Games [GAME OVER] Apocalypse Rising Mafia I

[Mojoman]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Yeah how could we overlook this?

Then again... D1 Chaos...

[FRAYDO]

Mojoman vying for best D1 player yet again

[Category 5 Hurricane]

2 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Yeah how could we overlook this?

I don't know, how could you overlook it? I thought that was obvious.

[Louis]

16 minutes ago, Jeod said:

It’s the weekend. Saturday night in fact. And prime discussion time. Why hop off so soon?

You know for someone who is works on the weekend at 4am I should be in bed too

[Louis]

*who works (my grammer is so bad)

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I don't know, how could you overlook it? I thought that was obvious.

I mean, I'm *trying* to play Battletech but you cretins keep posting.

[Mojoman]

2 minutes ago, FRAYDO said:

Mojoman vying for best D1 player yet again

I'm just looking to get maximum bants with my shot tbh.

[FRAYDO]

*grammar

[Category 5 Hurricane]

It's like I said before, while the statistics are stronger in this game because of how the roles are set up, an "unexpected" result will tilt things further off course.

[FRAYDO]

damnit the posts are too fast for what would have been a witty comeback. Game ruined

[Category 5 Hurricane]

If Shade actually did get the stuck result that was originally attributed to him, his statistical chance of being a Conscript would be 30% instead of 75%. Big swing.

[Mojoman]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

It's like I said before, while the statistics are stronger in this game because of how the roles are set up, an "unexpected" result will tilt things further off course.

If all remaining conscripts practiced, would that be viable? By d2 we would have better scum reads, I assume the allies wouldn't get notifed (however they get notified) until start of d2, so conscripts would still be able to kinda clesr themselves with miss, but their hits would be better planned if they do.

 

And anyone with a stuck chance would not be conscript.

[Mojoman]

If that makes a lick of sense.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Having all the Conscripts known for certain by the Mafia but not by Town probably wouldn't work in our favor.

[Shade939]

1 minute ago, Mojoman said:

If all remaining conscripts practiced, would that be viable? By d2 we would have better scum reads, I assume the allies wouldn't get notifed (however they get notified) until start of d2, so conscripts would still be able to kinda clesr themselves with miss, but their hits would be better planned if they do.

 

And anyone with a stuck chance would not be conscript.

That is a fair point, 75% miss chance then after they practice instead of the 52%, although the kill chance does also increase. They do have to shoot that same day also though.

And that probably does mean Scum would know that you're a conscript role to balance that out.

[Shade939]

And to clarify what I mean by Scum knowing you're a Conscript role, Scum probably get a message saying Shade939 decided to practice last night, instead of a message saying a Conscript practiced last night.

It doesn't specify in the Conscript role sheet what information is actually sent to Mafia if you practice.

[Mojoman]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

And to clarify what I mean by Scum knowing you're a Conscript role, Scum probably get a message saying Shade939 decided to practice last night, instead of a message saying a Conscript practiced last night.

It doesn't specify in the Conscript role sheet what information is actually sent to Mafia if you practice.

Fair point. But if our plan is to know who the conscripts are, would it matter if Scum knew it slightly earlier than us? This is assuming they'd know start of d2 and not when the action is sent in, which makes sense to me

 

[Category 5 Hurricane]

All these types of ideas will sound better in a vacuum, but they sort of fall apart when you consider that anyone can pretend to be a Conscript.

[Jeod]

Shoot them like watermelon!

[Category 5 Hurricane]

This is why on an individual level, I don't think Shade firing was so bad for us. But if we start mass shooting, I'm sure more than Conscripts will fire, and then everything will be muddled.

[Shade939]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

This is why on an individual level, I don't think Shade firing was so bad for us. But if we start mass shooting, I'm sure more than Conscripts will fire, and then everything will be muddled.

The point would be that only the Conscripts fire since it's highly risky for Mafia to claim to be a Conscript and then fail to get a miss result for their weapon.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Sure, but again it's barely better than a coinflip to get a miss result. Conscripts can get any result, so even if a result appears that isn't a miss, you can't be sure why. Scum could use this to get free shots.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Town power roles might want to hide as a conscript as well.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

For example, Retaliations stuck result doesn't say a whole lot. Two roles were eliminated as possibilities, but his chance of being scum only increased from 25% to 33%. Tells us next to nothing, though the individual chances of Retal being a town power role might be of interest to them.

[Shade939]

2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

For example, Retaliations stuck result doesn't say a whole lot. Two roles were eliminated as possibilities, but his chance of being scum only increased from 25% to 33%. Tells us next to nothing, though the individual chances of Retal being a town power role might be of interest to them.

It does say something though, for example Retaliation could literally be the Spy and by using his shot to get a stuck result he's effectively doing a soft claim to try and draw out the real Radar Town, and try and draw Town protective abilities to himself.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

His chance of being a Spy at this point is 22%. Higher than everything else, and much higher than any other player, but just 22%.

It is a valid point to keep in mind, though, that certainly could be something he is trying to do.

[Retaliation]

2 hours ago, Killing_You said:

I'll call that bluff.

##vote Retaliation

Say hello to my little friend!

1 hour ago, Killing_You said:

Oh, I forgot. 

##unvote

Coward.

[iLikeToSnipe]

1 hour ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Actually I'm kinda on the fence about it. I don't think I would put up a fight about it either way. While it's true that a miss result strongly suggests a Conscript role, by contrast any result other than miss doesn't say a whole lot. And the chances of getting a miss as a Conscript is still only 56%.

Having 2 or 3 Conscripts effectively cleared though, could be powerful. That could be a strong town core and could flip Mafia into wanting to kill the clears rather than the power roles.

Trying to keep up with everything, but I really don't like this. People who miss aren't "effectively cleared" because a town role has a very high chance to miss. There is certainly the statistical argument that they are more likely to be that role, but as we saw last game people can still hit or miss when they're more likely to have the other result. Treating it more than just the percent chance likelihood and wandering into the "confirmed town" territory was wrong then and it's wrong now.

Anyone who misses is more likely to be a conscript, but we're missing another piece of the puzzle. That's the piece mafia has, because they know everybody's alignment already. The only side that gets any close to confirmed is mafia, it gives them a better picture as to who they should try night killing.

Conscripts shooting everyone willy-nilly has a higher chance at killing town than mafia, gives mafia an advantage at finding power roles, and eliminates future kill attempts that could be used against revealed mafia. I'm always sus of Shade, so this doesn't scum read to me for him. Cat5 says he's neutral on it, but his words seem otherwise. His posts about are only about how "powerful" it could be to town while discussing none of the disadvantages.

Scum reading Cat5, but not enough to vote on D1. I'm in favor of a nolynch today.

##vote nolynch

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Go fuck yourself, I'm neutral.

Also I think you're blatantly trying to accuse me of taking one side on the issue when I've made plenty of arguments in both directions.

##vote iLikeToSnipe

[iLikeToSnipe]

16 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Go fuck yourself, I'm neutral.

Also I think you're blatantly trying to accuse me of taking one side on the issue when I've made plenty of arguments in both directions.

##vote iLikeToSnipe

An astoundingly deep response from Cat5.