Category 5 Hurricane

Yes. Usually the setups are known in advance, or at least a matrix of possible setups. Completely closed setups are very rare, and I feel like CYOR is a foreign concept to them.

I mean, the guys at Mafia Universe do it so much that they decide lynches by math, and doing anything other than the "mathematically optimal" option is shunned.

That was a great game to watch.

I'm going to be too busy during this time frame. Actually, I'm probably out for at least the next two months.

I can't believe that got put together in 48 hours. That just looks like so much work! Quite impressive.

That game looks like it has a long way to go. They first have to make the game totally in one art style complete with a protagonist, and then completely throw it all in the garbage and do it all again in a different style and use the first protagonist as a tutorial character.

SW-4482-0912-8416

My claimed role was actually my town role suggestion, so it certainly could have happened.

Louis scum MVP. Really, the only reason Orange and I had somewhat believable cover stories was because she accidentally confirmed our claims. And she killed the same number of people.

Interesting maneuver. I'll call that bluff. ##vote Killing_You

I was going to go on a point by point rebuttal on KYs case on me and his attempt to link me to OrangeP47, but I got tired of writing the same response to every issue. You're taking all of my posts out of context and inserting the context you need to make it fit. How can my vote on OrangeP47 have no reasoning behind it? You quoted my post with my reasoning in it. I did not like OrangeP47's response to iLTS's little gambit and I still don't. And shortly after making that vote, I left, and didn't return until well after hammer. I placed my vote, at a time when I was the lead for the lynch, on my supposed team mate, which put him one vote away from being at risk himself, and left. This isn't placing a vote on the guy and then unvoting right away, like you did. I was committed to that vote, and I expected it to win. The guy had already led the vote earlier in the day, and I fully expected it to go back in that direction as a result of my claim. Instead you and Orange made sure someone else was lynched. Would you like to claim that you were in on it with me? My vote on Louis is also being taken out of context. That was a "Oh, you think Louis and I are scum buddies huh, well here is what I say to that" vote. I said as much in the post where I voted. I was considering a case on Jeod later, but again by the time I got back, Louis had both killed Jeod and dug her own grave at the same time. There wasn't much point anymore, was there?

I can see why KY would try to downplay the idea of doing voting analysis, because I don't think he's going to like what I have found. Day 2 Jeod - Louis Louis 1 Louis - Cat5 Louis 1 - Cat5 1 iLTS - OP47 Louis 1 - Cat5 1 - OP47 1 Jeod - OP47 OP47 2 - Cat5 1 Chop - OP47 OP47 3 - Cat5 1 KY - OP47 OP47 4 - Cat5 1 Chop - Unvote OP47 3 - Cat5 1 KY - Unvote OP47 2 - Cat5 1 Louis - Unvote OP47 2 Jeod - Unvote OP47 1 iLTS - NL NL 1 KY - Cat5 NL 1 - Cat5 1 Flower - Nod NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Nod 1 Flower - Jeod NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1 Jeod - Cat5 Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 Cat5 - OP47 Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1 Jeod - Unvote Cat5 1 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1 KY - Unvote NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1 Chop - OP47 OP47 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 KY - NL OP47 2 - NL 2 - Jeod 1 OP47 - NL NL 3 - OP47 2 - Jeod 1 Chop - NL NL 4 - OP47 1 - Jeod 1 Flower - NL NL 5 - OP47 1 KY - Louis NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1 Jeod - iLTS NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1 - iLTS 1 FRAYDO - iLTS NL 4 - iLTS 2 - OP47 1 - Louis 1 KY - iLTS NL 4 - iLTS 3 - OP47 1 OP47 - iLTS iLTS 4 - NL 3 - OP47 1 Day 3 Jeod - Cat5 Cat5 1 KY - Louis Cat5 1 - Louis 1 Louis - Jeod Cat5 1 - Louis 1 - Jeod 1 KY - Cat5 Cat5 2 - Jeod 1 Cat5 - Louis Cat5 2 - Jeod 1 - Louis 1 Flower - Louis Cat5 2 - Louis 2 - Jeod 1 KY - Unvote Louis 2 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1 Chop - Louis Louis 3 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1 Jeod - Louis Louis 4 - Jeod 1 OP47 - Cat5 Louis 4 - Jeod 1 - Cat5 1 Nod - Cat5 Louis 4 - Cat5 2 - Jeod 1 Flower - Cat5 Louis 3 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1 KY - Louis Louis 4 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1 Louis - STAB Louis 3 - Cat5 3 OP47 - Louis Louis 4 - Cat5 2 Nod - Louis Louis 5 - Cat5 1 Flower - Louis Louis 6 The formatting isn't going to come out very pretty on this, but the data is all there. In red I've marked all the votes that directly changed the leader of the lynch. In yellow are the votes that created ties for the lynch. Most of the early day ones don't matter. It's the end of day ones that are best looked at. KY has had his hands in changing the lead of the vote 7 times. For which players does he lower the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis, Me (4x), NoLynch, OrangeP47. For which players does he raise the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis (3x), Me (2x), NoLynch (2x), OrangeP47. Kinda interesting that the two lists match. KY seems to have been playing the vote game pretty heavily. Of course, at the end of the day his votes were iLTS and Louis. But let's take a more detailed look at KYs specific patterns. Day 2 KY starts out with joining the OP47 train (who totally should have been lynched that day) only to drop off it at the first sign of it cooling off. It was a superfluous vote that didn't mean anything. He then starts a train on me when NoLynch was starting to gain traction, and is only forced off that vote when I come out as a Hider. Right after he unvotes, ChopBam places a vote on Orange that places him in the lead. KY moves to vote for NoLynch and Orange follows with his own matching vote. KY atttempts to drop off the train by making a meaningless vote for Louis after NoLynch already had a significant lead. But as soon as another realistic lynch comes into play, KY jumps on board and OrangeP47 follows again. Day 3 involves KY's argument that I am on a team with OrangeP47. KY called Orange's vote on me meaningless, but his train on me resulted in a tie on me, and he only unvoted after Louis stabbed Jeod. It would seem the scum team didn't care so much which of myself and Louis got lynched, which certainly makes sense given that it appears that no mafia player was ever on the board that day and Louis's claimed ability and mine were both problems for Mafia.

I had a surprise 12 hour shift yesterday and went to sleep right after. So sorry I'm not here to report at the obligated time. I decided not to target anyone during N3, so as to prevent the possibility that two people die on the same night. I was hoping that ChopBam would find me and confirm that as well, but it seems all he did was pass the amulet to me again.

That's a strong case. I haven't had a whole lot of spare time this week, but especially today I've been feeling like we must be missing something. I thought I was starting to understand this game when it was looking like Louis was Mafia, but now that's out the window. We're to the point now that something we think has been happening must be wrong. I know I said this already and I know I should have done this myself by now (I'd do it right now, but I'm already 2 hours late to sleep while I try to reread stuff), but I think we need to go back and review the vote trains so far, especially Day 2. I'll do it myself if I survive the night. For anyone else who wants to do the work in the meantime, look at the votes in order and look at who benefited from votes that were made to try to find who might be helping someone else. Also look to see who puts someone else more at risk. Those people are less likely to be teammates. In a game this small, the latter example should almost never happen, especially late in the vote. In regards to Nodlied/KY specifically, I have a couple points to add as I was coming to a similar conclusion but from a different angle. It is indeed strange that he roleblocked ChopBam. While we've been using that fact to rule him out as the killer, I wonder about that. On N1 there wasn't a roleblock, so Nodlied could have done something else. We only have Nodlied's word that multiple people visiting him means that his roleblock is stopped and he gimmicks someone in return. That could just be a passive that would happen anyway, meanwhile his actual action was to kill FRAYDO. KY driving him to Mojoman, is that really what happened, or is that a cover story? With your example, FRAYDO, that would make two separate ways for these two to be covering for each other.

So do you admit to being mafia now?

Furthermore, while I have been told that scum might be able to target me in that way, it doesn't say anything about other alignments doing the same. I may have been making in incorrect assumption that my targets can still target me, it may just be if my target is scum.

I already responded to that idea.

I've got a feeling Louis is going to turn up Mafia, not TP. I don't think it makes sense to have so many Neutrals/TPs going around. And she attacked Jeod, who nobody was really considering as a suspect.

I've been told scum might kill me if I target them, which is perhaps my hint that the person who I target can still target me successfully. Balance wise that adjustment is usually made when the GM does not want the Hider to be a sort of cop.

I don't know how Retal flavors it, but previous games I've seen would give a "can't find your target" result. KY, when you drive someone to a new target, does your target know they wound up at the wrong place?

Honestly @Jeodit feels like you have intentionally misrepresented my case in an attempt to get rid of me, and maybe I should be voting you instead. That flip flop is just majestic. In what world would it make sense to join the others in scrutinizing you for saying FRAYDO and Sunflower could be faking the failed kill, when my actual position on the idea was that I found it possible. Unlikely, but possible, and not to be forgotten about.

Wow, you flipped your argument pretty fast. Not sure how I'm managing to be suspicious both for "working with Louis" and "not working with Louis" at pretty much the same time. Feels pretty familiar, given ChopBam and iLTS making opposite arguments against me last game for "being too narrow minded" to "considering too many possibilities" but this time it's two people on both sides of the fence. Real cute. Let's back this suspicion bus back to where it started, yeah? You decided earlier that I was suspicious because my story couldn't be verified and maybe I was working with Louis to make said story. Then with literally no new information, you decide actually I wouldn't be bussing my partner so clearly I'm the only scum. But now you've forgotten the basis of your argument. If Louis and I are not partners, than how does the supposed lie I am making work? I reported my target and the fact that I had somehow magically gotten an item before she revealed who she passed the item to. If I was faking the hider claim and picked someone other than Louis as my fake target, I'm found out right away because Louis can claim she passed an item to me and boom, I'm caught. Makes no sense to make this kind of claim. Why wouldn't I just stay quiet about it or come up with something else? I think your argument that I'm actually working with Louis actually makes more sense, frankly. And to that I say: ##vote Louis

I was given a clarification that I lost the amulet specifically at the start of the night phase. I still think that could be the result of a hidden day action, but I'm less sure now. Still, I think unless ChopBam took it himself, someone else had to be the go-between over the night phase.

What

Checking the time, I was notified that the amulet was no longer in my possession a couple hours after hammer. I don't know for sure if it was the result of a day action and I was notified late, happened after the lynch, or if it was a night action that was resolved instantly. However, for it to wind up with Chopbam would either suggest that he took it, or whoever gave it to him stole it during the day in order to pass it again during the night. It seems similar to Majora's Mask, so I think someone is lying about how it's getting moved around, and I'm leaning towards it being Louis given the discrepancy between her and Orange's reports. Which is unfortunate given that she has claimed BP. I hid behind her again given that she would seem to offer me an extra layer of protection, but perhaps that is too good to be true.