Category5

I was considering flipping to nolynch, but pretty much held my vote where it was because even though Shade was about to die, he was holding all of his cards to his chest. He does the same as mafia.

Only thing going on up here is some impressively low temps (talking -20F) and worse wind chills. Not much snow to speak of.

LOL resolve daykills by signing into APB and having a 1v1.

Just don't listen to Shade, and you'll be fine. Also "Nobody here but us trees!"

I also tracked him, thought he might have been arguing Shade's case because he knew he was town.

As has been said, it's normal either way. Cults are terribly hard to balance because they can win so quickly. Without day actions and this number of players, the Cult has the fastest possible win, needing the leader to survive two nights and convert two players. Even a perfect Town play can't win fast enough, unless the Cult leader is among the first two lynches. As such Cults are very swingy. They either win easily or lose hard. There is rarely an inbetween, and as such cults aren't a popular mechanic. Include the dynamic that players don't like having their alignments switched, cults will always leave someone unhappy. If I'm not mistaken, the only thing preventing Jeod from converting was Retaliation jailing him or his target, or Jeod trying to convert Mafia. On N1 Jeod had a 25% chance of targeting Mafia, mixed with a 25% chance that either Jeod or Jeod's target would be jailed. Meaning overall, something like 18% chance of death, and something like a total chance of 42% that he dies or fails to convert. (I'm not totally sure I'm doing the math on this right, I feel like something is off. Mixing percentages is weird.) The chances of both would be higher on N2, provided that Retaliation and neither scum were killed or lynched. If either Retaliation or scum are killed, then both of those chances go way down and Jeod's path becomes very easy. Just needs two nights. Edit I'm also leaving out the chance that the converted target gets NKed or lynched, but that's just too much to factor in over this.

I'm going to need a new F5 key.

You think there are two mafia. The game would end sooner than your template if there were three.

Added the missing numbers for you.

That's a little lackluster. Could you include the numbers each faction has?

In case I wasn't clear, I want you to prove that we need to "skip a lynch in order to try and get the game to end on a day phase".

Lay out your work.

Are you quite sure nobody is trying to save Shade?

In the OP he suggested there might be a TP or Neutral, and then in the D1 post he only warned about a possible TP. So I think there is one.

30% Mafia with an apparent TP as well, for a total of 40% Hostile?

Well, that's besides the fact that there probably isn't 3 scum, so at least one of them isn't.

There are three votes on NoLynch.

That scum doc tho

Or maybe it's both of them.

These games have previously had a 100% rate of having a spy in them. There could always be a first, but then, the scum team would know of that first time before anyone else, wouldn't they?

I thought Jeod was referring to someone mentioning nolynch. Huh.

Anybody have a pocket Oracle we can ask?