Games [Game Over] The July Crisis Mafia

[Retaliation]

If Orange is just suspicious you can confirm your idea by looking at the item in the vault right?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I haven't seen an item in the vault yet, but I'd be surprised if I'm not given the description.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

OrangeP47, if you are town and telling the truth right now, you will die, and possibly have your item taken from you so that town can't control where it goes. Why are you holding your vote where it is?

[Category 5 Hurricane]

If you are telling the truth and we don't investigate you* you will die

[VERTi60]

Personally I don't believe anything Orange is claiming and it's probably a scum trap to lure out the real doctor/bodyguard. I hope we have him investigated though.

(common scum tactic)

[Chaos_Knight]

6 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

-snip-

It hasn't occured to you that he might be lying for another reason though. Something I've considered myself for some time since armored vest and "standing in front of someone" does sound pretty silly.
He has BP vest which he really doesn't want to lose it seems. He also claimed a role which basically screams "NK me". What if he's just BP himself? Trying to get scum target him at least for a night.
"Lynch all liars" on the other hand, though...

Now I find it pretty amusing that you try to order everyone around while you have said yourself that you are suspicious since D1. You also seem pretty set on the fact that Vert is telling the truth because... he argued with me. Curious logic chain.

You may be suspicious about me, but I can prove myself tonight. What can you actually prove though?

And the following tirade of "Why don't you just give up"...  

Last time you had one of your "bright" idea pushes 1h before hammer we lost our doc in CYOR game. And how funny, I was tracker in that game too.

[VERTi60]

And on a small chance he's telling the truth at least we have him and his items safe.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

For that matter, that question applies to everyone who is voting VERTi60. You have a claimed doctor on deck who will die if he's telling the truth and not investigated. Why are your votes where they are?

Ah, Chaos. You've gotten way too predictable.

I did ask myself the question "What if he's just BP himself?" and that question led me towards the idea that he's the scum counter to Mojoman and Killing_You's weapons.

I've got one more line of attack I forgot about. Gimmie a minute to search OrangeP47's posts.

[Chaos_Knight]

Alright, might as well put my money where my mouth is.

##vote Verti60

I stand where I am on this. Call it any way you wish.

1 minute ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I did ask myself the question "What if he's just BP himself?" and that question led me towards the idea that he's the scum counter to Mojoman and Killing_You's weapons.

So now you just straight up say that Mojo and KY are town. No "what if", no doubt. Okay.

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Ah, Chaos. You've gotten way too predictable

Personal snarky remarks will not sway my overbloated ego  

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Mmm, now it's just wait and hope FRAYDO gets back before hammer, isn't it?

##voteinvestigate OrangeP47

[Chaos_Knight]

Right now you appear to be standing between me and the person I believe to be the thief and quite possibly murderer.

That alone puts you pretty high on my suspect list from the last place you used to have due to your contributions and participation.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

That's odd, because that's exactly what I think OrangeP47 is. However, even in the case where I am wrong, I at least gain a benefit that I'm not making the totally wrong choice, because I'm keeping a BP item in play. If you are wrong, there is no silver lining.

[Chaos_Knight]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

That's odd, because that's exactly what I think OrangeP47 is. However, even in the case where I am wrong, I at least gain a benefit that I'm not making the totally wrong choice, because I'm keeping a BP item in play. If you are wrong, there is no silver lining.

On 12.08.2017 at 1:01 AM, Nodlied said:

A suspicious person, he could investigate targets at night to see what their actions were. His items, a Grenade and a Typewriter, have been transfered to the vault. In any case, with a potential murderer on the lose, we must move quicly to uncover the truth and find the killer!

If I am wrong, we'd just have someone fetch the item from the vault and make a new BP person.

Unless they rob AND kill him at the same time of course. But they didn't do that with the grenade for some reason so...

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Yes, this is true... Maybe it's because they feel like they don't need to fear the Grenade. Like, perhaps they have daytime BP? And having it used was favorable to them, to at least a small degree.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

That is making do some thinking. If I'm wrong, we're looking at an entirely different set of scum. Probably. Like, if OrangeP47 has BP, that means it's more likely Mojoman and Killing_You are scum, perhaps paired with either VERTi60 or FRAYDO. The problem with that thought, however, is that Mojoman and Killing_You are on your train.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I don't fully trust them, as you can see with them leading my "ur wong stupd" scum team. Killing_You's Grenade seems more like it would be a scum item, and Mojoman has acted against the actions we discussed the previous night. I think I may gain an answer to that latter mystery, though.

[Chaos_Knight]

2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Yes, this is true... Maybe it's because they feel like they don't need to fear the Grenade. Like, perhaps they have daytime BP? And having it used was favorable to them, to at least a small degree.

Who knows. I don't think armor vest can logically withstand a grenade.

1 minute ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

That is making do some thinking. If I'm wrong, we're looking at an entirely different set of scum. Probably. Like, if OrangeP47 has BP, that means it's more likely Mojoman and Killing_You are scum, perhaps paired with either VERTi60 or FRAYDO. The problem with that thought, however, is that Mojoman and Killing_You are on your train.

You are making me somewhat suspicious to be honest with your defense of Verti60.
If you aren't one, then I'd suspect FRAYDO and Vert team up. Or a bus...

And if we are both wrong, oh boy. Anyone from our trains can be suspicious.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I actually don't have a defense for VERTi60. My case is all about OrangeP47. If it weren't for him, I'd probably be trying to decide between going for FRAYDO again or investigating VERTi60. If I'm wrong, we're absolutely investigating VERTi60 next.

[Chaos_Knight]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I actually don't have a defense for VERTi60. My case is all about OrangeP47. If it weren't for him, I'd probably be trying to decide between going for FRAYDO again or investigating VERTi60. If I'm wrong, we're absolutely investigating VERTi60 next.

Fair enough.

FRAYDO is a curious case of "unknown" MIA after all.

[Nodlied]

22 minutes ago, Chaos_Knight said:

##vote Verti60

Counted

 

20 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

##voteinvestigate OrangeP47

Counted

 

Hammerzeit!

[Nodlied]

 

 

The day has come to an end and it is time to tally up the votes. Looks like .... we have a tie??? It's on between OrangeP47 and Verti60. You guys decide to draw straws and it looks like Verti60 is the loser. Right, onwards with the investigation! Verti60 is known as Dragutin Hristov and is a Serbian national.

He currently has no items. But what about his status? Well it looks like he's innocent. He'll be released immediately!

Additionally, you nominated Category 5 to gain access to the vault tonight!

 

Sleep well everyone. Oh, and don't forget to send in your night actions at least one hour before day time! I'll be updating your night profiles now. So give me a moment.

 

~24 hours remain until the end of the night!

 

Announcement:
I'll be teaching again tomorrow. This means that I'll have to get up at 6:30 (in about 6 hours). So to prevent me from being absolutely exhausted every morning, I'd like to ask what you guys would be in favour of. I currently have two options. Number 1 is to simply let Voe handle the night and day posts. Number 2 is to move the day/night phases by one hour, so in about 23 hours from now. This would also move the deadline for night actions to around 22 hours from now. 

So let me know what you think and want to vote for. I won't count any posts that are dedicated to this subject as nightposts. So please come to an agreement.  Thanks!

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Fuck you RNG.

[Chaos_Knight]

And now, I am proven wrong. Yay. >_>

Siiiiighhhhh... Back to the drawing board.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Also, I don't care if hammer time moves.

[VERTi60]

You guys are retarded. Esp. CK and KY. Now if Orange was scum, he'll pass away all the evidence. And for a little chance he was telling the truth, we just lost our bodyguard.

[TheIrishman]

Fun stuff. I'm good with moving the hammer ahead by an hour.

[Retaliation]

I think at this point it's reasonable to assume chaos and orange are scumbuddies. Chaos at the very least is scum. Not the killer (he was locked up), but scum nonetheless.

Of my three top suspects (Chaos, Orange, FRAYDO)

FRAYDO cannot be the thief as he was roleblocked night 2.

Chaos could be the thief but not Jeod's Killer.

Orange could be either the killer or the thief.

If there are only 2 scum it suggests that the thief was forced to act as the killer last night. This is impossible if chaos and fraydo are a scum team.

[Killing_You]

Alright, so a few things. First and foremost, go ahead and move hammer. I personally don't mind. And new rule, if I think someone is scum, assume they're town.  

5 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

For that matter, that question applies to everyone who is voting VERTi60. You have a claimed doctor on deck who will die if he's telling the truth and not investigated. Why are your votes where they are?

In my case, mostly because I was scumreading Verti60 hard, and Orange not as much. Also, the way I see it, this leaves us with four possible scenarios:

1. Orange is telling the truth and scum kill him. In this instance, his role, status, and item will be revealed anyway, and his item will be transferred to the vault. The way I see it, it won't have changed from investigating him tonight, aside from also partly clearing Verti.

2. Orange is telling the truth, but scum ignore him. This is likely the most dangerous scenario, as our sights will be fixated on him tomorrow, essentially giving scum a "freebie" night to do whatever they please. Then they'll likely kill him the next night, as they wouldn't be able to scapegoat him.

3. Orange is telling the truth, but he's immune to nightkills due to his vest. This will have the same outcome as above, unless scum try and fail to kill him tonight, at which point that "freebie" night will be rendered mostly moot. They'd still scapegoat him, though.

4. Orange is scum. After today's result, and taking what we know into account, this is the most likely scenario. Sure, he'll hot potato the evidence away, but we'll hit it at some point. If we investigate him tomorrow and he doesn't flip Hostile, I'd recommend FRAYDO next, as he's the second most likely to be the killer.

So at this point, we're moving forward with Cat5's plan of investigate Orange. If we do this carefully and methodically, we can still win.

[TheIrishman]

*sigh* I still don't understand why all the suspicion on Vert. I already explained multiple times from a GM's point of view, putting him as scum wouldn't make sense. Yeah, he was a bit sketchy, but he wasn't entirely following along with the game to begin with. This, like Cat5, just makes me suspect the people who voted him even more.

Updated Table.

Players	Nationality	Status	Items	Evidence	Role	Town/Scum %
Jeod	American	Town Dead	(Typewriter) (Grenade)	None	Reporter Tracker	100/0
Category 5	Austrian	“Suspicious”	“Spyglass”	Unknown	Navy Officer?	80/20
TheIrishman	Bosnian	Innocent	Unknown	None that I know of	Unknown	100/0
FRAYDO	Serbian	Suspicious	None	Black Hand Book	Unknown	20/80
Mojoman	Serbian	“Innocent”	Telephone Colt	“No Evidence”	“Locked till X%”	50/50
Chaos_Knight	Serbian	Suspicious	None	More Black Hand stuff	“Tracker”	50/50
Killing_You	Bosnian	Unknown	(Grenade)	Unknown	Unknown	40/60
Verti60	Serbian	Innocent	“None”	“None”	“Backup”	95/5
OrangeP47	Austrian	“Suspicious”	“BP Vest”	“No Evidence”	“Protector”	25/75
Retaliation	Hungarian	“Suspicious”	Something	Unknown	“Locked till X”	70/30

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Ok, so there have been some complications in the vault. There are some items in the vault now that were recovered, and I think it's possible that those things have impacted the evidence progress bar. What I'm going to do is try to eliminate that x-factor as a possibility by moving one of the pieces of evidence, the one that we got from Chaos (which I think might be fake) back to the locker. I'm also going to send out one of the recovered items from the vault to someone to identify that variable,

If I'm right about this, there should be no change to the evidence progress bar. If it moves backwards, then we have evidence that the piece on Chaos is actually true, no matter how much. If it moves all the way back to 20%, then we need to switch both pieces of evidence, so Chaos' is true and FRAYDO's is not. If it moves back to 23% or any number less than 26% but more than 20%, then the progress bar was affected by the items in the vault. It can't be that placing evidence in the truth box adds 3%, because you can't add 10s and 3s together to get 100%. That's why I determined that one of the pieces of evidence is probably fake.

If it moves forward for some reason, then we might have direct evidence that these extra things I have here actually have moved the progress bar, and moving the evidence between boxes might not be moving the progress bar at all. Unless it moves forward to 30%, in which case I think false evidence counts for -4%.

In Short: Theoretical Numbers

Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece
True Evidence in Box: +6% per piece
Expected result of 26% if FRAYDO's piece is true, 20% if false.
This would mean 5 pieces of true evidence, and 2 fakes, total 7.

OR

Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece
True Evidence in Box: +10% per piece
False Evidence in Box: -4% per piece
Expected result of 30% if FRAYDO's piece is true, 20% if false.
This would mean 5 pieces of true evidence, and any number of fakes.

OR

Evidence in Locker: +10% per piece
True Evidence in Box: ???
False Evidence in Box: ???
Recovered Items: +3%
I don't think that this path is likely, but for the sake of dotting and crossing, I'm including it as possible.

 

@Chaos_Knight awww where did your paranoia go? You had all sorts of theories about how Orange might be telling the truth or that I'm lying for this or that reason and I'm protecting VERTi60 and everything isn't as it seems...and then you get an investigation result in which the only thing proven is that VERTi60 hasn't lied about being innocent or Serbian, and you just concede? Why can't VERTi60 be lying now? You've been making up conspiracies all day, did your imagination run out?

I have to admit though, the closing stages of your argument did start to make me waver. I'm not quite as certain about you as I have been. Still totally sold on FRAYDO and OrangeP47, but I might replace you with Killing_You on my suspect list, because it looks like he's trying to set the stage for explaining why OrangeP47 might survive even if he's telling the "truth". You know, despite the fact that we've narrowed down the thief suspects down to one person.

@Retaliation speaking of which, Chaos can't be the thief. He wasn't holding my SpyGlass when investigated and he would not have been able to hide it. I suppose there are others that could theoretically be the thief, (you, Mojoman, Killing_You, TheIrishman) but for all of them I have reasons to believe they are not....but then there is Killing_You again. I'm going to have to review him when I can.