iLikeToSnipe

If he's the spy we are never going to hear the end of it from Shade.

I'm here until hammer now. If Irish is really going to claim a power role he should just do it right now.

I have one and I'm only revealing it if it's to avoid a lynch. Revealing it will hurt town, keeping it a secret can hurt scum.

Are they though? What if they saw that there was no point saving him and started making cases on him? Anyone could be bussing him.

tbf, I just read through that exchange and it seems like she was trying to test Jeod.

That should put it halfway to an early hammer. I should be around often enough to unvote if needed.

I'd actually misread that as 1/1/1 of each role... was wondering why others were talking about a 4 man scum team. I may have missed it, but do you have any reads on Irish or Louis?

You know what Shade, let me explain it this way. Based on the information presented by the GM I know I'm right and this would be the optimal strategy to help Nod out. If GDI wants to follow it, then the game should be over very shortly with a Nod victory, making my point for me.

I would be so tempted to just shoot you if I still had a shot. If you're town this game, I don't even know what to do in future games. Just completely tune out all of your posts? Pretend you don't exist? Vote for you D1 no matter what? You're not even trying to discuss this.

By hunting scum and using day kills on reliably scummy reads before any scum could get their daykill off (which was one motivation for me shooting Mojo). The exact same thing we should be doing today. As I used math to show in the one post I made, your entire suggestion is flawed. You are more likely to hit town if you were to suspect a stuck shot of being from the spy. So, you still are making absolutely no sense to me.

Do you even read my posts? I explained why I didn't buy your post in the first place and why I haven't bought any of your reasoning since. I've at least directly addressed what you've posted. I don't see you doing the same, just making more "assumptions" and statements that appear to be an unexplained, sudden change of how you read people.

Or.... what if somebody who is town believes your logic is flawed? This isn't just a zero sum game Shade. You are not all knowing town and just because somebody disagrees with you doesn't make them scum. I actually took the time to write out a post explaining some of the math (right or wrong) behind why I thought differently than you. You haven't even tried to put to paper why you think your plan will work or is a good idea. It's just constantly talking about how the spy has a 100% stuck chance and none of the other variables and factors in play. THAT is why I see you as scummy. You just decide on something you think is correct, don't listen to anyone who thinks otherwise, and keep on trucking along without providing any actual reasoning.

Everyone is used to you being you. Doesn't mean I will ever let my guard down and trust you when you still push for stuff that doesn't help town. The whole angle on shots being stuck = being a spy is absolutely worthless without a lot more data. Even then, it still is worth less than a random lynch if EVERYONE had fired their shots. If everyone fires their shots, odds are a town member will be killed rather than a mafia member. Your entire line of reasoning here is much more likely to help mafia than town. You ignore anything that doesn't support it and keep on pushing for it. Why?

I havent' been able to do an in-depth analysis of everyone this game and I'm particularly busy today. So here's what I've got. Jeod: Seems to be making posts and reading when he can (and making jabs at Shade). I haven't paid enough attention to him to have any read at the moment. ChopBam: He's been making good posts and scum hunting like he's town. I'm getting a town read. FRAYDO: Very little content form him, especially for D2. Not getting a town read, but not getting a strong scum vibe either. Neutral/scum read. Cat5: He's had less activity and prodding other players than he usually does. Not seeing anything scummy about his posts, so neutral/town read from me. Voe: It has been a very long time since I've played with him and I'm try to rely less on meta than others do. He has contributed quality content to the game (ex. role chart anlaysis) and I haven't seen any obvious scum tells in his posts. Town read. Retal: He's making what mostly seem to be reactions, rather than doing scum hunting. The contributions he has made though don't seem scummy. Neutral read. Shade: I always scum read Shade with the way he plays. His argument over shooting people to check for the spy and then not being willing to do so himself strikes me as especially scummy. I'd be in support of a vote on him, but I believe there are other players who are more likely to be scum. Irish: I've already made my case, but I'll summarize it here. He's been taking potshots at other players and drastically changing his reads without any indication as to why. For example, first Jeod was a solid town read and then suddenly he's "suspecting Jeod less"? Where did that come from? Why? How? In what timespan did he believe Jeod was town, then believe he was scum, and then started suspecting him less? I get the feeling he has an agenda, which is a huge scum tell. Anon: Nowhere near enough activity to get a read. If we were in a position where we had to lynch and didn't have any strong candidates, I'd consider him just to remove him as an inactive variable. Louis: Seems to have a similar amount of content to when she was non-town (third party, mafia, etc). Also hasn't seemed to have been particularly helpful with her content. Scum read on her. I haven't had a chance to look through their interactions, but just going off of my D2 reads I'd have a scum team of Shade, Irish, and Louis. I'm most strongly suspicious of Irish right now, so I'm keeping my vote on him. Shade is always scummy to me, so it could very well be somebody else (i.e. FRAYDO).

Why do you think I feel threatened? I've specifically made it clear that my issue with you is the logic and reasoning you're giving, not explicitly with who you are "calling out". This is just misdirection from the original discussion. Let me get this straight. You thought Jeod was more likely to be town because he made a move that was scummy, but it was a move you wouldn't do as scum. Therefore he's town? How does that make any sense?

To be completely serious though... I didn't do the kill and I believe I can actually have an alibi for that if I need to. But there's no point in that right now.

@Louis

@TheIrishman What's suddenly changed for you? Did you kill Orange to try and frame multiple town members? D1 and N1 you believed I was town and never made any mention of Jeod after saying you thought he was town. Then suddenly D2 you're "suspecting Jeod less" and now I'm a suspect? I take one look at your posts for this game and every single one of your past five posts is a scum tell. ##vote TheIrishman

I was going to add that we've got up to two protective roles. One does prevent the target from doing anything at all, but it still gives them NK protection. So there is more BP going around than just the Dig In action.

The "threat" of a gun to scum depends on who has it. Even if somebody who's town is the gunman, that can still be a boon for them if it's somebody they believe they can manipulate. A power role is almost never something that can be manipulated to work out positively for scum. I'd say there are three categories of scum kills (assuming a competent scum team): Kill a confirmed or suspected power role to remove its utility from town Kill a player they know to be not-scum that has a reputation for quality scum hunting Make a kill that falls into a long-term scheme (this even includes picking a random player to cause confusion) Orange definitely falls into those first two, so I am not inclined to believe it's the third possibility. Maybe there's some grander scheme going on, but I just don't see it. As you yourself noted, "It would've been so much easier to kill someone else and then push Orange to be lynched to starting on Mojo". So you don't even think it's part of some scum gambit. You claim it's because "scum are dumb", but what would make you believe that? Even with what I've just typed, I can't say for certain why mafia killed Orange. But what's important is that I can see several good reasons why they'd kill him. Does that make it for sure the best move? Maybe not. Is there anything to indicate it's a dumb move? No. At best, this is a poorly founded theory from town that doesn't do anything to help. Because of the scum/suspect reads you just dropped into your post and haven't done anything to follow up on, that's not what I'm thinking it is.

There could be multiple cops.

I have no idea what you are even trying to state or imply. What do you mean "couldn't role claim"?

Here's why you're wrong (and I wish Orange was here to tell me if I'm doing this right). Everyone on the chart has a chance to get a stuck result. The spy has the highest at 100%, officer has 50%, and everyone else is 25%. So let's say somebody gets a stuck result. If they were a spy they obviously knew that would happen. If they were an officer it's just a coin toss. Everyone else is basically just rolling a 1d4 and hoping they don't get a 1. Instead of looking at it as player -> result -> role, let's just look at role -> result. If all the light infantry (assuming 5) were to shoot, the odds that none of them would get stuck is 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~23%. So, there's a slightly greater chance that one gets stuck than none. It's statistically likely that at least one of them would get a stuck result. Expanding on that, lets look at calculating the odds for each side. GDI: light infantry * officer * riot trooper * Umagon * medic -> 0.77 * 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = ~16%. A 16% chance that nobody in GDI ever gets a stuck result. We obviously know that one Nod member will get a stuck result. Calculating out the other two, it's about a 56% chance that neither of them get a stuck result. 100% chance that Nod gets a stuck result if they all shoot. 84% chance that at least one GDI gets a stuck result if they all shoot. What does that tell us? There's only a 16% chance that the person who fired and got a stuck result was Nod. If we were to assign everyone a number and draw it out of a hat to pick a lynch (i.e. a random lynch) we'd have a 3 in 11 chance -> ~27% chance of getting Nod. In other words, your logic has a worse chance at picking out somebody who's Nod than just lynching someone completely at random. Please stop.

Shade, can you tell me what exactly you would think of somebody shooting at a target and getting a result of stuck? Do you think they are for sure scum? Do you think they are more or less likely to be scum? What do you think I should think about you if you tried to shoot somebody and got a stuck result?