Games {Game Over} {CYOR} Spooky Scary Scumhunting

[FRAYDO]

6 hours ago, ChopBam said:

This is one bit that would be very concerning to me if true.

Fortunately, it is not true.

6 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

I'm not sure if being heir would make someone scum, per se, but I could see it making them neutral or TP possibly.

Naming someone as my heir changes nothing of their alignment. Town, Scum, Third-Party, Neutral, they can be whatever they want to be and will remain so. I only ask that they take over the factory for me when this game is over. However, I have yet to name my heir and cannot do so until this upcoming night.

[FRAYDO]

6 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

The actual claim is that he has a second life, and if he dies he revives as a different alignment.

 

2 hours ago, Sunflower said:

I'd been thinking KY would be the safest lynch just because if he's not scum, he's not town either. Not sure what to make of this new info.

I wonder about this. Recall our GM confirmation earlier.

On 11/3/2019 at 3:12 PM, Retaliation said:

Only town aligned players count for mafia outnumbering.

And recall too our currently proposed headcount.
3 Town, 2 Scum, 2 Neutral

If Killing_You were to be lynched today, we do not know which alignment he will revive as. We are liable to place ourselves in one of two ways:

4 Town, 2 Scum, 1 Neutral
or
3 Town, 3 Scum, 1 Neutral

I do not believe Killing You is our safest lynch today.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I can see why KY would try to downplay the idea of doing voting analysis, because I don't think he's going to like what I have found.

Day 2
Jeod - Louis    Louis 1    
Louis - Cat5    Louis 1 - Cat5 1
iLTS - OP47    Louis 1 - Cat5 1 - OP47 1
Jeod - OP47    OP47 2 - Cat5 1
Chop - OP47    OP47 3 - Cat5 1
KY - OP47    OP47 4 - Cat5 1
Chop - Unvote    OP47 3 - Cat5 1
KY - Unvote    OP47 2 - Cat5 1
Louis - Unvote    OP47 2  
Jeod - Unvote    OP47 1  
iLTS - NL    NL 1
KY - Cat5    NL 1 - Cat5 1
Flower - Nod    NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Nod 1
Flower - Jeod    NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Jeod - Cat5    Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1
Cat5 - OP47    Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
Jeod - Unvote    Cat5 1 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
KY - Unvote    NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
Chop - OP47    OP47 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1
KY - NL        OP47 2 - NL 2 - Jeod 1
OP47 - NL    NL 3 - OP47 2 - Jeod 1
Chop - NL    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Jeod 1
Flower - NL    NL 5 - OP47 1
KY - Louis    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1
Jeod - iLTS    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1 - iLTS 1
FRAYDO - iLTS    NL 4 - iLTS 2 - OP47 1 - Louis 1
KY - iLTS    NL 4 - iLTS 3 - OP47 1
OP47 - iLTS    iLTS 4 - NL 3 - OP47 1

Day 3
Jeod - Cat5    Cat5 1
KY - Louis    Cat5 1 - Louis 1
Louis - Jeod    Cat5 1 - Louis 1 - Jeod 1
KY - Cat5    Cat5 2 - Jeod 1
Cat5 - Louis    Cat5 2 - Jeod 1 - Louis 1
Flower - Louis    Cat5 2 - Louis 2 - Jeod 1
KY - Unvote    Louis 2 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Chop - Louis    Louis 3 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Jeod - Louis    Louis 4 - Jeod 1
OP47 - Cat5    Louis 4 - Jeod 1 - Cat5 1
Nod - Cat5    Louis 4 - Cat5 2 - Jeod 1
Flower - Cat5    Louis 3 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1
KY - Louis    Louis 4 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1
Louis - STAB    Louis 3 - Cat5 3
OP47 - Louis    Louis 4 - Cat5 2
Nod - Louis    Louis 5 - Cat5 1
Flower - Louis    Louis 6 
 

The formatting isn't going to come out very pretty on this, but the data is all there. In red I've marked all the votes that directly changed the leader of the lynch. In yellow are the votes that created ties for the lynch. Most of the early day ones don't matter. It's the end of day ones that are best looked at.

KY has had his hands in changing the lead of the vote 7 times.

For which players does he lower the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis, Me (4x), NoLynch, OrangeP47.
For which players does he raise the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis (3x), Me (2x), NoLynch (2x), OrangeP47.

Kinda interesting that the two lists match. KY seems to have been playing the vote game pretty heavily. Of course, at the end of the day his votes were iLTS and Louis. But let's take a more detailed look at KYs specific patterns.

Day 2 KY starts out with joining the OP47 train (who totally should have been lynched that day) only to drop off it at the first sign of it cooling off. It was a superfluous vote that didn't mean anything. He then starts a train on me when NoLynch was starting to gain traction, and is only forced off that vote when I come out as a Hider. Right after he unvotes, ChopBam places a vote on Orange that places him in the lead. KY moves to vote for NoLynch and Orange follows with his own matching vote. KY atttempts to drop off the train by making a meaningless vote for Louis after NoLynch already had a significant lead. But as soon as another realistic lynch comes into play, KY jumps on board and OrangeP47 follows again.

Day 3 involves KY's argument that I am on a team with OrangeP47. KY called Orange's vote on me meaningless, but his train on me resulted in a tie on me, and he only unvoted after Louis stabbed Jeod. It would seem the scum team didn't care so much which of myself and Louis got lynched, which certainly makes sense given that it appears that no mafia player was ever on the board that day and Louis's claimed ability and mine were both problems for Mafia.

[Retaliation]

1 hour ago, FRAYDO said:

I wonder about this. Recall our GM confirmation earlier.

I should note I misremembered the victory condition.

On 10/26/2019 at 4:22 PM, Retaliation said:

The Ghostafia wins when they either 1) Eliminate all town players or 2) Achieves control of 50% of the vote.

 

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I was going to go on a point by point rebuttal on KYs case on me and his attempt to link me to OrangeP47, but I got tired of writing the same response to every issue.

You're taking all of my posts out of context and inserting the context you need to make it fit.

How can my vote on OrangeP47 have no reasoning behind it? You quoted my post with my reasoning in it. I did not like OrangeP47's response to iLTS's little gambit and I still don't. And shortly after making that vote, I left, and didn't return until well after hammer. I placed my vote, at a time when I was the lead for the lynch, on my supposed team mate, which put him one vote away from being at risk himself, and left. This isn't placing a vote on the guy and then unvoting right away, like you did. I was committed to that vote, and I expected it to win. The guy had already led the vote earlier in the day, and I fully expected it to go back in that direction as a result of my claim. Instead you and Orange made sure someone else was lynched. Would you like to claim that you were in on it with me?

My vote on Louis is also being taken out of context. That was a "Oh, you think Louis and I are scum buddies huh, well here is what I say to that" vote. I said as much in the post where I voted. I was considering a case on Jeod later, but again by the time I got back, Louis had both killed Jeod and dug her own grave at the same time. There wasn't much point anymore, was there?

 

[Killing_You]

13 hours ago, ChopBam said:

This is one bit that would be very concerning to me if true.

Orange made a mistake with that tidbit. All FRAYDO can do is confiscate the ticket.

13 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

KY did make a claim to me that his alignment could change too. He talks as if it hasn't happened, but what if it DID happen, assuming he actually was neutral. That gives us TWO possible ways he could be in on all of this.

The actual claim is that he has a second life, and if he dies he revives as a different alignment.

Not gonna reveal details? Okay. Here's the thing; Had I been lynched D1 or nightkilled N1, I would've come back as Town. But we're past that now, and if either of those things happen, I'll flip Scum.

As for if it did happen, when would it have happened?

9 hours ago, Sunflower said:

I'd been thinking KY would be the safest lynch just because if he's not scum, he's not town either. Not sure what to make of this new info.

I'm definitely not a safe lynch.

5 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I can see why KY would try to downplay the idea of doing voting analysis, because I don't think he's going to like what I have found.

Day 2
Jeod - Louis    Louis 1    
Louis - Cat5    Louis 1 - Cat5 1
iLTS - OP47    Louis 1 - Cat5 1 - OP47 1
Jeod - OP47    OP47 2 - Cat5 1
Chop - OP47    OP47 3 - Cat5 1
KY - OP47    OP47 4 - Cat5 1
Chop - Unvote    OP47 3 - Cat5 1
KY - Unvote    OP47 2 - Cat5 1
Louis - Unvote    OP47 2  
Jeod - Unvote    OP47 1  
iLTS - NL    NL 1
KY - Cat5    NL 1 - Cat5 1
Flower - Nod    NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Nod 1
Flower - Jeod    NL 1 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Jeod - Cat5    Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1
Cat5 - OP47    Cat5 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
Jeod - Unvote    Cat5 1 - NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
KY - Unvote    NL 1 - Jeod 1 - OP47 1
Chop - OP47    OP47 2 - NL 1 - Jeod 1
KY - NL        OP47 2 - NL 2 - Jeod 1
OP47 - NL    NL 3 - OP47 2 - Jeod 1
Chop - NL    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Jeod 1
Flower - NL    NL 5 - OP47 1
KY - Louis    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1
Jeod - iLTS    NL 4 - OP47 1 - Louis 1 - iLTS 1
FRAYDO - iLTS    NL 4 - iLTS 2 - OP47 1 - Louis 1
KY - iLTS    NL 4 - iLTS 3 - OP47 1
OP47 - iLTS    iLTS 4 - NL 3 - OP47 1

Day 3
Jeod - Cat5    Cat5 1
KY - Louis    Cat5 1 - Louis 1
Louis - Jeod    Cat5 1 - Louis 1 - Jeod 1
KY - Cat5    Cat5 2 - Jeod 1
Cat5 - Louis    Cat5 2 - Jeod 1 - Louis 1
Flower - Louis    Cat5 2 - Louis 2 - Jeod 1
KY - Unvote    Louis 2 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Chop - Louis    Louis 3 - Cat5 1 - Jeod 1
Jeod - Louis    Louis 4 - Jeod 1
OP47 - Cat5    Louis 4 - Jeod 1 - Cat5 1
Nod - Cat5    Louis 4 - Cat5 2 - Jeod 1
Flower - Cat5    Louis 3 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1
KY - Louis    Louis 4 - Cat5 3 - Jeod 1
Louis - STAB    Louis 3 - Cat5 3
OP47 - Louis    Louis 4 - Cat5 2
Nod - Louis    Louis 5 - Cat5 1
Flower - Louis    Louis 6 
 

The formatting isn't going to come out very pretty on this, but the data is all there. In red I've marked all the votes that directly changed the leader of the lynch. In yellow are the votes that created ties for the lynch. Most of the early day ones don't matter. It's the end of day ones that are best looked at.

KY has had his hands in changing the lead of the vote 7 times.

For which players does he lower the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis, Me (4x), NoLynch, OrangeP47.
For which players does he raise the chances of being lynched when he does so? Jeod, Louis (3x), Me (2x), NoLynch (2x), OrangeP47.

Kinda interesting that the two lists match. KY seems to have been playing the vote game pretty heavily. Of course, at the end of the day his votes were iLTS and Louis. But let's take a more detailed look at KYs specific patterns.

Day 2 KY starts out with joining the OP47 train (who totally should have been lynched that day) only to drop off it at the first sign of it cooling off. It was a superfluous vote that didn't mean anything. He then starts a train on me when NoLynch was starting to gain traction, and is only forced off that vote when I come out as a Hider. Right after he unvotes, ChopBam places a vote on Orange that places him in the lead. KY moves to vote for NoLynch and Orange follows with his own matching vote. KY atttempts to drop off the train by making a meaningless vote for Louis after NoLynch already had a significant lead. But as soon as another realistic lynch comes into play, KY jumps on board and OrangeP47 follows again.

Day 3 involves KY's argument that I am on a team with OrangeP47. KY called Orange's vote on me meaningless, but his train on me resulted in a tie on me, and he only unvoted after Louis stabbed Jeod. It would seem the scum team didn't care so much which of myself and Louis got lynched, which certainly makes sense given that it appears that no mafia player was ever on the board that day and Louis's claimed ability and mine were both problems for Mafia.

Nice of you to finally pull out the big guns. Yeah, I've been aggressive. I've made some mistakes as well. So what? As a neutral, I can be wild and aggressive without a lot of repercussions. I can root for whoever I want, and I'm rooting for Town. 

4 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I was going to go on a point by point rebuttal on KYs case on me and his attempt to link me to OrangeP47, but I got tired of writing the same response to every issue.

You're taking all of my posts out of context and inserting the context you need to make it fit.

How can my vote on OrangeP47 have no reasoning behind it? You quoted my post with my reasoning in it. I did not like OrangeP47's response to iLTS's little gambit and I still don't. And shortly after making that vote, I left, and didn't return until well after hammer. I placed my vote, at a time when I was the lead for the lynch, on my supposed team mate, which put him one vote away from being at risk himself, and left. This isn't placing a vote on the guy and then unvoting right away, like you did. I was committed to that vote, and I expected it to win. The guy had already led the vote earlier in the day, and I fully expected it to go back in that direction as a result of my claim. Instead you and Orange made sure someone else was lynched. Would you like to claim that you were in on it with me?

My vote on Louis is also being taken out of context. That was a "Oh, you think Louis and I are scum buddies huh, well here is what I say to that" vote. I said as much in the post where I voted. I was considering a case on Jeod later, but again by the time I got back, Louis had both killed Jeod and dug her own grave at the same time. There wasn't much point anymore, was there?

 

I'm looking at your posts from the perspective that you're scum. Classic Mafia stuff. I may have misjudged some details, but I stand by my standings.

Plus, you're forgetting one point. One huge point that has been the driving force of my argument.

If you didn't try to kill FRAYDO N1, then who did?!

[OrangeP47]

1 hour ago, Killing_You said:

Not gonna reveal details? Okay. Here's the thing; Had I been lynched D1 or nightkilled N1, I would've come back as Town. But we're past that now, and if either of those things happen, I'll flip Scum.

As for if it did happen, when would it have happened?

Not a relevant detail and you could be making it up.  As for when it could have happened, we've speculated about scum having a second kill, particularly if there's only one scum (or started with one scum). An item would work wonders for that and allow them two kills one night, and we still have no verification of what Cat 5 did. It's easily possible it could have happened.

[Killing_You]

23 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Not a relevant detail and you could be making it up.  As for when it could have happened, we've speculated about scum having a second kill, particularly if there's only one scum (or started with one scum). An item would work wonders for that and allow them two kills one night, and we still have no verification of what Cat 5 did. It's easily possible it could have happened.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

I mean, people wanted alternatives, I gave it to them. Like so you're all just going to be against me no matter what I do? Might as well just end the day now and pack it in. If you're scum I of course don't expect YOU to be swayed, though, so perhaps I expect too much.

Your counter argument is essentially "no u" so doesn't hold much merit, maybe I've hit a nerve and this is actually what it is.

[OrangeP47]

I mean, I'll admit, finding evidence for it is hard, but your change in behavior should be accounted for.

Unfortunately I'm busy this morning and must AFK without putting in more work right now, but when I'm back, I'm not going to drop this.

[Killing_You]

1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said:

I mean, people wanted alternatives, I gave it to them. Like so you're all just going to be against me no matter what I do? Might as well just end the day now and pack it in. If you're scum I of course don't expect YOU to be swayed, though, so perhaps I expect too much.

Your counter argument is essentially "no u" so doesn't hold much merit, maybe I've hit a nerve and this is actually what it is.

I see two possibilities. Either Category 5 is somehow the only remaining scum, or you're on a team with him. While the latter is more likely, Cat5 is still a common factor, which is why my vote remains on him and I want him lynched first.  I cannot rationalize any other scenario in my head. 

I'm not going "no u." I'm looking at the facts and going from there. I did the calculations, I did the digging, I presented the case first. If anything, it's you and Cat5 going "no u."

I really hope we get more people's input, though. I don't want Town to lose due to how easy it seems to be to put a target on my back.

[OrangeP47]

Sorry, back for just a moment... but this is really bugging me.

You do realize, the guy JC said that quote to in the meme was right.... the NSF was right.  Just cause that lieutenant couldn't convince you right then HE WAS RIGHT.

Anywho, I'll be back with actual points later.

[Killing_You]

17 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Sorry, back for just a moment... but this is really bugging me.

You do realize, the guy JC said that quote to in the meme was right.... the NSF was right.  Just cause that lieutenant couldn't convince you right then HE WAS RIGHT.

Anywho, I'll be back with actual points later.

*shrug* Never played the game. I'm just aware of the meme.

[ChopBam]

@Killing_You You're saying you would flip scum if killed a second time? And you'd have no access to a scum doc if killed a first time?

[OrangeP47]

If KY was converted, it probably would have been N2. That's a decent time for a lone scum to hold a double kill for, and we don't have an account of what Cat 5 did then either, and conversion (because of kills) happens at the end so it would fool chop.

Again, there's also the chance he's just a godfather.

It's true I can't back these up with anything, but you have to factor in how all actors here are acting.  *the strength of my evidence is literally just as strong as KY's* To pretend otherwise is disingenuous.  Cat 5 is pretty solid, but this linking to me is some serious big brain play that's probably just an attempt to spoil the vote at the last second.  There's also the fact that KY hasn't been very forthcoming, as evident here by his "second life" if that's true. What else might he be hiding. If he's scum, either through conversion or godfather, he might be the more dangerous scum.

[ChopBam]

If KY's alignment already changed, my N1 read is completely useless.

[FRAYDO]

Killing_You has presented a meticulous and strong case. However, Orange suggests a Godfather or alignment conversion.

Category 5 Hurricane has presented his case, and with color! "You're taking all of my posts out of context and inserting the context you need to make it fit."

OrangeP47, "you're all just going to be against me no matter what I do"

WHO GETS THE LYNCH TODAY

[Killing_You]

2 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

@Killing_You You're saying you would flip scum if killed a second time? And you'd have no access to a scum doc if killed a first time?

...No. I only come back once. I haven't been killed yet, and it's not D1 or N1 anymore, so if I were to die at this stage, I'd come back as scum. How did you get the idea of a third life?

[OrangeP47]

Just now, ChopBam said:

If KY's alignment already changed, my N1 read is completely useless.

Oh, you copped him N1? I thought N2. Even less ambiguity with missing a possible conversion then, as I had been speculating if it was the same night your read would come before the change and thus you'd still see neutral, but if it was N1, then I guess no questions.

[FRAYDO]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Oh, you copped him N1?

And there goes that argument.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, FRAYDO said:

And there goes that argument.

It makes my argument stronger, actually.

[ChopBam]

2 minutes ago, Killing_You said:

...No. I only come back once. I haven't been killed yet, and it's not D1 or N1 anymore, so if I were to die at this stage, I'd come back as scum. How did you get the idea of a third life?

..huh? I said nothing of a third life. Just dying a second time.

[ChopBam]

So basically if we lynch Killing You he's safe to lynch again. Except that we'll be losing time and possibly town members during the night.

Scum needing to control 50% of the vote actually means we may have longer than I thought, however.

[FRAYDO]

4 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

It makes my argument stronger, actually.

Does it? Please, tell the argument again.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, FRAYDO said:

Does it? Please, tell the argument again.

Simply put, Chopbam copped him BEFORE he turned mafia. I'm saying KY turned Mafia at the END of N2. Chopbam copped him N1.

[ChopBam]

I'm imagining this awkward scenario where KY dies and then suddenly is teamed up with players he's been fighting and arguing against all day. Trying to backpedal and argue against his previous arguments. It might be fun to see, actually. Orrr it'll be like everyone just sitting around the table in silence for 48 hours.

[OrangeP47]

Hell, even if he turned at the END of N1, order of operations mean Chop would get a neutral result instead of mafia. That's basic mafia mechanics.

[OrangeP47]

Literally no matter when KY was converted Chop would have missed it with a N1 cop...

[ChopBam]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Literally no matter when KY was converted Chop would have missed it with a N1 cop...

Whom do you propose KY is teamed up with?

[OrangeP47]

Just now, ChopBam said:

Whom do you propose KY is teamed up with?

Cat 5, without a doubt.