Category 5 Hurricane

Indeed, I could work out the expected math for you based on what I do. Can't do it ahead of time, as we might find more evidence today.

If you don't do as I say, I'll be able to figure it out using the numbers as I've learned so far, so I'm not worried about that. I AM worried about the Grenade being in there, though.

Any of you being Retal and Irish

Uh, ##nominate Category5 I guess. Though if any of you were to want to be nominated, I'd accept that, as long as you follow my directions in sorting evidence.

Alright, so here's my case that I want to pursue today. I think the scum team is FRAYDO, OrangeP47, and if there is a third, Chaos_Knight. If I lock this into place, a couple of things that have been dangling in my mind fit into place really well. First of all, pretty much all game, there hasn't been a significant counter-wagon for investigations. Everyone has been exceptionally agreeable. That's very weird. That generally only happens when town is the target being lynched. Scum will always try to start a counter-wagon if under threat. That should make me think that our investigations are wrong, but I don't think they are. I just think that scum either had nothing to fear, or wanted to be investigated. To compliment that argument, there have been a couple of weak attempts to start other wagons. One was FRAYDO's "hey, I agree with should investigate and nominate the same player but I'm actually going to nominate someone else lol" wagon that was aimed at getting OrangeP47 nominated, and then Chaos_Knights skirmish with VERTi60, which is a more classic attempt to avoid investigation. Neither one was attempted very hard. Given FRAYDO's obviously suspicious position, his choice of OrangeP47 stands out. FRAYDO has only otherwise been on the attack of positions, not supportive of arguments. Could be that scum wanted nomination first. Another OrangeP47 connection is his SAS case, which happens to fit the case to investigate Chaos_Knight. But, scum shouldn't want to investigate scum, so what's going on there? Well, given that I currently believe that one of our pieces of evidence is fake, it stands to reason that one of them might have been planted. The fake evidence might have been intentionally placed on Chaos_Knight with the intention of using OrangeP47's case to get him investigated, and have us place the fake evidence in the truth box. Given that I think that placing evidence in the box probably changes status of players, I think that could be a deliberate attempt to make someone else suspicious or hostile. Like VERTi60, for example, who also happens to claim to be Serbian. ##voteinvestigate OrangeP47

There's Retal saying what I'm thinking moments before I comment again.

The thief is going to wind up either VERTi60 or OrangeP47. At this moment, I think it's OrangeP47.

By the way, despite some of you thinking my avatar means anything (it was chosen before the game started), I'm actually Austrian, Task Force.

We don't know this yet, but I think it could be. I think that evidence will change the status of people when it is placed in the truth box. Else, town probably can't ever win by just investigations. And I suspect it is possible to win without lynching. This is kinda where I want to go, yes. As I talked about before, I put evidence in the truth box. This increased our evidence pile even though we didn't find new evidence. Based on my math, I think only 7 people need to be holding anything, and people who know they have evidence can probably pass it around. This is interesting Chaos. You can't seem to agree with yourself whether or not I'm suspicious. Your statement suggests that it's weird that I'm so clear even though so little is known about me, but then you also say that you know for a fact that I had a spy glass. If you do indeed know for a fact that I had a spy glass, you certainly know which side I belong to. There shouldn't be any doubt. This SAS theory doesn't work very well when I've already searched Mojoman and he claims to be Serbian. Actually, I think the opposite. I think FRAYDO very well could be the killer, because why the hell we would investigate him again, now? Right? Except with putting his evidence in the truth vault, I already made a potential reason to investigate him again. This NK just makes it that much more likely that he's marked hostile now.

I need to leave right now, and when i get back I have to go to sleep right away for a morning shift at work. I won't be able to say much more until after that.

I'm not innocent. I've been suspicious since the game started. I'm not against being investigated though, it won't hurt me at all, and it's possible I'm holding evidence I don't know about.

That's where I'm leaning, yes, given that I much more suspect FRAYDO over Chaos_Knight.

Ok, I just did a ton of number crunching, and here's what I think. Evidence collected is worth 10%. Right now I think that If it is true and placed in the truth box, it's worth 6 more. This could mean five pieces of true evidence and two fakes, adding to 100%. I placed both pieces of evidence in the truth box, and it increased by 6. If I'm right, that means one is true, and one isn't. This math works as it stands right now, but I arrived at it through pure guesswork. It very well could be wrong for reasons I don't know.

To be clear, I'm not totally sold on anybody. But for the purpose of narrowing down my targets, I extended my D1-D2 argument to today with the assumption it is correct. When I did that, I noticed a high correlation between people who seemed confused about WT and people I currently trust for other reasons. People I don't trust didn't really bring it up, and the one I least trust seemed to know how it worked. I can always backtrack later if something turns out wrong (or more like when, as there is always something wrong). I do have alternate theories, which for now I have to discount because they effectively mean that scum is leading me around.

Alright, so after a full game review, here are my findings. First, because the idea that FRAYDO seemed to think that players would know if their actions would increase tension or not, and my case based on that seems to be correct, I currently believe that these people, who debated how World Tension increases could happen, to more likely be town: Killing_You, Retaliation, TheIrishman, Jeod, and Mojoman. That leaves Chaos_Knight, VERTi60, and OrangeP47 who didn't really talk about it. FRAYDO, of course, is the one who slipped. His behavior, both before and after investigation, has been to effectively repeat the discussion and adds very little. When he does add something, it's always about the same people. Jeod, myself, or Killing_You. He doesn't get very involved other than that. He certainly isn't really trying to clear his name, despite the fact that there isn't anyone contesting that he is not scum. OrangeP47 didn't have evidence when I checked him, though I think it's possible he passed it first, or that he has some now. We can't know. I also think he could be the thief. I don't find it likely, but I'm not crossing the possibility off. Chaos_Knight and VERTi60 are fighting rather heavily with each other. One is probably scum, and picking a fight with the other, hoping to avoid investigation by redirecting it to the other. VERTi60 knew that a player is told about the pass action even when they don't have one. This makes me believe him when he says he doesn't have one. Chaos_Knight reported on Day 2 that things were "pretty boring on [his] side", this comes after he supposedly tracked me to OrangeP47. The word "boring" is something I'm kinda highlighting in my notes, because VERTi60 said he was "bored" and Chaos_Knight used that as a basis for an attack, despite him having said similar. Chaos_Knight never reacted regarding the claimed tracker role. He didn't find it interesting, he didn't question the claims, nothing. Didn't even bring up the subject. Even talked about newspaper headlines instead. Given how paranoid Chaos usually is, I feel like this is something he would have done if he were really a town tracker. I'd believe he is a scum tracker, but not town. He DID react to the revelation of a thief, however. But would he really find that very interesting, if he doesn't have items himself? On the plus side, if Chaos is telling the truth, he won't lose an item. At worst we'll lose a tracker when we already have one that seems fairly trust worthy. I might not be back on time to comment again, so placing votes now. ##voteinvestigate Chaos_Knight ##nominate Category5 I want to try placing that evidence in the truth box and see if the number moves. Not opposed to someone else doing this, especially if they are among these people: Killing_You, Retaliation, TheIrishman, Jeod, and Mojoman

I think that's a question that could be aimed directly back at you. You've not spent much time getting into the fray until the moment someone put strong suspicion on you. Then you made a claim that nobody can back up, and went on the attack soon after. Your method of defending yourself is attacking someone else. Where was the effort before this?

I had no notifications on N1. I did get notified about my item missing...after the notification that I was contacted.

@JeodThis is why I'm trusting Retaliation. He's thinking the same things I am, even if I'm not saying them. It's one thing to parrot me, but another to say things aloud that I'd been thinking but didn't say.

So you're claiming a tracker (which makes you the second tracker claim) and claimed to track someone who already stated publicly what he did, and then didn't do anything Night 2. This sounds flimsy, and puts you at odds with Jeod. I'm not totally satisfied with Jeod's decision to use weapons and the target he chose, so I'll need to do some thinking on this.

He cared enough to respond at being attacked, but hasn't said much otherwise.

So, Chaos, you have time to talk now. Perhaps you should do so?

Yep. Even the miss raised tension.

Chaos_Knight says: "WTF!" BOOOOOM! Jeod says: "MUWAHAHAHAHA"

No, I still don't want to kill anybody. But if we do, I want the target to be FRAYDO. I'm getting really irritated on how much of the discussion is flying over your head. Is this intentional?

Right, which is why I wouldn't be particularly bothered if I was investigated today, especially now that I've lost my item and can't do anything otherwise. That said, I started in the same boat as Retaliation. If investigated, I appear as Suspicious, and I lose my item. Given his idential situation and how he seems to be thinking the same way I am at the same time I am, I feel like he's town.