necessity and iLTS would have been outed because of his multiple mafia reports (impossible to be sane or naive). Pressure's back on you, @iLikeToSnipe. Killing_You couldn't stay alive in your scum case because whether he investigated Orange as naive or sane, you would have been outed by logical process.

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1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

At the time, assuming iLikeToScum, he wouldn't have known which of you was sane. If I had died, my scum read on iLTS may have been more legitimize in KY's brain to reconsider his scum read on you, Orange. Even if he investigated you and got a town read, he may have considered himself naive, yes, but if KY considered himself naive, that would have made you the sane cop by necessity and iLTS would have been outed because of his multiple mafia reports (impossible to be sane or naive). Pressure's back on you, @iLikeToSnipe. Killing_You couldn't stay alive in your scum case because whether he investigated Orange as naive or sane, you would have been outed by logical process.

I want to say I had that thought and then forgot it... but I might have not... I had a lot of thoughts about the charts and some got lost though :gonk:

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1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

At the time, assuming iLikeToScum, he wouldn't have known which of you was sane. If I had died, my scum read on iLTS may have been more legitimize in KY's brain to reconsider his scum read on you, Orange. Even if he investigated you and got a town read, he may have considered himself naive, yes, but if KY considered himself naive, that would have made you the sane cop by necessity and iLTS would have been outed because of his multiple mafia reports (impossible to be sane or naive). Pressure's back on you, @iLikeToSnipe. Killing_You couldn't stay alive in your scum case because whether he investigated Orange as naive or sane, you would have been outed by logical process.

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying that if I was mafia I would have had to kill KY?

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Just now, OrangeP47 said:

I want to say I had that thought and then forgot it... but I might have not... I had a lot of thoughts about the charts and some got lost though :gonk:

I know I've joked about sodoku but seriously I should have played some before looking at these charts it would have helped.

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1 minute ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying that if I was mafia I would have had to kill KY?

Honestly.... seriously... sodoku.... it doesn't matter D2 which of me or KY is the sane or naive.... the important thing is ILTS can't be the sane cop.

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Hold on, lemme look at the Orange scum chart too...
 

On 1/15/2020 at 12:29 AM, ChopBam said:

If OrangeP47 scum:

 

Player N0 Report N1 Report Sane Insane Naive Paranoid
Voe iLTS/Town -        
Killing_You Chop/Town Voe/Town        
iLikeToSnipe Voe/Mafia Chop/Mafia        
ChopBam KY/Mafia Orange/Mafia        
OrangeP47 Voe/Town KY/Town        

Hmm, I guess the sanity could have been shoved onto Voe as well. Screw that Voe guy. :gonk:

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Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Do a chart of Voe being sane?

I mean, I'm pretty sure Voe is the insane cop, but doing a chart of Voe as Sane might show how he can't be the sane cop cause of conflicts elsewhere maybe so it's easier to see that he's the insane cop.

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