Category 5 Hurricane

##vote OrangeP47 ##vote TheIrishman ##vote NoLynch ##vote Jeod ##unvote

##vote Jeod ##unvote

Vote pattern for Day 2 was packed with votes that either tied or broke the tie for the lead. Unfortunately the vote's changing end time adds some noise to the signal as some votes may or may not have ended this way. The most significant thing I'm seeing here is that between Mojoman and Shade, the two have made votes that helped each other or themselves 4 times over two days. I can't see any other set of players that have made similar moves. This looks fishy, and Shade's explanations for his vote shift at the end were baffling. Shade and Mojoman supporting each other in addition to just so happening to make these moves makes things look even worse. I also noticed OrangeP47 suddenly talking to almost everybody. Of course. I bring it up, and the behavior suddenly changes. This is why I can't do this all the time.

Nodlied didn't even try to save himself. Come on boys and girl (- scum team), we're going to have to put some effort into this, or we're going to get cleaned out!

Alright, so final thoughts on the day. TheIrishman: Because I work with the guy, I'm aware of what is probably the reason why he hasn't been participating. It's not a particularly good reason, and I didn't think it would get so far in the way that he'd make one comment over five days. I almost wonder if he's intentionally pulling a gambit where he tells us he's scum with his only post, and then waits to see if we do anything with it. I also kinda want him out, because inactives like this hurt no matter what the alignment is. OrangeP47: I actually like the case that Shade's pushing on OrangeP47. Though I have to say I also originally thought that TheIrishman had posted something about his absense, until I went back and found it was iLikeToSnipe who said it. So I find OrangeP47's excuse plausible. Not good enough of a case to take action on yet on it's own, though combined with the case on TheIrishman above, it might be true. Mojoman: Like Jeod, I'm being pinged by this guy a little bit. I first noticed him sheeping me after I barked at Shade. Something about that comment sounded insincere to me. Shade939: While I like Shade's case on OrangeP47, I'm not very happy with Shade himself. I don't like that vanilla claim, and I already said why. But I'm also concerned about it being a scum ploy to get others to reveal info before they should. Nothing that came out of that was going to be good for non-scum. Nodlied: And I find Nodlied doing a similar thing to be even more flagrant. I know AUM to do things that are just nonsensical, but I have a hard time believing that Nodlied thought it was a good idea to go fishing for reports. I'm aware that Nodlied has other things going on, but Nodlied is quite good at the scum tactic of keeping in the background so much that he doesn't attract attention, but still digging enough to help his cause. I'd take a vote for any of these, preferences in ascending order. I have to go to work now, though, so I'll just go with my lead case. ##vote Nodlied

Yes, but "tomorrow" for me meant after I woke up. Which is now.

Alright, I've completed my analysis. I've been quite busy, so I'm lucky this game has been so quiet. Because this game is lacking in content and a lot of you are unfamiliar with how to do detective work in a vanilla game, I'm going to give you guys a peek at my notes so that we all can benefit from them. I don't always do this because I don't want scum to learn to use my detective work against me, but I'll make the exception this time. I will try to continue to do so as long as I'm alive. First, I'm going to talk about the voting. On my chart, I've highlighted votes that changed the leader of the vote at the time the vote was made by placing them in a large black border on the left side. On the right, I border in red the players who are immediately put at higher risk as a result of the vote, and I put blue around the players who become less at risk as a result of that vote. I also color the full cell of any player who has been GM confirmed the color of their faction, and if a player who makes a vote currently has a vote placed on him, I bold and italicize that name on the right to identify where that player was at the time. (For the purposes of trying not to unfairly color the impression on myself, I'm not marking my own name as confirmed. I won't use my charts as evidence of my own alignment.) I have to say that my initial thoughts on the voting didn't quite match up after I sat down and made this chart. The votes that had me most suspicious originally were Mojoman's and Nodlied's votes on Jeod, both of which could have been aimed to help either FRAYDO or Shade939. The problem I have with that now is that I didn't realize at the time that those votes happened so early. It would be odd for scum to make a move to save someone so early on D1. Indeed, the votes that really had the highest impact on the final vote were mine and Sunflower's votes closer to the end of day, both of which directly helped Jeod avoid the lynch. Just before Sunflower made the vote that effectively saved Jeod, Jeod himself made a vote change that didn't impact himself at all, even though he could have easily gone for the self-preservation angle and reduced the risk on himself. That and Jeod's little WIFOM stunt makes me lean towards calling him not-scum. (This backwards naming really makes it hard to correctly label cases...I'm going to go with non-scum and scum, to refer to the typical meaning of town and mafia, respectively) Because I don't really suspect Jeod, I also don't suspect Sunflower for making the lynch save, though I think this could be worth keeping in mind. Next, one of my favorite tools that helps me spot who might be buddies, who isn't talking about each other, and which players are not both on the scum team. On this chart, I rate how favorably each couple of players are acting towards each other, comparing the name on the left with the name at the top, with the number in the box indicating the rating I'm giving the pair. So, on this chart, Shade939 and OrangeP47 have a score of -11, the max negative score I will assign. This indicates I find it effectively impossible that these two are both on the scum team. Jeod and Shade are close to this level of unfavorability. Jeod and I have what I consider to be the highest favorability as we both support each other a little bit (though not very high in general). I'm not going to go into detail on what I consider positive or negative, but in general players that disagree with each other will drop in rating, and players that agree will increase in rating. I'll leave a space empty if I haven't seen any interaction between the pair. A 0 is different than a blank space as that indicates I've seen both negative and positive interaction. Things of interest I'd note outside of what I just mentioned: Mojoman had the highest unfavorability with ChopBam, though that number was tiny and entirely based on ChopBam's vote. Few other people seemed to pay him much attention. Least likely pairings seem to be OrangeP47/Shade, Jeod/Shade and then Jeod/Mojoman. Everything else seems pretty wide open. OrangeP47 seems to be totally focused on Shade. Doesn't seem to really be making substantial discussions with anybody else. This is probably natural for two players who have said very little, but FRAYDO and TheIrishman have both only had two players talk to or talk about them in any substantial way. Shade has drawn a negative rating from every player except FRAYDO, though that's largely because I considered the "are you scum" tests as -1, and he did most of those. I've got a little bit more that isn't really covered by these charts, but it's now past when I should be sleeping, so I'll just drop this book now and let you guys chew on this, and I'll add more tomorrow.

Well, damn, it probably isn't him then.

Speaking of not being very sharp, what the fuck are you doing? I know you aren't so stupid to fish for reports in a vanilla game.

I saw it. I was saying to myself "He better not be the doc, cause I'm going to be angry when he dies N1" One of the meta tricks to vanilla games is that when people have certain power roles, they might tend to bring up that role in conversation because they know it exists. So a smart scum would be looking for such things. Jeod mentioned doc twice, so I was thinking it was likely he was the doc. Apparently the scum team this game isn't that sharp.

Don't have to wait for him. I just thought it was pretty funny, and it wound up being a talking point during Voe's game.

@ChopBam or anyone oldbie enough to remember, where was PointlessAmbler from? I've been thinking for a while that SirLagsALot over at MU is PointlessAmbler.

One thing you need to do is continue the tradition of the backup writing the champion's introduction.

Alright, Alternate Universe Man. In a vanilla game like this, there are probably few people that hold a power role, and the scum team will be looking to find the people who have them. Narrowing down the list of people who might have a role is not something you should be doing. People with vanilla roles should actually be trying to protect the people who do have roles by trying to draw kills to themselves, which may be what ChopBam just did. (If that was the intent, I tip the hat to you man. If not, well, you may have drawn the kill away from a power role, so you should feel better about that.) Now, you could claim that you're playing some sort of WIFOM game with that claim, and I would understand that since I'm doing that myself with my avatar. However, given how the last person who claimed vanilla was immediately killed, it makes little sense for a person who has a power role to claim he's vanilla. It might be the case that the scum team decided that ChopBam made that claim to try to keep them from killing him, so they did the opposite. If the scum team has a tendency to kill people who claimed to be vanilla, then the only people who are safe to claim vanilla, are people with vanilla roles. I suppose that could still be an effective WIFOM game, where the move is considered so stupid that nobody would believe a power role would do that, and therefore it actually works. I can only hope you're playing on that level.

I really wish I was here for the end of day, as the voting really looked interesting to me. Some of the votes looked like they might have been an attempt to save someone. I'll be doing some analysis on the voting to see if I can get any leads on that.

What I wish they'd actually do is allow each community to help their representative in like a group chat thing, so it's more like community vs. community, rather than just selected people from each community, some of which probably belong to several and might actually have MU as their main hangout.

And so it is. Get yourself signed up.

I waited as long as I can before I have to leave. I think I have to go with nolynch here. I really wanted to make some ties to see how the votes shift around, but I won't be around to watch. ##vote nolynch

When do you think is a good time, then?

As much as Jeod seems to not like this, this has to be brought up once again. With a 10 player game and assuming a 2-man town team, a nolynch should be considered at some point during this game. While this game probably isn't going to be role heavy, this won't be as helpful as it has been, but it's still better to end at LYLO than MYLO. Now, the calculus does change a bit from our previous games because we could wait until MYLO to do the nolynch instead of doing it right away, and get LYLO. Complicating things a bit, I have to wonder if 2 will really be the right number. VERTi60 tends to go for higher scum numbers, but I don't know about iLTS. Well, I suppose technically his mafia numbers are sky high.

Well, if I went with just the people who actually did ##UnitReady then I would have only had myself and Jeod. I decided to guess on the rest, and I guessed you wouldn't play.

I thought I could add a poll to the OP, but I can't, soooo. I don't really want to make another thread for this, so let's try something else. http://www.strawpoll.me/15580166/r Will check the poll after the D1 hammer in the ongoing game. Winner picks his backup.