Killing_You

After a reread, something has stuck out that's really bothered me: FRAYDO's result on Cat5. We know FRAYDO was a town cop, and we know he returned a Third Party result on Cat5, when he claimed Neutral. This gives us two scenarios to work with: Either Cat5 is Neutral and FRAYDO was wrong, or Cat5 is TP and FRAYDO was right. Before we move on, I want to keep two posts in mind, as they've provided a framework of sorts for this game. Ready? Here we go. Scenario 1: Cat5 is Neutral Cat5 has already given us plenty of what we need to make this work. Basically, he claims that Night 1, he was attacked by someone who was; 1. Undetectable, 2. Able to mess with cop results, and, 3. Able to nightkill at the same time. Ignoring this being a rather absurd role, why would someone skew with the investigation results of someone they were going to off anyway? Sure, this could have been the result of our randomizer, but that would break the pattern that we've seen thus far. (The pattern being three instances of targets being RNG'd). If this was the case, we would very likely be playing a troll game with little to no rules and a stupidly powerful scum. However, there is an alternate scenario. Scenario 2: Cat5 is Third Party Before I go on, I want you to look at the above scenario again. Read how much evidence, and how extravagant it would need to be in order to work. Now, back to this scenario. Do you want to know what it would take for this to work? Cat5 being a liar. Everything falls into place. FRAYDO's report. The amount of RNG hits. The odd nightkill attempts. Allow me to go into detail here. Let's say Cat5 truly is Third Party. Why would he hide his identity? Obviously to keep himself alive to attain his goals. His whole disappearing act D2 and N2? I have a feeling he activated an ability that causes three people per night to have randomized targets, with the caveat of him being forcibly absent for the following day and night post-activation. And perhaps it also applies this effect during the day (not counting voting or lynching) , but the first ability successfully activated during the day is immune to this effect. Think about it: We didn't see this effect during the day until D3. D2, though, only had 1 ability successfully activate: Orange's roleblock. Sure, Jeod had activated his Raise Dead ability, but it failed. Perhaps this means it was exempt from the ability due to daytime naturally being very different as opposed to night time. It also explains why Alstar's ability went off perfectly fine, but then every ability used afterward (again, a total of three) went awry and hit random targets. Even if that's not how it works or if Cat5's ability N1 isn't tied to these RNG shenanigans, him activating his ability on himself also solves another discrepancy: The nightkills. He suggested that the Mafia had multiple nightkills available to him, as an attempt to explain what happened N1. However, due to the lack of evidence for a second attempt N2, he ran into a problem, and was forced to suggest that the second NK was roleblocked. But what if he wasn't hit with an NK attempt N1? Let's look at this chart again, using only confirmed NKs and eliminating the attempt on him. Pretty straightforward, eh? I believe this is the most likely scenario. Cat5's been tossing around a bunch of theories and disinformation to throw us off the trail. But the question remains: How does Alstar fit into this? Let's say he has a second night ability, and he's telling the truth here. What would be the most possible scenario for Alstar here? Well, let's say my ability didn't go haywire, but Alstar wasn't affected by the randomizer. He's already claimed a passive that let's him see who visited him at night. It's possible that he did watch Cat5 N1 while Orange went for the kill (and failed, as we saw), but with Orange gone, went for Choppy last night and claimed to have watched himself by accident? He would have all the information he needed to make a false claim and save his own arse. Unfortunately for him, FRAYDO managed to discover his true colors before being run down accidentally. Thus the players are as such: Alstar ChopBam FRAYDO Jeod Killing You Voe Kamuixmod Nodlied OrangeP47 Category 5 Hurricane I'm keeping my vote where it is for now. But if we feel more inclined to hit Orange today, I won't argue.

Aren't insane cops usually given a sane cop in the same game to balance them out?

Oh, I misread your post. My bad. In that case, it should be threes.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean.

Let's see here for a sec. Assuming the scenario is that the randomizer has acted consistently each time, of course. N1 Randomizer Hits: -ChopBam -FRAYDO -OrangeP47 N2 Randomizer Hits: -FRAYDO -Alstar -Killing You D3 Randomizer Hits: -Voe -Jeod -Killing You Seems to me that it happens in threes. There is one other possibility, though, and it's assuming my ability went haywire N2. That would indicate: N1 Randomizer Hits: -ChopBam -FRAYDO -OrangeP47 N2 Randomizer Hits: -FRAYDO -Killing You D3 Randomizer Hits: -Voe -Jeod -Killing You Keep in mind, my post-randomizer hit happened after OrangeP47 was resurrected. This, taken into account that Cat5 calculated 3 Mafia, would indicate that the randomization is tied to the number of Mafia still alive. Based on my calculations, you should be safe to do so. The only thing that I'm worried about is there being no pattern, but I sincerely doubt it.

Hey Cat5... what are the chances we have another hostile 3rd party in our midst? Perhaps the one responsible for the action switching?

Only thing I can think of is that we're only 99% sure about Alstar whereas Orange is 100%. On the other hand, Orange lost his abilities while Alstar still has them. Which one is the bigger risk?

So which is it then? It makes no difference to me.

Sounds like a solid plan to me. Especially since we're in LyLo. ##vote Alstar

Oh. Fair enough.

What? Where did that come from?

I'm starting to wonder if this RNG is built-in to the game rather than one player's ability. This is nuts.

Huh. So he was.

What the fu- Okay, he was telling the truth, I suppose. Oh shit! Well, two birds with one stone, as mentioned before. ##incinerate Alstar ##vote OrangeP47

Alright, I'm caught up. Well, I was trying to target Jeod, but it seems to have RNG'd itself over to you. Whatever happened will likely be explained when you do flip (thanks for that, Voe). I will say, though, that if you weren't hit by the randomizer, then what likely happened is that the negative effect of my ability kicked in and your ability got reflected. If so, my apologies, was not my intention. I find this somewhat dubious. Your N1 report was already suspicious (and confirmed false by Cat5), and you really only pop in to either deliver a flimsy report to save yourself, or cast shade on others. It almost seems like you're less concerned with helping town and more concerned with saving your own hide. Now, granted, you could be telling the truth and are simply being smug as usual, in which case I'd have to forgive you. But if you're lying... I totally did not expect this to ACTUALLY show up as a role! Well done, Voe! +1

Jeez, you guys sure love to stay up late and talk and talk. Gimme a minute to catch up.

Ah, welcome back to the fold, Cat5. Any news from... well, wherever you were?

You'll get it one day. I have faith in you.

I'm still not convinced FRAYDO isn't a threat, but I'll admit I was wrong for thinking him a murderer.

At least I only hit scumreads that others have scumreads on, rather than just shooting fellow townies to "keep them in line"... unlike some other players we know.

I honestly didn't think about it. However, one of my day abilities sends someone to an alternate dimension for the rest of the day, I wouldn't put it past FRAYDO to have something similar. Oh. How cheeky.

Rereading the thread, I really don't like FRAYDO. He's been very quiet, and when he did come back, all he did was implicate Orange, make a claim, and try to cast shade on me. He then shitposted a bit and left. Granted, Orange's response has been disjointed and I'm less and less inclined to see him as town, but given that we have a resurrection ability I wouldn't be shocked to see a third party/scum mix. Really, all he did was jump in to take the heat off of him and then jump back out. Same gambit as he did in July Crisis. Not to mention, the more claims we've had, the easier it would be to fudge an identity. I don't really believe this alignment cop claim, and I think he may be responsible for what happened to Cat5. Indeed, I think it's highly likely that FRAYDO is responsible for the mystery surrounding Cat5, whatever that may be. Maybe it was a true death, maybe it was a scumtrap, who knows. But there's a lot of unanswered questions here and I don't think his story really adds up. Plus, his alignment could potentially convict or clear Orange. Mind is made up. Once Irish comes back and resolves the resurrection, I'm turning the heat up. Literally.

Pretty much the only reason FRAYDO's not a pile of ash.