OrangeP47

I mean I did spend my second night post telling Jeod not to shoot you, what more do you want

No, what you do is look for anyone that suddenly changes positions after a day. Look for the people that have "swapped teams".

I dunno, there is a really cool setup that Sunflower played over there that'd be pretty simple to bring over here that's 100% deduction. No mafia, only cult. Cult leader invulnerable, converts 1 person per night, but if a cultist gets lynched the entire cult dies and loses. No special powers.

I mean to be fair and also regarding the previous comment, MU will die on the hill of "people post less as scum" so if I ever rand scum there I have a free pass. It's how I was universally townread during last champs. Unfortunately, the last scum alive was like literally a clone of me and had me pocketed so he slipped through.

This is pulled from the wider community, MU is just where I'm at when I hear it. It's discussion that occurs during champs when people from all communities are around.

Here's the thing, I'm trying to improve you people

It's not even stats really but the concept of Rand- Rand= and Rand+. Killing Coolrock would be Rand= because it's literally random when he's inactive if he's the mafia. Ideally you always want to do Rand+ actions, ie, actions that have a greater than Random chance of hitting scum. Think of it as a zero-sum game. You can argue we had little to go on, but we did not have NOTHING to go on, and we still had time to try. It is *always* possible to do a Rand+ action. Me starting a fight with you is a Rand+ action even if neither of us die, which is why I said I was happy with the outcome even though you didn't die after I shot you, because I got everyone to talk about something productive.

I mean in the wider mafia community chopping the inactives is generally seen as a newbie play and I was regarding Cat 5 as a veteran.

I mean I do see where Cat 5 is coming from, to a degree, but you can't argue "My argument is right because I had insider info I was passing off as a town being a detective"

Having inside info spoils the data pool Cat 5. That's why insider trading is illegal, as is betting on sports when you're an athlete.

I mean I got you with greater than 22.2% accuracy

All I need to argue is that by reading someone's posts we have a greater than 22.2% chance of hitting scum to be right Cat 5.

Taking a course of action that has a 22.2% chance of success vs taking an action that has, theoretically, a greater than 50% chance of success because you've used deductive reasoning is the wrong thing to do. You're presenting the false choice logical fallacy.

The difference is I actually know statistics

I mean hell, I correctly identified you as scum using it, which is the point, regardless of what Coolrock is or is not.

My play is still correct statistically.

Granted, it didn't matter since Jeod was scum, but I decided to just focus on dinner because I was busy playing with my new smart watch.

I was gonna come in here after dinner and ask Jeod to shoot Cat 5.

Wow, I should have just stayed the course on Cat 5. I'm actually very second guessy as town, and apparently it was my, and our, undoing.

So Jeod, if you're planning on shooting Shade right out of the gate at SoD, can you maybe not? Even if theoretically it may be a good idea (maybe), there are possibly *even better* ideas and we should probably discuss it.

I have a feeling this is a game where scum has done shocking little and we're just ripping ourselves apart.

I'll bring him a housewarming pie, then he can attack.

Lol what timing.

I mean, you DID kill him.

For the umpteenth time, it's not the what, it's the how.