ChopBam

Can the Oracle result be fooled if FRAYDO is the miller?

I'm not opposed to making the exception here if Cat5 really wants out. It's just another likely blow to town though.

And even in this scenario, I'm still not 100% sure that FRAYDO is actually going to be revealed as mafia. It's not a good plan. We're better off having the Oracle accidentally killed than intentionally killed when we could have been lynching likely scum.

Best case scenario is that we kill the Oracle, reveal FRAYDO as a mafia power role, and then the doctor protects the NK target tonight. More likely though, the doctor isn't going to protect the NK target and we'll be killing two townies, making it a 4 v 3.

Well he kinda always does that, but this game he's just doing it a lot more.

I know that in my groupings I listed only two players for some of them. It can be spectacularly hard to find the third. Anyway I'm still looking for pairings, cause how else will we find the clues??

I know I keep hounding on this, but normally we operate with two mafia. We need to think in terms of there being 3 mafia players who can all cover for each other in a roundabout way. I have three main suspect groupings: 1) Off-the-deep-end Mojoman and the inactives. 2) The FRAYDO/Inferno group (they covered for each other on the last page). 3) iLikeToSnipe and ???. I've gone back and skimmed a bit of the thread. Mojo is probably the only player here who's crazy enough to stand out while being scum, so my read on him is not existent right now. However, he's pulled stunts like this in the past while scum and gotten away with it, which is a main reason I voted for him yesterday. Orange and Mojo were both on board with seeing FRAYDO as scum, and FRAYDO gets really defensive when called out. Shade is seemingly not opposed to voting FRAYDO. Here's the meta argument: FRAYDO is also offering way more effort to the thread than usual. On Inferno, he's offering relatively weak arguments, and keeps giving off his vibes that Cat5 and I are town (specifically me). He even says in his "cop report" that I'm town. He's quite confident that I'm town. In fact, he may even know for sure that I'm town. So yeah I'm leaning towards a FRAYDO and possibly Inferno team. ##vote FRAYDO Anybody else?

I do think this is a weak argument in favor of FRAYDO being town. I see scum doing this all the time to fit in as town. All they have to do is keep their scum partners out of the #1 "scum read" spot.

I'm referring to Category 5. I don't like his sacrificial plan, as it would really only harm us. 2 likely town deaths to get a "maybe" result on FRAYDO. Why go to that effort? We really can't afford it. A scum death today is preferable, but I really have no idea where to begin. Considering there are 3 scum this game and that the cop reports, town's only hope, can be fooled, I'm not very hopeful for us this round. We don't even know if the cop is still alive, and if he is, his report, which can be fooled anyway, is lost in the sea of other cop reports. It also appears many of us just don't have the time to dedicate to scumhunting.

Why would we want to lynch somebody we suspect is town? It's another free nightkill.

That distraction moment was the best!!

OrangeP47 is cleared as town. ?

As the Real™ cop, I'll let you know.

Try again.

D1 is town's chance to get any say in the first death, and the vote patterns can provide good information later. Mafia are the only players who know who all the town players are, so D1 can be a good reference point.

I haven't seen any extreme scum-tells or fantastic reasoning as to whom to lynch. At the same time, I didn't expect to start the train so easily. Mojoman seems to be playing this off as if it's not important to him. Remember, if he flips mafia, he could have still been the miller.

I understand the whole concept of the "math" behind no lynching on D1, but something else we must also determine is whether we can afford it. This game, we have 7 town and 3 mafia players. Usually it's 8 v 2 or something similar, but it's an open setup, so mafia can't quite as heavily rely on misinformation regarding what roles are at play here. Yet, there are other roles which can negate the cop role, leaving room for questions and misinformation even after lynches occur and more information is out. We can't rely on process of elimination alone. What I believe it'll come down to is claims and counterclaims, and determining which player has the more plausible story. Since we're not at that point on D1, it's hard to ordain a lynch target. I do think something is off about FRAYDO's arguments this game, but I think I'm in the same boat as he is. Typically when I imagine something is off about his arguments, he turns up town. Guess I'll take Mojoman's bait. ##vote Mojoman

I must disagree with this. Our vote results aren't based on randomly generated numbers. We all have various bits of information on which to operate, and the mafia have a load of information to provide based on how they vote. Voting patterns D1 are far from random.

That's muh boi.

Yeah I'm not really buying this plan. On the surface it sounds cool and different and all, but there are too many risks and the suspect pool would still be too large.

Hi hey hello.

Janitorial, you say? Sign me up.

I met Pointlessambler IRL back in 2011. He's from the Bay Area, like me.

I've forgotten how nice it is to be a vanilla role. No night actions to worry about, so I can sit back and work in real life. ?

Wow, it's been a year already? Feels like yesterday. Congrats!