iLikeToSnipe

Me saying what I feel like you'd do no matter what? That's just my feeling.

Okay, I think I get what you're saying. That if I was mafia my only option would be to kill KY. Since KY died I'm mafia then. Putting myself into iLikeToScum's shoes, I would have killed you actually. The only reasons I've seen are being afraid of being investigated, which wouldn't be the case, and "galaxy brain play". As has been pointed out, KY was agreeing with me that Orange was mafia. It would be to my advantage to keep him alive and on my side. If his only two possible cop sanities are sane or naive, why would he not investigate his primary suspect? I don't see any reason to kill KY if I were mafia. I mean, I would be more likely to not do a night kill at all than to kill KY as mafia... I feel that no matter what happened with the night kill Orange would be saying it was a galaxy brain play mafia gambit from me. And that's the truth honestly, I do go for galaxy brain plays as mafia. In this case that would be killing you and blaming it on Orange to try and get town lynched. I don't kill town supporters as mafia. That's just bad strategy.

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying that if I was mafia I would have had to kill KY?

Ah, I missed that. Right where you didn't say that.

I accidentally hit the shortcut to close my Chrome window while typing up mine and it saved it. This is so much better than the old forum.

@ChopBam Okay, let me do a rehash. On D2 it came down to either KY or Orange as the last mafia. Expecting myself to die N2 and not being able to trust a cop report from either of them, I knew that the only way to reliably find mafia was to go back to post analysis. Since we haven't had much content this game compared to others, I just started at the very beginning of D1 and worked my way through. That's where I noticed an immediate difference between KY and Orange. KY floated the idea of a nolynch, Orange floated the idea of lynching Voe. Discussion kept on going and Orange started the lynch train on Voe. I came back, read through the posts, gave my thoughts on nolynch vs lynch, and pointed out that I thought it suspicious how quickly Voe gained enough votes to be lynched. Instead of actually responding to any of my points, Orange immediately told me to "try again" and called me the scummiest player without any reasoning. The responses from everyone else to my post were calm and reasonable. Orange continued to attack me with a whole bunch of WIFOM and conjecture, as well as a flimsy attack on my post style; if you really want to go back and look at my post history you'll see that it's consistent between all alignments. Orange then skips over obvious logical steps, such as nolynching as much as we can, and finishes up D1 with a weak admission that nolynching makes more sense and still calling me scummy without providing any actual reasoning as to why. This is just what happened during D1. When comparing Orange to KY D2, it was very obvious to me that one player was scummier than the other. I then made a post with these findings and placed my vote onto Orange. That's when Orange went aggressive and everything just devolved into a mess. The content of Orange's posts the rest of that day don't matter as much to me as the pattern behind them. Orange is just trying to get any lynch to happen. He's not trying to find scum. His behavior on D1 and his reactions to my post D2 were scummy. D2 he was not being helpful. I'll just let KY summarize this for me. "I don't like his line of reasoning, as it seems oriented around making his decisions seem right rather than helping town. iLTS, on the other hand, has been very helpful, and his logic seems very pro-Town."

That might be your answer actually. Compare who in this case is using hyperbole and being relentless and who isn't... If you want me to re-summarize all the points I've made against Orange I can do that; it has gotten muddled in the past two days. Despite what he says, I have not made "multiple logical fallacies". Now that you talk about it and I type this out, Orange is doing exactly what I did to you. He's ignoring post content or the actual content of an argument. If I try and point out that he was the only one to continue arguing for a lynch on Voe and did so with weak arguments against me instead of the actual content of my arguments, he just skips over that. He picks and chooses what he argues against instead of the whole picture.

And you conveniently skip over the fact that KY was in favor of a lynch of you today.

It was more to point out that what Orange has been saying since last night is just false and a scum tell. I did not start out with attacking him and he opened up with being pretty hostile to me. Orange did have two options D2 for possibly pushing the lynch onto, myself and KY. Once you said you were suspicious of me, I think that made KY the better target for him. He had to go for either of us.

If I'm scum, why would I actually be worried about KY investigating me when you take in all the facts and information? KY stated he thought Orange was mafia Either Voe or KY are the sane cop, so it's a 50/50 chance KY had only myself or Orange left to investigate Knowing KY's meta, I would think that he would investigate the player he's actually suspicious of. So if I'm mafia why would I eliminate a player who is "on my side"? If I had killed ChopBam that would be the expected night kill and wouldn't put any suspicion on me. Then it'd be down to me and someone who was already leaning my way. A KY kill for me as mafia would just be dumb. That would put me at a less than 50% chance of winning as mafia, which is worse than just gambling on a cop investigation.

That looks good to me at first glance.

moar charts

@ChopBam Might I suggest you go here and read a few posts?

Could it technically provide some level of benefit to town? Yeah, it could. But would that benefit to town outweigh the benefit to mafia? Absolutely not. You're full of crap right now and I'm done debating with you. "I think you need to try again. Also, if we were voting purely on who's scummiest, I'd probably vote for you, just so you know." That was your immediate response to my post that suggested a nolynch. My post that didn't target a single person, it just put forward the case for a nolynch and expressed concern that one of the players who was on the Voe lynch could be mafia. If anybody has had a knee-jerk reaction it's you. You're the one that jumped headfirst into baseless attacks and continued them with crappy reasoning.

This is not what I expected... I investigated Orange and got a result of town. ##vote Orange

I wouldn't call your logic totally without a single point of non-good value. But I will call it logic that does not actually work in favor for town under any possible scenario we could have had. Proposing that plan doesn't make you scum, people do make mistakes. But continuing to push for it, attacking someone opposing you with wimpy meta and WIFOM, that's super scummy in my book. What you all need to do is take a step back and realize that I'm not tunneling Orange. He's the only player in the game right now with anti-town actions. I'm not going to rehash my arguments, you can all look back at them D3.

Or I could not be.

The whole reasoning behind a no lynch was to gather more information to find mafia. I've already explained why I don't believe the remaining town on D3 will get any useful information. With what I've found in your posts and the way you reacted to my posts, I have no doubt that you're mafia. So by my own logic, why wait?

I think I was pretty charitable and forgiving D1. It's just been after your reactions today and further actions.

That's your opinion, but I think this game has demonstrated that it's wrong. For town the keys are information and time. For mafia the key is control. With enough information and time, town narrows down the suspect list without needing to make any lynches themselves. The mafia player has to do their best to control that information and throw in fake reports. Imagine if we had lynched Voe and then one of us four was dead? We wouldn't have any of the charts that ChopBam was able to put together. I don't know how you can't see it, but it really isn't about Voe that much. The whole point is that lynching anybody D1 is a 100% scum move no matter the context. In no way outside of some insane RNG that I don't even know is possible (i.e. multiple N0 reports hitting scum and confirming them) does it ever make sense for town to lynch D1. Yes, there were some points to lynch Voe that weren't bad. That doesn't mean it wasn't an awful idea anyways. I've never played this game mode before, I admittedly wasn't sure how best to play it in the beginning, but I knew immediately that a D1 lynch like that was not going to help. Throughout all of this it's taken a lot of effort to just get you to begrudgingly admit that maybe a D1 lynch wasn't a good idea. You want to talk about how you're shocked I don't see things? I'm shocked that you could be town and not see the D1 lynch as bad.

Orange's reaction to my post has further cemented my scum read of him. His posts about the Voe kill manage to claim at the same time that it's both the worst kill for mafia to possibly make (you'd have to be stupid to want to kill Voe) while also giving reasons for other players to make the kill and be mafia. On top of that, there's a small dash of OMGUS. Just like his attempt to keep a Voe lynch on the rails D1 I still don't see much substance in his posts.

This is a red herring and false. "scum!Orange would be more concerned with keeping options open as to what cop to pretend to be" Really? Do you know how you get yourself options to fake a cop in this game as mafia? You kill a cop and try to take over their sanity. Voe could have been the sane or naive cop, that's half of the sanities in this game. With your knowledge of who's town you'd be able to figure out at least who falls into the sane/naive cop category and work from there. Don't act like killing Voe wouldn't help you at all, that's just not true at any level. Eliminates town and forces D2 into LYLO (massive advantage for mafia) Gives you a relatively safe way to kill a town player D1 (other town players were in favor of it, you just had to kick it off) Eliminates a cop with an ambiguous sanity and allows you to claim one of them Actually, I only made a soft-claim at first; admittedly I look back on it and it was a pretty bad attempt at any kind of soft-claim. Your report claim was before I outright said mine.

Actually, I went back to D1 and thought through the start of the day as if I were mafia. By the time I got to all the cop reports, I realized that there were only two mafia reports of which I was one of. At minimum, there must be one mafia result because of the paranoid cop. If I were mafia and made a fake mafia cop claim, that would make you the paranoid cop by process of elimination. So one of the town results (i.e. the one landing on mafia) would be the insane cop. There's no way I wouldn't have picked up on this scenario if I were mafia. I would have wanted Voe lynched and I would have used my knowledge of you being the paranoid cop to my advantage. You and KY voted for Voe, that's true. But let me clarify what I mean. I made my post arguing for a nolynch. You and KY switched to a nolynch with no issues, no opposition. Orange fought against a nolynch and used very poor reasoning. Or I'm just really good at being able to take a step back and think like mafia/non-town. You expect yourself to be the night kill because you are confirmed town. In a multi-scum game that can go on for several more days, maybe. But this isn't that kind of game. Ask yourself this, if D3 starts and it's just you, Orange, and KY who do you vote for? You aren't going to get any new information from your cop report. You can't trust any report from Orange or KY. In other words, you are back to the exact same point we're at right now. Having to rely not on cop reports, but on post analysis. I want town to win this game, I know that either Orange or KY are scum, I know that if I live through the night I will confirm who it is, so I know that I'm not going to live through the night. Because of that we have to scum hunt "the old fashioned way", and I'm the only one who seems aware of that. The charts and logic have really helped and gotten us to this point, but they aren't going to win us the game now. Nobody else on my team seems to realize the predicament we're in right now. That's why I'm jumping to action and that's why I actually have some worry as town.

I've been going back over the posts from Orange and KY, and these stood out to me. KY was actually the first to suggest a no lynch, the strategy that is most optimal for town. Orange soft countered right after that with a suggestion to kill players to faster check their alignment, the strategy that is most optimal for mafia. Now, that's not 100% proof of either's alignment, but it's a start. My suggestion of a no lynch and concern for a rapid lynch train on Voe was met with accusations of scumminess from only one person, Orange. These accusations were not backed up by anything other than meta arguments. As best I know, not one other person here was opposed to a no lynch plan besides Orange. We know that Orange was the first to suggest killing other players, the first to vote for Voe, and the only one to continue pushing for any lynch on players. If anyone has demonstrated any scummy behavior in their posts and actions, it's Orange. Now, I know Orange is going to pull out a last ditch effort and make a case against me. So I'll let Orange do the talking for me. "The implication being if you're scum you're trying to get us to no lynch because it's advantageous to you." Let me remind you all, if I am mafia, then Voe has to be the insane cop and got an N0 investigation on me. In what world would it be advantageous to me to no lynch as mafia, let alone a no lynch that spares the player who would certainly out me as mafia? I mean, let's walk through this logically. Once all the claims were made, there were two mafia results and three town. If I were mafia I would have to have known that Voe were the insane cop in that situation and that he would out me the next day. I would have supported that lynch and I would get an extra kill during the night! That'd be insanely lucky for me, how could I pass up that opportunity? But, only one player put forth effort into getting Voe lynched. Orange believed a Voe lynch was to his advantage. Obviously, he would eliminate town on D1 and force D2 into LYLO. He would also eliminate a player who had gotten a cop report of the same alignment he claimed, making it easier for him to fake a claim. There's motive, there's action, and I don't think there's any reasonable doubt. At this point, I am absolutely confident that the mafia player is Orange so I see no point in delaying this. ##vote Orange