Category 5 Hurricane

You opened today by saying that you thought that OrangeP47 didn't have a power role. Now you suddenly have reservations that OrangeP47 was the cop afterall? No, I've got more reasons than that. First of all, there's the appearance of a link between you and Mojoman. You both have said things that are beneficial to each other, such as Mojoman calling you the Miller and ... Here, actually, I'm going to switch tactics. I'm very short on time this game and looking ahead I'm going to have even less over the next few days. I'm going to take this opportunity to use my role and exit the game. If you want to know FRAYDO's role, lynch me now. I'm the Oracle. I have reasonably high confidence that he will be town. He's a pivotal player either way as it'll either help or hinder iLTS's argument, and it's a safe time to do this right now, so let's just do it. ##vote Category5

##vote iLikeToSnipe

Which players and what reasons are those? Only 4 players have not followed the plan, and 3 of those have not specified why. TheIrishman has his own plan he wants to follow, and Shade is complaining about unspecified flaws. Mojoman hasn't even attempted to explain yet or even officially taken a position either way, he just hasn't participated. So who's reasoning are you following? Are you getting my plan and TheIrishman's plan crossed up? Because I don't see how everyone claiming a cop report has any negatives when the cop is the one who was already killed. I actually think there is a big positive there, because it will reduce the effectiveness of any fake guilty claim the mafia might try to come up with.

Having the cop claim doesn't necessarily help us get to victory. Because we don't know the role that was killed, even an uncontested cop claim could actually be a mafia player. My strategy is to ensure the cop's reports aren't lost to time if they get killed. Your strategy places heavy reliance on a cop that we don't know for sure is alive, and can't trust if one is claimed. You would be better off trying to actually play mafia then try to come up with mathematical solutions that involve coinflips as the basis of the strategy.

@Shade939, why did you push for a lynch D1? Also, why don't you try specifying the flaws you claim you see? You've complained multiple times but have never specified why you are against it. @iLikeToSnipe, you haven't voiced an opposition to my plan, but have also not contributed. Why? @Mojoman, you decided to make a joke about it but have also not voiced opposition or contributed. Why? @TheIrishman, you came up with a strategy to make the power roles claim and then altered the plan midstream for reasons that are unexplained to something else entirely. Why are you so focused on baiting the power roles into claiming?

Yeah, thanks, Sauce Boss. I was totally worried that Mafia killed one of it's own..... ......is what I'd like to say. However, my report is that...OrangeP47...is......town. Ahem. First of all, part of the reason why I proposed this plan was because I wanted to give the Mafia team a reason to holster the janitor shot. Typical Mafia play of this setup demands the janitor shot be used right away. This setup is actually designed to be started with a Night 0, not a Day 1, so the Janitor shot is supposed to be used before the game even starts. Then optimal Mafia play is considered to be that the janitor claim to be the cop Day 1 and force the cop to counter-claim. If they aren't met with one, then they know they killed the cop and can use the janitor's fake-claim to lead the entire game. If they get counter-claimed, usually the real cop gets lynched first and only ever makes one report. Minimizes the possible amount of damage that can be done to the Mafia team and maximizes the potential benefit. The fact that the janitor shot was used anyway suggests that a mafia veteran is in the scum team, or the janitor is someone who thinks they are likely to be lynched. It just so happens that iLTS and Mojoman are my two top suspects from D1 actions, so I like that the N1 results lead me back to the same two players. Optimal Town strategy is to get in front of the optimal Mafia strategy, with the real cop opening with a report before the janitor can. When the janitor counter-claims, now that person is the most likely lynch, and then forces the scum team to doc hunt because the cop will be alive, clear, and protected. The problem is that even talking about this means that both sides know the plan, and now you can't know which came first. And because the janitor shot was used, we don't even know if there is a doc that will save the cop from being killed. So even if we win the 50/50, we may still only get one report from the cop. So now it's less than 50/50. I don't like those odds.

Right, yes. Do try to make it actually look like you aren't making it up. That'd be great. You know, don't claim you got a guilty on someone and then not make a single case on that person during that day, for example that I definitely haven't seen happen before at another forum that might hold mafia games on a potentially regular basis with occasional rumored chumpionships.

Alright. So, here's the deal. I have a better gambit than TheIrishman. One thing we need to avoid this game is having our cop killed before he has given his reports. We don't have many days or nights in this setup, so we need cop reports starting right away to help us narrow the field. Obviously the trouble here is that it's risky having a cop claim, because it can draw a counter-claim, and then you can't know which claim is true and then you have to lynch one or the other to find out, and that doesn't often work out that well. There is also a potential trap involved in testing guilty reports because of the Miller. So the alternative plan is that EVERYONE CLAIMS TO BE THE COP. AND I MEAN EVERYONE. How this works is that from here on out, each player's opening post for the day should include a Cop report. Everyone who isn't the cop just makes one up. The real cop will be able to hide among the others and tell us the investigation results without directly exposing himself to counter-claim games. If at any point in the game the cop turns up dead, we will then have the entire investigation history of the cop. Now, one of the counter arguments to this strategy is that everyone claiming a report will help scum narrow down who the cop actually is, because they will know when people have wrong reports. However, I figure this will actually make the scum want to avoid killing the cop, because as soon as the cop is killed, the reports that have already been made instantly turn against them like a time bomb. The only way for them to avoid this problem is if they holster the janitor shot hoping that they figure out who the cop is before they use it, which is itself an advantage for us because they'll have to allow early kills to be revealed and will leave them unable to pretend to be the dead role. So yeah. All of you. First post of the Day. Investigation Report. Or you will feel the wrath of Nepgya!

Of course FRAYDO would be the only one to put in the effort and actually understand what was going on. He understands that shitposting is an art that can actually be meaningful if you look closely enough. I had some other posts I was going to respond to but eventually I had to stop and go to bed.

##vote NoLynch

Yeah, like I said, my records end with Dead Space Trilogy. Anything that was held after that, I don't have.

We had a big cast of characters back then. Over 17 games, 42 players, 22 people played or ran at least 5 of them, 15 of those played or ran at least half of them. Voe (16) iLikeToSnipe (13+3 GM) Chaos_Knight (15) Retaliation (14+1 GM) Nodlied (13) VERTi60 (11+5 GM) Allie29 (11+1 GM) Tzar469 (11) Kamuixmod (10) Catalyst (9) M1Garand8 (9) pzeper (9) triattack (9) Westy543 (9) Glaed (4+5 GM) BaneOfSorrows (7+1 GM) Category5 (7+1 GM)

That appears to be correct. Your records from Muffia through Dead Space Trilogy were Mufia: Lynch All Muffins (Mafia Win) Catalyst's Chronosphere (Mafia Loss) Hosted Team Mafia 2 "The Original" CYOR (Mafia Loss) Dead Space Mafia (Loss, don't know which alignment he was, winner was GeneralCamo by himself) Einstein's Revenge (Town Loss) I also remember that you lost as Mafia in Ghost Trick: Phantom Mafia, though that isn't in my records.

I know I chose not to record the RPG because it wasn't really a mafia game, but I think I have all the rest through the Dead Space Trilogy game. I know games were held after that, but other than my Ghost Trick game, I don't think I can recover the records of those games unless the other GMs remember what they were and who was in them.

I actually have a spreadsheet I maintained back then of player records and Inferno's name is on it. He played in three games, winning none. (Allie29, Chaos_Knight and Nodlied won the most games back then, for the record) Muffia: Lynch All Muffins (Town Loss) Red Alert: A Mafia Rising (Mafia Loss) Red Alert: A Mafia Beyond (Town Loss) All games hosted by Glaed. They were the first three games I have on record.

I do wonder if you guys hadn't been spoiled, would you really have been that certain. (and in turn this hard on Shade)

Right, that's true. Hard for mafia to fake claim when all roles are known in advance.

Yeah, I actually looked that up myself. It does seem to be balanced. I probably will read a bit of those.

30% Mafia, and three ways for Town to get fooled off of reports and one of the death flips can be deceptive on it's own. Yikes. It's going to be super hard to be detective when there are so many things that can be wrong. Still, I'm up for the challenge.

Because I needed to find examples that fit my case better! When I couldn't find a role at MafiaScum, I started looking for other places. Reading the dead doc, I killed Jeod because I thought he was the least likely to be protected by TheIrishman, and I felt I needed TheIrishman alive. I also hoped Sunflower would investigate him, but it was mostly the former.

Just because you are Irish doesn't mean you are safe from Hurricanes

I was considering making a TP claim and then posting this. Didn't get it done fast enough.

Just be glad that iLTS didn't decide that me matching your votes would count as an insta-win. I did some reading and vote stealers would normally do that. They are considered quite strong because of that. You getting the 50/50 was a gift.

Also, blame FRAYDO, because he failed the RNG check again.