Games [GAME OVER] Tiberian Sun: Reborn Mafia I

[Category 5 Hurricane]

The play of last resort when you can think of nothing and would rather let a game of numbers tell you what to do.

[Shade939]

5 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

The play of last resort when you can think of nothing and would rather let a game of numbers tell you what to do.

Sure is a shame that there's a built in counter for the Nod Spy unit in the form of them being incapable of getting anything other than one result with their day kill...

[iLikeToSnipe]

3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Sure is a shame that there's a built in counter for the Nod Spy unit in the form of them being incapable of getting anything other than one result with their day kill...

What would be your next move if somebody shoots, gets stuck, you got them lynched because "they are likely to be the spy", and they aren't?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Right, well, you can keep playing the numbers game, just know it can lead you astray. For example, it could have been argued that Mojoman didn't use his weapon during Day 1 even after he said he was going to, because he is a Spy and therefore knew it would jam and only increase the suspicion on him. That would be an argument supported by the numbers game, but it was wrong.

[Shade939]

Just now, iLikeToSnipe said:

What would be your next move if somebody shoots, gets stuck, you got them lynched because "they are likely to be the spy", and they aren't?

How many players got stuck results in total, clearly you would still be picking between those players though.

[Retaliation]

Shade has obviously never rolled four 1s on 5 d6.

[Retaliation]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

How many players got stuck results in total, clearly you would still be picking between those players though.

Actually this is a fair point.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

You can't really play that game anyway because Spies are just likely to not shoot. Unless you want to turn that argument around and start rounding up the people who haven't shot and say the spy must be among them, which obviously they are.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

How many players got stuck results in total, clearly you would still be picking between those players though.

What we're trying to get at is that you have absolutely no way of knowing if a stuck result is because somebody is a spy. You're the only one who keeps on going on about this. It is true that somebody who shoots and doesn't get stuck can't be the spy. That doesn't mean the opposite is true though, everyone can get stuck when they shoot so somebody getting stuck has no bearing on whether or not they are the spy. It literally has zero meaning, there's nothing you can infer from it. The best you can get is somebody who doesn't understand the logic behind this being afraid to shoot.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You can't really play that game anyway because Spies are just likely to not shoot. Unless you want to turn that argument around and start rounding up the people who haven't shot and say the spy must be among them, which obviously they are.

Here's another point that is less unlikely given we have confirmation of a new role. What if the spy role was changed to something like 50% stuck 0% hit? There's no scenario I can think of where somebody having a stuck result should result in their lynch or contribute in any way to a read of them being mafia. If we're going to lynch them, this isn't going to be one of the reasons why. This whole topic is distracting from the real scum hunting.

[Shade939]

Are you people even trying to win the game as GDI?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

No, I'm neutral. We covered this.

[Retaliation]

What if scum killed Orange because they didn't want him arguing against Shade's nonsense?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

@Killing_You, are you able to confirm that the unit stat sheet we were given before the game still applies to all units present on it?

[iLikeToSnipe]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

Are you people even trying to win the game as GDI?

Shade, can you tell me what exactly you would think of somebody shooting at a target and getting a result of stuck? Do you think they are for sure scum? Do you think they are more or less likely to be scum? What do you think I should think about you if you tried to shoot somebody and got a stuck result?

[Shade939]

I believe it's far more logical to assume a role works as stated on the day one list, rather than arguing against it.

[Retaliation]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

I believe it's far more logical to assume a role works as stated on the day one list, rather than arguing against it.

Unless you're scum and you know the list is wrong.

[Shade939]

1 minute ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Shade, can you tell me what exactly you would think of somebody shooting at a target and getting a result of stuck? Do you think they are for sure scum? Do you think they are more or less likely to be scum? What do you think I should think about you if you tried to shoot somebody and got a stuck result?

Based on the information provided by the GM, it would be a better indicator of them being scum rather than them not, and it raise the possibility of any cop reports on them being wrong.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

You can combine cop results with the weapon usage as well. If a cop has a result on someone who has successfully fired, that person can't be a spy. That helps with them determining their own sanity.

[Killing_You]

3 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

@Killing_You, are you able to confirm that the unit stat sheet we were given before the game still applies to all units present on it?

To paraphrase something you said in APB 1: The roles on the sheet might not work as advertised, but they probably do. It's meant to be a guideline, not a 100%-accurate reference, as adjustments can be made for balance. Such adjustments would be as minor as possible, though.

That is all I'm willing to say on the matter. I'm trying to keep mechanic questions-and-answers to a minimum.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Alright, thanks. I was a little hesitant to ask, but I didn't want this topic of "It might be changed" to completely take over.

[iLikeToSnipe]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

Based on the information provided by the GM, it would be a better indicator of them being scum rather than them not, and it raise the possibility of any cop reports on them being wrong.

Here's why you're wrong (and I wish Orange was here to tell me if I'm doing this right).

Everyone on the chart has a chance to get a stuck result. The spy has the highest at 100%, officer has 50%, and everyone else is 25%. So let's say somebody gets a stuck result. If they were a spy they obviously knew that would happen. If they were an officer it's just a coin toss. Everyone else is basically just rolling a 1d4 and hoping they don't get a 1.

Instead of looking at it as player -> result -> role, let's just look at role -> result.

If all the light infantry (assuming 5) were to shoot, the odds that none of them would get stuck is 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~23%. So, there's a slightly greater chance that one gets stuck than none. It's statistically likely that at least one of them would get a stuck result.

Expanding on that, lets look at calculating the odds for each side.

GDI: light infantry * officer * riot trooper * Umagon * medic -> 0.77 * 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~16%. A 16% chance that nobody in GDI ever gets a stuck result.

We obviously know that one Nod member will get a stuck result. Calculating out the other two, it's about a 56% chance that neither of them get a stuck result.

100% chance that Nod gets a stuck result if they all shoot. 84% chance that at least one GDI gets a stuck result if they all shoot. What does that tell us? There's only a 16% chance that the person who fired and got a stuck result was Nod. If we were to assign everyone a number and draw it out of a hat to pick a lynch (i.e. a random lynch) we'd have a 3 in 11 chance -> ~27% chance of getting Nod.

In other words, your logic has a worse chance at picking out somebody who's Nod than just lynching someone completely at random. Please stop.

[Shade939]

9 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Here's why you're wrong (and I wish Orange was here to tell me if I'm doing this right).

Everyone on the chart has a chance to get a stuck result. The spy has the highest at 100%, officer has 50%, and everyone else is 25%. So let's say somebody gets a stuck result. If they were a spy they obviously knew that would happen. If they were an officer it's just a coin toss. Everyone else is basically just rolling a 1d4 and hoping they don't get a 1.

Instead of looking at it as player -> result -> role, let's just look at role -> result.

If all the light infantry (assuming 5) were to shoot, the odds that none of them would get stuck is 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~23%. So, there's a slightly greater chance that one gets stuck than none. It's statistically likely that at least one of them would get a stuck result.

Expanding on that, lets look at calculating the odds for each side.

GDI: light infantry * officer * riot trooper * Umagon * medic -> 0.77 * 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~16%. A 16% chance that nobody in GDI ever gets a stuck result.

We obviously know that one Nod member will get a stuck result. Calculating out the other two, it's about a 56% chance that neither of them get a stuck result.

100% chance that Nod gets a stuck result if they all shoot. 84% chance that at least one GDI gets a stuck result if they all shoot. What does that tell us? There's only a 16% chance that the person who fired and got a stuck result was Nod. If we were to assign everyone a number and draw it out of a hat to pick a lynch (i.e. a random lynch) we'd have a 3 in 11 chance -> ~27% chance of getting Nod.

In other words, your logic has a worse chance at picking out somebody who's Nod than just lynching someone completely at random. Please stop.

So, out of everyone who couldn't role claim, only two f them should get a stuck result make it a 50/50 with two Spies?

[Voe]

36 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Sure is a shame that there's a built in counter for the Nod Spy unit in the form of them being incapable of getting anything other than one result with their day kill...

I don't mind that actually. It's shit for the spy, but if a spy goes around blasting his stuck weapon, the fault is on him. He can just refrain from shooting, as we all should this early in the game.

28 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You can't really play that game anyway because Spies are just likely to not shoot. Unless you want to turn that argument around and start rounding up the people who haven't shot and say the spy must be among them, which obviously they are.

This is the vibe I'm getting from Shade today. Not yesterday, though. Yesterday he was all about that ammo.

17 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You can combine cop results with the weapon usage as well. If a cop has a result on someone who has successfully fired, that person can't be a spy. That helps with them determining their own sanity.

Assuming Nod is 50% spy, this means they have 2 members who do not get stuck. Should the cop investigate those per your suggestion, he'll get very bamboozled.

__

About the stuck percentage indicating suspicion, my excel sheet (albeit outdated) tells me that with 4 players including 2 Chem spies, Nod has a 250% chance of rolling a stuck among them. If we have 2 officers (cops), we roll at about 300%. In essence, if everyone fired, we should get 5-6 stuck results. Half of them would be Nod, the other half GDI. While it's true it's better than lynching at random, in the late stages of game, if you have literally nothing else to go on, a 50%-50% is a pretty poor ratio for a lynch. 

[iLikeToSnipe]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

So, out of everyone who couldn't role claim, only two f them should get a stuck result make it a 50/50 with two Spies?

I have no idea what you are even trying to state or imply. What do you mean "couldn't role claim"?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

2 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

So, out of everyone who couldn't role claim, only two f them should get a stuck result make it a 50/50 with two Spies?

It doesn't matter. There is no reason everyone should shoot.

[Voe]

Especially when you realise it's the GDI cops who will jam most likely.

[Shade939]

2 minutes ago, Voe said:

Especially when you realise it's the GDI cops who will jam most likely.

There's only one cop on the role sheet?

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

There's only one cop on the role sheet?

There could be multiple cops.

[Voe]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

There's only one cop on the role sheet?

There is no jumpjet on the rolesheet. Moreover, the rolesheet specifically describes the sane and the insane cop, omitting the naive and the paranoid. I think there's a chance for both sane and insane cops to be in the game. Especially if multiple chameleon's are around.