Games [GAME OVER] Cop Mafia II

[OrangeP47]

Voe dying was bad for mafia, which is why it's a dumb mafia kill and I wouldn't do it. I did lay out reasons why KY might do it, or you might do it if you're trying to pull some galaxy brain play, but honestly I can't tell if you're being smart or just really really dumb.

[OrangeP47]

15 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

"The implication being if you're scum you're trying to get us to no lynch because it's advantageous to you." Let me remind you all, if I am mafia, then Voe has to be the insane cop and got an N0 investigation on me. In what world would it be advantageous to me to no lynch as mafia, let alone a no lynch that spares the player who would certainly out me as mafia? I mean, let's walk through this logically. Once all the claims were made, there were two mafia results and three town. If I were mafia I would have to have known that Voe were the insane cop in that situation and that he would out me the next day.

Now honestly, I'll admit, at the time, in previous day's arguments, I may not have been fully correct, but you're doing an excellent job casing yourself as to why you might have killed Voe last night. Keeping in mind that from a mafia!Orange perspective the reasoning to NK Voe doesn't exist because I wouldn't be outed, the logic to kill Voe coming from me ONLY works town sides, unless you're going to make some kind of claim that I'm framing you.

[Killing_You]

I have to bed after posting this, so I won't see the response until tomorrow, but I just have one question.

43 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Voe dying was bad for mafia, which is why it's a dumb mafia kill and I wouldn't do it. I did lay out reasons why KY might do it, or you might do it if you're trying to pull some galaxy brain play, but honestly I can't tell if you're being smart or just really really dumb.

Please elaborate. How was Voe dying bad for Mafia?

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

I have to bed after posting this, so I won't see the response until tomorrow, but I just have one question.

Please elaborate. How was Voe dying bad for Mafia?

Because it resolved the cop cluster. The exact reason I was pushing for Voe to be the D1 lynch is exactly why mafia would NOT want to make him the NK, and which is why I was actually pretty surprised he was. You'd have to have extraordinary circumstances to want Voe dead as mafia, and the only two people who do are you and ILTS. I don't.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said:

Because it resolved the cop cluster. The exact reason I was pushing for Voe to be the D1 lynch is exactly why mafia would NOT want to make him the NK, and which is why I was actually pretty surprised he was. You'd have to have extraordinary circumstances to want Voe dead as mafia, and the only two people who do are you and ILTS. I don't.

To recap: Those extraordinary circumstances:  ILTS - being outed if he's mafia.  You - easier to fake a read on him because checking him was the "logical" thing to do.

[OrangeP47]

Like seriously, D1, if I was mafia, Voe was the one person I would NOT want to die. That's why I was pushing for him to die, because it helped town. FFS ILTS your logic is literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard. I'm almost 100% convinced it's you now simply because I can't believe a town would fail that hard.

[OrangeP47]

I was a bit distracted earlier, so here's some further analysis, because it'll probably come up.

1) Even though my N0 cop report was involved with Voe, that's different than the extenuating circumstance I mentioned for KY because it had already come and gone, and didn't play into any possible factors with what to do a N1. At this stage, without having been copped backed, scum!Orange would be more concerned with keeping options open as to what cop to pretend to be. Indeed, if anything, that should give scum!Orange even more reason to avoid killing Voe N1 as it immediately locks in a few cop types for an alibi (part of the reason scum wouldn't want to eliminate a convergence unless under specific circumstances)

2) As everyone's N0 was picked for them, except scum having to pick their own fake claim, why the hell would I willingly as scum get involved in the Voe convergence. A smart scum move would have been to pick someone not involved. Now, ILTS was involved with Voe too (in a different way), but he went first, and had no way of knowing Voe would be a convergence, or that Voe would have legitimately copped him.

[ChopBam]

5 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

If I were mafia I would have to have known that Voe were the insane cop in that situation and that he would out me the next day.

This isn't actually true. From what we know of N0, Voe could have been the naive cop and myself been insane.

5 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

But, only one player put forth effort into getting Voe lynched.

This also isn't true. I supported the Voe lynch, as did KY briefly as well.

5 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Now, I know Orange is going to pull out a last ditch effort and make a case against me. So I'll let Orange do the talking for me.

5 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

There's motive, there's action, and I don't think there's any reasonable doubt. At this point, I am absolutely confident that the mafia player is Orange so I see no point in delaying this.

Making statements like this and jumping to action so fast looks to me like panic. Why not follow the original plan where we maximize our days to gather info? Are you afraid of something?

[iLikeToSnipe]

4 hours ago, ChopBam said:

This isn't actually true. From what we know of N0, Voe could have been the naive cop and myself been insane.

Actually, I went back to D1 and thought through the start of the day as if I were mafia. By the time I got to all the cop reports, I realized that there were only two mafia reports of which I was one of. At minimum, there must be one mafia result because of the paranoid cop. If I were mafia and made a fake mafia cop claim, that would make you the paranoid cop by process of elimination. So one of the town results (i.e. the one landing on mafia) would be the insane cop. There's no way I wouldn't have picked up on this scenario if I were mafia. I would have wanted Voe lynched and I would have used my knowledge of you being the paranoid cop to my advantage.

 

4 hours ago, ChopBam said:

This also isn't true. I supported the Voe lynch, as did KY briefly as well.

You and KY voted for Voe, that's true. But let me clarify what I mean. I made my post arguing for a nolynch. You and KY switched to a nolynch with no issues, no opposition. Orange fought against a nolynch and used very poor reasoning.

 

4 hours ago, ChopBam said:

Making statements like this and jumping to action so fast looks to me like panic. Why not follow the original plan where we maximize our days to gather info? Are you afraid of something?

Or I'm just really good at being able to take a step back and think like mafia/non-town. You expect yourself to be the night kill because you are confirmed town. In a multi-scum game that can go on for several more days, maybe. But this isn't that kind of game. Ask yourself this, if D3 starts and it's just you, Orange, and KY who do you vote for? You aren't going to get any new information from your cop report. You can't trust any report from Orange or KY. In other words, you are back to the exact same point we're at right now. Having to rely not on cop reports, but on post analysis.

I want town to win this game, I know that either Orange or KY are scum, I know that if I live through the night I will confirm who it is, so I know that I'm not going to live through the night. Because of that we have to scum hunt "the old fashioned way", and I'm the only one who seems aware of that. The charts and logic have really helped and gotten us to this point, but they aren't going to win us the game now. Nobody else on my team seems to realize the predicament we're in right now. That's why I'm jumping to action and that's why I actually have some worry as town.

[iLikeToSnipe]

7 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

I was a bit distracted earlier, so here's some further analysis, because it'll probably come up.

1) Even though my N0 cop report was involved with Voe, that's different than the extenuating circumstance I mentioned for KY because it had already come and gone, and didn't play into any possible factors with what to do a N1. At this stage, without having been copped backed, scum!Orange would be more concerned with keeping options open as to what cop to pretend to be. Indeed, if anything, that should give scum!Orange even more reason to avoid killing Voe N1 as it immediately locks in a few cop types for an alibi (part of the reason scum wouldn't want to eliminate a convergence unless under specific circumstances)

This is a red herring and false. "scum!Orange would be more concerned with keeping options open as to what cop to pretend to be" Really? Do you know how you get yourself options to fake a cop in this game as mafia? You kill a cop and try to take over their sanity. Voe could have been the sane or naive cop, that's half of the sanities in this game. With your knowledge of who's town you'd be able to figure out at least who falls into the sane/naive cop category and work from there. Don't act like killing Voe wouldn't help you at all, that's just not true at any level.

1. Eliminates town and forces D2 into LYLO (massive advantage for mafia)
2. Gives you a relatively safe way to kill a town player D1 (other town players were in favor of it, you just had to kick it off)
3. Eliminates a cop with an ambiguous sanity and allows you to claim one of them

 

7 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

2) As everyone's N0 was picked for them, except scum having to pick their own fake claim, why the hell would I willingly as scum get involved in the Voe convergence. A smart scum move would have been to pick someone not involved. Now, ILTS was involved with Voe too (in a different way), but he went first, and had no way of knowing Voe would be a convergence, or that Voe would have legitimately copped him.

Actually, I only made a soft-claim at first; admittedly I look back on it and it was a pretty bad attempt at any kind of soft-claim. Your report claim was before I outright said mine.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Orange's reaction to my post has further cemented my scum read of him. His posts about the Voe kill manage to claim at the same time that it's both the worst kill for mafia to possibly make (you'd have to be stupid to want to kill Voe) while also giving reasons for other players to make the kill and be mafia. On top of that, there's a small dash of OMGUS. Just like his attempt to keep a Voe lynch on the rails D1 I still don't see much substance in his posts.

[OrangeP47]

2 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

This is a red herring and false. "scum!Orange would be more concerned with keeping options open as to what cop to pretend to be" Really? Do you know how you get yourself options to fake a cop in this game as mafia? You kill a cop and try to take over their sanity. Voe could have been the sane or naive cop, that's half of the sanities in this game. With your knowledge of who's town you'd be able to figure out at least who falls into the sane/naive cop category and work from there. Don't act like killing Voe wouldn't help you at all, that's just not true at any level.

1. Eliminates town and forces D2 into LYLO (massive advantage for mafia)
2. Gives you a relatively safe way to kill a town player D1 (other town players were in favor of it, you just had to kick it off)
3. Eliminates a cop with an ambiguous sanity and allows you to claim one of them

 

Actually, I only made a soft-claim at first; admittedly I look back on it and it was a pretty bad attempt at any kind of soft-claim. Your report claim was before I outright said mine.

Your arguments as to why mafia would want to eliminate Voe pretty much work on eliminating any town and ignore the reasons to NOT kill him. It's a poor argument. Like seriously, you're acting like I suggested mafia would rather kill no one than kill Voe, which is just blatant intellectual dishonesty. 

1. This only applies if the alternative is NKing no one, which is just dumb, don't pretend like that's a universe I was suggesting as an alternative to what scum would do.

2. What town thinks about the person being killed has no bearing on the NK. Town isn't going to grant mafia a reprieve because they killed the least favorite townie. Nonsense argument. Don't bring lynching Voe into this because I still contend that was *good* for town, and clearly others did agree.

3. Applies to literally everyone in the game at that point.

Absolute trash arguments.

 

[Jeod]

[OrangeP47]

3 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Your arguments as to why mafia would want to eliminate Voe pretty much work on eliminating any town and ignore the reasons to NOT kill him. It's a poor argument. Like seriously, you're acting like I suggested mafia would rather kill no one than kill Voe, which is just blatant intellectual dishonesty. 

1. This only applies if the alternative is NKing no one, which is just dumb, don't pretend like that's a universe I was suggesting as an alternative to what scum would do.

2. What town thinks about the person being killed has no bearing on the NK. Town isn't going to grant mafia a reprieve because they killed the least favorite townie. Nonsense argument. Don't bring lynching Voe into this because I still contend that was *good* for town, and clearly others did agree.

3. Applies to literally everyone in the game at that point.

Absolute trash arguments.

 

Honestly, I'll read your post again more charitably and assume you *were* trying to make a point about the lynch and not the NK, and I'll say once no lynching two days in a row was on the table I was more or less fine with the plan. It wasn't spelled out clearly at first.

[Killing_You]

14 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

Because it resolved the cop cluster. The exact reason I was pushing for Voe to be the D1 lynch is exactly why mafia would NOT want to make him the NK, and which is why I was actually pretty surprised he was. You'd have to have extraordinary circumstances to want Voe dead as mafia, and the only two people who do are you and ILTS. I don't.

I'm still not sold on how. What information did we gain from his death that we didn't from just assuming he was Town? What specific conflicts were resolved? You haven't given direct answers, just vague explanations and deflections.

Also, why would scum!KY kill Voe N1 instead of Chop, who got a N0 Mafia report on me? For all we knew at the time, he could've been sane.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

I'm still not sold on how. What information did we gain from his death that we didn't from just assuming he was Town? What specific conflicts were resolved? You haven't given direct answers, just vague explanations and deflections.

Also, why would scum!KY kill Voe N1 instead of Chop, who got a N0 Mafia report on me? For all we knew at the time, he could've been sane.

Why would you just assume Voe is town at that stage? That's not something you should be doing.... 

The implication is, D1, that Voe could have been mafia at that stage, so that's why he needs resolved, from a town perspective. From a N1/D2 perspective, given than there were conflicting reports on Voe, he was a natural target for more people to cop, only increasing the number of people that have a cop report on him. When he dies, all the people that cop him know if their check on him was correct or not. If we take everyone as face value of being a cop, we know my town check was correct, we know ILTS' check was incorrect, and we know your check was correct.  That's A LOT of information for our sodoku.  If, by comparison, I died, we'd only learn that Chop's check was incorrect, much less information, and therefore a more ideal kill for mafia to make.  These calculuses change a bit for the lynch decision because the N1 checks aren't factored in, obviously, but same principle.

As for your last statement, that's a good point. I'm leaning towards ILTS being the scum now, as his case on himself is much stronger than the case on you, which originated from when we were exclusing ILTS from scum consideration.

[Jeod]

Day ends in 5 hours.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Jeod said:

Day ends in 5 hours.

I'll likely be here for hammer today, but won't be for hammer tomorrow or hammer Saturday on the very slight chance we extend the next day for some inane reason.

[Jeod]

No more extensions will be granted for today.

[Killing_You]

3 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Why would you just assume Voe is town at that stage? That's not something you should be doing.... 

The implication is, D1, that Voe could have been mafia at that stage, so that's why he needs resolved, from a town perspective. From a N1/D2 perspective, given than there were conflicting reports on Voe, he was a natural target for more people to cop, only increasing the number of people that have a cop report on him. When he dies, all the people that cop him know if their check on him was correct or not. If we take everyone as face value of being a cop, we know my town check was correct, we know ILTS' check was incorrect, and we know your check was correct.  That's A LOT of information for our sodoku.  If, by comparison, I died, we'd only learn that Chop's check was incorrect, much less information, and therefore a more ideal kill for mafia to make.  These calculuses change a bit for the lynch decision because the N1 checks aren't factored in, obviously, but same principle.

Thing is, if Voe was Mafia, lynching him would've been a D1 win, so we had to focus our thinking on what would happen if he flipped Town. Answer: No new information. You still would have been either Sane or Naive, and iLikeToSnipe would've still been either Insane or Paranoid. We didn't need a flip, we needed more reports.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Jeod said:

No more extensions will be granted for today.

Oh yeah, I guess Friday is *daystart*. My bad. Then I won't be here for hammer Saturday probably, assuming nothing crazy happens and scum doesn't decide to off me

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

Thing is, if Voe was Mafia, lynching him would've been a D1 win, so we had to focus our thinking on what would happen if he flipped Town. Answer: No new information. You still would have been either Sane or Naive, and iLikeToSnipe would've still been either Insane or Paranoid. We didn't need a flip, we needed more reports.

We'd get more reports no matter what because the game would continue. Reread my original arguments. It's about CONTROL. Reports and flips happen naturally as the game progress. It's about town choosing who flips, not scum.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

We'd get more reports no matter what because the game would continue. Reread my original arguments. It's about CONTROL. Reports and flips happen naturally as the game progress. It's about town choosing who flips, not scum.

That's your opinion, but I think this game has demonstrated that it's wrong. For town the keys are information and time. For mafia the key is control. With enough information and time, town narrows down the suspect list without needing to make any lynches themselves. The mafia player has to do their best to control that information and throw in fake reports.

Imagine if we had lynched Voe and then one of us four was dead? We wouldn't have any of the charts that ChopBam was able to put together. I don't know how you can't see it, but it really isn't about Voe that much. The whole point is that lynching anybody D1 is a 100% scum move no matter the context. In no way outside of some insane RNG that I don't even know is possible (i.e. multiple N0 reports hitting scum and confirming them) does it ever make sense for town to lynch D1.

Yes, there were some points to lynch Voe that weren't bad. That doesn't mean it wasn't an awful idea anyways. I've never played this game mode before, I admittedly wasn't sure how best to play it in the beginning, but I knew immediately that a D1 lynch like that was not going to help.

Throughout all of this it's taken a lot of effort to just get you to begrudgingly admit that maybe a D1 lynch wasn't a good idea. You want to talk about how you're shocked I don't see things? I'm shocked that you could be town and not see the D1 lynch as bad.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

That's your opinion, but I think this game has demonstrated that it's wrong. For town the keys are information and time. For mafia the key is control. With enough information and time, town narrows down the suspect list without needing to make any lynches themselves. The mafia player has to do their best to control that information and throw in fake reports.

Imagine if we had lynched Voe and then one of us four was dead? We wouldn't have any of the charts that ChopBam was able to put together. I don't know how you can't see it, but it really isn't about Voe that much. The whole point is that lynching anybody D1 is a 100% scum move no matter the context. In no way outside of some insane RNG that I don't even know is possible (i.e. multiple N0 reports hitting scum and confirming them) does it ever make sense for town to lynch D1.

Yes, there were some points to lynch Voe that weren't bad. That doesn't mean it wasn't an awful idea anyways. I've never played this game mode before, I admittedly wasn't sure how best to play it in the beginning, but I knew immediately that a D1 lynch like that was not going to help.

Throughout all of this it's taken a lot of effort to just get you to begrudgingly admit that maybe a D1 lynch wasn't a good idea. You want to talk about how you're shocked I don't see things? I'm shocked that you could be town and not see the D1 lynch as bad.

I think you're reading of my posts after it was clarified you wanted to double no lynch is very uncharitable. I actually was fine with it pretty quickly after that. As for the rest of this, I've basically been asked to defend my original reasoning, and I have, I don't know what else you want, I won't apologize for it.

[iLikeToSnipe]

14 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I think you're reading of my posts after it was clarified you wanted to double no lynch is very uncharitable. I actually was fine with it pretty quickly after that. As for the rest of this, I've basically been asked to defend my original reasoning, and I have, I don't know what else you want, I won't apologize for it.

I think I was pretty charitable and forgiving D1. It's just been after your reactions today and further actions.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

I think I was pretty charitable and forgiving D1. It's just been after your reactions today and further actions.

That's just like, your opinion man.

[Jeod]

Must be lunch break.

[Killing_You]

Here's where I stand: Right now, I think Orange is scum.  I don't like his line of reasoning, as it seems oriented around making his decisions seem right rather than helping town. iLTS, on the other hand, has been very helpful, and his logic seems very pro-Town.

That being said, I am sticking to the plan. Tomorrow will be the final debate. I'm very interested in the results.

[OrangeP47]

2 minutes ago, Killing_You said:

Here's where I stand: Right now, I think Orange is scum.  I don't like his line of reasoning, as it seems oriented around making his decisions seem right rather than helping town. iLTS, on the other hand, has been very helpful, and his logic seems very pro-Town.

That being said, I am sticking to the plan. Tomorrow will be the final debate. I'm very interested in the results.

I mean, as another bit of evidence, ILTS is the one that wants to jump the shark now, after trying to paint himself as the one being the creator of no lynch.

[iLikeToSnipe]

52 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I mean, as another bit of evidence, ILTS is the one that wants to jump the shark now, after trying to paint himself as the one being the creator of no lynch.

The whole reasoning behind a no lynch was to gather more information to find mafia. I've already explained why I don't believe the remaining town on D3 will get any useful information.

With what I've found in your posts and the way you reacted to my posts, I have no doubt that you're mafia. So by my own logic, why wait?