Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said: Shhh, let him answer. His defense would be based on a meta analysis on how much thought he put into considering his vote before he placed it. Which given the circumstances I don't think was that much no matter what alignment he has. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Shade939 said: His defense would be based on a meta analysis on how much thought he put into considering his vote before he placed it. Which given the circumstances I don't think was that much no matter what alignment he has. Shade if you don't shut up I'm going to shoot you even though I think you're town. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said: Shade if you don't shut up I'm going to shoot you even though I think you're town. Mood. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Now I understand why Shade is so intent on solving this statistically. It's because he's bad at solving it the normal way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I have beaten Bloodstained so I may or may not be more active now btw. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, OrangeP47 said: Where would you have gone if he did or did not follow through? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 NIKOLA, ANSWER THE QUESTION! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 See, here's what I'm thinking. And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats! Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think: Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily. I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*. A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, OrangeP47 said: See, here's what I'm thinking. And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats! Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think: Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily. I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*. A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD. I find it more likely you're Scum pushing for a lynch over no lynch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Shade939 said: I find it more likely you're Scum pushing for a lynch over no lynch. Shade, just because you're bad at scum hunting doesn't mean everyone is. I was killed last game because I was a good scum hunter, remember, that's why you didn't get to see any of it, so I guess I can't fault you for not being able to bask in my glory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Let me put it this way: If it was a trap, I would've ended up swallowing the bait without thinking. I just kinda... did it. Don't think I'm completely oblivious, though. I did notice that iLikeToSnipe tried to place suspicion on Cat5 but not going for a vote, trying not to draw too much attention to himself. Also, I've read Cat5's posts, and iLTS is way off the mark. It feels a bit too Allied for my taste. ##vote iLikeToSnipe 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Killing_You said: Let me put it this way: If it was a trap, I would've ended up swallowing the bait without thinking. I just kinda... did it. Don't think I'm completely oblivious, though. I did notice that iLikeToSnipe tried to place suspicion on Cat5 but not going for a vote, trying not to draw too much attention to himself. Also, I've read Cat5's posts, and iLTS is way off the mark. It feels a bit too Allied for my taste. ##vote iLikeToSnipe Hmmmm, could you be a bit more specific? I'll reread, but to be fair finding anything on this forum is a bit hard, and I'm assuming since this is a case you're presenting you have the "evidence" handy and know where it is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Actually I guess ILTS has posted very little, so it wasn't that hard... yeah, talking about one person being scummy, but voting elsewhere is a classic scumtell... I've said this before in other games... not sure how nolynch factors into that equation though to be fair the saying usually goes with another person, but then again, we're a bit unique here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said: See, here's what I'm thinking. And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats! Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think: Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily. I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*. A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD. What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Retaliation said: What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript? I'm going to say something I said during champs this season: You are both more and less clever than you think you are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Retaliation said: What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript? Who's actually a psychic giant squid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said: I'm going to say something I said during champs this season: You are both more and less clever than you think you are. The theme for my posts this game is "What would Mojo do?" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said: Hmmmm, could you be a bit more specific? I'll reread, but to be fair finding anything on this forum is a bit hard, and I'm assuming since this is a case you're presenting you have the "evidence" handy and know where it is. Sure. 18 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said: Trying to keep up with everything, but I really don't like this. People who miss aren't "effectively cleared" because a town role has a very high chance to miss. There is certainly the statistical argument that they are more likely to be that role, but as we saw last game people can still hit or miss when they're more likely to have the other result. Treating it more than just the percent chance likelihood and wandering into the "confirmed town" territory was wrong then and it's wrong now. Anyone who misses is more likely to be a conscript, but we're missing another piece of the puzzle. That's the piece mafia has, because they know everybody's alignment already. The only side that gets any close to confirmed is mafia, it gives them a better picture as to who they should try night killing. Conscripts shooting everyone willy-nilly has a higher chance at killing town than mafia, gives mafia an advantage at finding power roles, and eliminates future kill attempts that could be used against revealed mafia. I'm always sus of Shade, so this doesn't scum read to me for him. Cat5 says he's neutral on it, but his words seem otherwise. His posts about are only about how "powerful" it could be to town while discussing none of the disadvantages. Scum reading Cat5, but not enough to vote on D1. I'm in favor of a nolynch today. ##vote nolynch Here, Snipe tries to claim that Cat5 only argued how the numbers game Shade's playing is good for Town, and accuses him of leaving out the downsides. 19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: This is why on an individual level, I don't think Shade firing was so bad for us. But if we start mass shooting, I'm sure more than Conscripts will fire, and then everything will be muddled. 19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Sure, but again it's barely better than a coinflip to get a miss result. Conscripts can get any result, so even if a result appears that isn't a miss, you can't be sure why. Scum could use this to get free shots. 19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Town power roles might want to hide as a conscript as well. 19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: For example, Retaliations stuck result doesn't say a whole lot. Two roles were eliminated as possibilities, but his chance of being scum only increased from 25% to 33%. Tells us next to nothing, though the individual chances of Retal being a town power role might be of interest to them. These posts, on the same page, preceding iLikeToSnipe, show otherwise. The summary is that "from Shade perspective it makes sense, but from Town perspective it tells us nothing." ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 minutes ago, Retaliation said: What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript? 3 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Who's actually a psychic giant squid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 How am I still confusing KY and Shade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Retaliation said: How am I still confusing KY and Shade. I mean, same. I was almost convinced Shade had solid reasoning for once. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 ##Vote ILikeToSnipe To be frank, no, I'm really not inclined to ignore what seems to be iLTS's scum meta. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I mean, it does seem like the better case now, and while my case may have blown up, I guess technically I'm getting what I wanted. It'd be nice if more people were here to make cases, but I'll sign onto this if nothing better comes along. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 The nice thing about all the shooting last game was that it gave us something to talk about D1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Retaliation said: The nice thing about all the shooting last game was that it gave us something to talk about D1. I mean it may not have been dramatic but it's not as if we've been completely static. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I updated the CVC does it look right to everyone? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I should probably take my vote off the mojoman. ##vote no lynch 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wait didn't realize we were tied between snipe and no lynch. ##unvote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 On 1/1/2021 at 6:09 PM, Shade939 said: Pick a player for me to shoot Category 5. Maybe they'll live, maybe they'll die. On 1/1/2021 at 6:27 PM, Shade939 said: ##Shoot Category 5 Hurricane Not particularly a fan of your responses to me shooting someone with my day kill. Rereading the thread, I'm not too sure why people are town-reading Shade. Asking Cat5 to select a target, not being happy with the unreasonable request, and then proceeding to shoot at Cat5. On 1/1/2021 at 6:36 PM, Shade939 said: Basically, by using my day kill and missing, I'm claiming I'm a Conscript. Which it's a bit early to be claiming vanilla Town player for my taste. In any case, everyone go use your abilities on someone else now. A D1 vanilla Town claim is just a tad sus. Given the lethality of the roles ingame, Shade is very lucky to have gotten a Missed result. I think he could have gotten away with the Cat5 kill given their interaction and we would not have lynched him for it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retaliation Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 It's because he's talking like a stubborn madman which is how he usually plays as town. Someone remind me how Shade plays as scum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Retaliation said: It's because he's talking like a stubborn madman which is how he usually plays as town. Someone remind me how Shade plays as scum. He's a lot more conscious of what people think of him as scum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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