Category 5 Hurricane

Was what you got the SpyGlass?

Different thief. Or at least a different action. The first one stole from me. The second changed the destination of my actions.

Oh! Ok, that's right, I forgot that OrangeP47 wasn't investigated, so it was necessary for Retaliation to roleblock. Ok, good. I thought everyone had gone bonkers! Turns out it's just me!

Nevermind, I know what's going on now. Well, kinda. I'm completely baffled by some of the responses so far today, but I now understand the evidence drop. Someone has an action that causes me to change the target of my actions, and so both the item I recovered (which was my Spyglass!) and Chaos's evidence were totally removed from the vault. The removal of my recovered item does indeed confirm that FRAYDO's evidence must be true as it's worth 16 points on it's own. So, now that my SpyGlass has been stolen for a second time, someone out there knows who the thief is. That person recovered a SpyGlass and Crowbar from someone on the previous night. Whoever did this knows who the thief is. If that person is not OrangeP47, I want you to speak up.

What the fuck is going on?!

Ok, so there have been some complications in the vault. There are some items in the vault now that were recovered, and I think it's possible that those things have impacted the evidence progress bar. What I'm going to do is try to eliminate that x-factor as a possibility by moving one of the pieces of evidence, the one that we got from Chaos (which I think might be fake) back to the locker. I'm also going to send out one of the recovered items from the vault to someone to identify that variable, If I'm right about this, there should be no change to the evidence progress bar. If it moves backwards, then we have evidence that the piece on Chaos is actually true, no matter how much. If it moves all the way back to 20%, then we need to switch both pieces of evidence, so Chaos' is true and FRAYDO's is not. If it moves back to 23% or any number less than 26% but more than 20%, then the progress bar was affected by the items in the vault. It can't be that placing evidence in the truth box adds 3%, because you can't add 10s and 3s together to get 100%. That's why I determined that one of the pieces of evidence is probably fake. If it moves forward for some reason, then we might have direct evidence that these extra things I have here actually have moved the progress bar, and moving the evidence between boxes might not be moving the progress bar at all. Unless it moves forward to 30%, in which case I think false evidence counts for -4%. In Short: Theoretical Numbers Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece True Evidence in Box: +6% per piece Expected result of 26% if FRAYDO's piece is true, 20% if false. This would mean 5 pieces of true evidence, and 2 fakes, total 7. OR Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece True Evidence in Box: +10% per piece False Evidence in Box: -4% per piece Expected result of 30% if FRAYDO's piece is true, 20% if false. This would mean 5 pieces of true evidence, and any number of fakes. OR Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece True Evidence in Box: ??? False Evidence in Box: ??? Recovered Items: +3% I don't think that this path is likely, but for the sake of dotting and crossing, I'm including it as possible. @Chaos_Knight awww where did your paranoia go? You had all sorts of theories about how Orange might be telling the truth or that I'm lying for this or that reason and I'm protecting VERTi60 and everything isn't as it seems...and then you get an investigation result in which the only thing proven is that VERTi60 hasn't lied about being innocent or Serbian, and you just concede? Why can't VERTi60 be lying now? You've been making up conspiracies all day, did your imagination run out? I have to admit though, the closing stages of your argument did start to make me waver. I'm not quite as certain about you as I have been. Still totally sold on FRAYDO and OrangeP47, but I might replace you with Killing_You on my suspect list, because it looks like he's trying to set the stage for explaining why OrangeP47 might survive even if he's telling the "truth". You know, despite the fact that we've narrowed down the thief suspects down to one person. @Retaliation speaking of which, Chaos can't be the thief. He wasn't holding my SpyGlass when investigated and he would not have been able to hide it. I suppose there are others that could theoretically be the thief, (you, Mojoman, Killing_You, TheIrishman) but for all of them I have reasons to believe they are not....but then there is Killing_You again. I'm going to have to review him when I can.

Also, I don't care if hammer time moves.

Fuck you RNG.

I actually don't have a defense for VERTi60. My case is all about OrangeP47. If it weren't for him, I'd probably be trying to decide between going for FRAYDO again or investigating VERTi60. If I'm wrong, we're absolutely investigating VERTi60 next.

I don't fully trust them, as you can see with them leading my "ur wong stupd" scum team. Killing_You's Grenade seems more like it would be a scum item, and Mojoman has acted against the actions we discussed the previous night. I think I may gain an answer to that latter mystery, though.

That is making do some thinking. If I'm wrong, we're looking at an entirely different set of scum. Probably. Like, if OrangeP47 has BP, that means it's more likely Mojoman and Killing_You are scum, perhaps paired with either VERTi60 or FRAYDO. The problem with that thought, however, is that Mojoman and Killing_You are on your train.

Yes, this is true... Maybe it's because they feel like they don't need to fear the Grenade. Like, perhaps they have daytime BP? And having it used was favorable to them, to at least a small degree.

That's odd, because that's exactly what I think OrangeP47 is. However, even in the case where I am wrong, I at least gain a benefit that I'm not making the totally wrong choice, because I'm keeping a BP item in play. If you are wrong, there is no silver lining.

Mmm, now it's just wait and hope FRAYDO gets back before hammer, isn't it? ##voteinvestigate OrangeP47

For that matter, that question applies to everyone who is voting VERTi60. You have a claimed doctor on deck who will die if he's telling the truth and not investigated. Why are your votes where they are? Ah, Chaos. You've gotten way too predictable. I did ask myself the question "What if he's just BP himself?" and that question led me towards the idea that he's the scum counter to Mojoman and Killing_You's weapons. I've got one more line of attack I forgot about. Gimmie a minute to search OrangeP47's posts.

If you are telling the truth and we don't investigate you* you will die

OrangeP47, if you are town and telling the truth right now, you will die, and possibly have your item taken from you so that town can't control where it goes. Why are you holding your vote where it is?

I haven't seen an item in the vault yet, but I'd be surprised if I'm not given the description.

And then, lastly, I trust everyone who is currently voting for OrangeP47, and there are several suspects on the VERTi60 wagon. I think it's a clear choice.

Now, I've done more thinking on his claim over the past day, and I have more reasons to suspect that he isn't telling the truth. First of all, I think he's telling the truth that he has a Bullet Proof vest, but I think he's lying about everything else. Why? Let's start with the meta standpoint. His claim makes him sound like he's a doctor. He protects another player, and doesn't learn if the player he protected was attacked or not. (Usually the player attacked would find out, though) That's fine on it's own. But his claim is that he uses his BP and stands infront of a target to protect him. It doesn't make sense that a player who stands infront of another would not know if he was shot at. If he was a doctor role, he'd have something else, not a BP vest. That's not a very good argument either, because maybe he's a bodyguard instead and would know if he was shot, but there's more. Before Orange's claim, while he was sounding rather defeated, he was scared to tell anything about himself because he'd be targeted. He then remembered that his item would not have it's description revealed upon inspection, which made his fear unneccessary. Then, when he finally claimed, he gave the full item and description. Why did he suddenly feel fine revealing the description? Sure, he was being pressured to roleclaim, but he could have stopped with just the item, right? I think OrangeP47 felt relieved that we wouldn't find out that he was lying just by seeing the item after his investigation. We won't be told what it's really for, and that's what he's worried about. What is he worried about? The real use of his BP is that he is BP during Days. Why would he be that? To counter the Town roles that control a Gun and Grenade.

I know, I did that to protect from early hammer. More coming.

Alright, the case for investigating OrangeP47 has now entered stage two. I've already stated that I think it's best to investigate OrangeP47 now, whether he is telling the truth or not. If he's telling the truth, he's dead. He may even have his item stolen from him. if we investigate him, we keep the item in our control. Furthermore, OrangeP47 will stay alive and be clear, because scum will have to kill the person they think I (the presumed nominee. I've gotten more votes then any nominee ever. I'll organize the evidence so well that scum's head will spin, and they'll pay for the new wall around the vault, too.) will pass the BP to. If he isn't telling the truth, we'll likely find out because the item either doesn't exist, doesn't match the description he claimed, he has my Spy Glass, or if he's hostile. There is no bad result possible from this investigation.

Is there something else besides Chaos' claim that makes you think scum has a tracker?

............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ The claimed tracker was locked up.

In both cases, I think the best course of action is to investigate him.