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[GAME OVER] Apocalypse Rising Mafia I


Jeod
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3 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Shhh, let him answer.

His defense would be based on a meta analysis on how much thought he put into considering his vote before he placed it. Which given the circumstances I don't think was that much no matter what alignment he has.

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2 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

His defense would be based on a meta analysis on how much thought he put into considering his vote before he placed it. Which given the circumstances I don't think was that much no matter what alignment he has.

Shade if you don't shut up I'm going to shoot you even though I think you're town.

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See, here's what I'm thinking.  And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats!  Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think:  Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily.  I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate.

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*.  A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD.  :colbert:

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Just now, OrangeP47 said:

See, here's what I'm thinking.  And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats!  Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think:  Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily.  I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate.

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*.  A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD.  :colbert:

I find it more likely you're Scum pushing for a lynch over no lynch.

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Just now, Shade939 said:

I find it more likely you're Scum pushing for a lynch over no lynch.

Shade, just because you're bad at scum hunting doesn't mean everyone is.  I was killed last game because I was a good scum hunter, remember, that's why you didn't get to see any of it, so I guess I can't fault you for not being able to bask in my glory.

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Let me put it this way: If it was a trap, I would've ended up swallowing the bait without thinking. I just kinda... did it.

Don't think I'm completely oblivious, though. I did notice that iLikeToSnipe tried to place suspicion on Cat5 but not going for a vote, trying not to draw too much attention to himself. Also, I've read Cat5's posts, and iLTS is way off the mark. It feels a bit too Allied for my taste.

##vote iLikeToSnipe

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1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

Let me put it this way: If it was a trap, I would've ended up swallowing the bait without thinking. I just kinda... did it.

Don't think I'm completely oblivious, though. I did notice that iLikeToSnipe tried to place suspicion on Cat5 but not going for a vote, trying not to draw too much attention to himself. Also, I've read Cat5's posts, and iLTS is way off the mark. It feels a bit too Allied for my taste.

##vote iLikeToSnipe

Hmmmm, could you be a bit more specific?  I'll reread, but to be fair finding anything on this forum is a bit hard, and I'm assuming since this is a case you're presenting you have the "evidence" handy and know where it is.

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Actually I guess ILTS has posted very little, so it wasn't that hard... yeah, talking about one person being scummy, but voting elsewhere is a classic scumtell... I've said this before in other games... not sure how nolynch factors into that equation though to be fair the saying usually goes with another person, but then again, we're a bit unique here.

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10 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

See, here's what I'm thinking.  And yes Shade, it's D1, so this is all very tenuous, but it's nice to at least have SOME theory, and hey, guess what, it incorporates your stats!  Granted, I will concede I can see why you lot might still want to no lynch and this isn't a strong case so I'm not gonna push this hard, but here's what I think:  Retal could be the spy, and KY's vote was an uncoordinated attempt to distance, pulled off clumsily.  I know it was hyped up that scum were a well oiled machine last game (though they lost, and fell apart in the end), but that's not the norm these games, especially right out of the gate.

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is at least *a discussion point*.  A shame it comes with only 2 1/2 hours to go until EoD.  :colbert:

What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript?

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1 minute ago, Retaliation said:

What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript?

I'm going to say something I said during champs this season:  You are both more and less clever than you think you are.

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4 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Hmmmm, could you be a bit more specific?  I'll reread, but to be fair finding anything on this forum is a bit hard, and I'm assuming since this is a case you're presenting you have the "evidence" handy and know where it is.

Sure.

18 hours ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Trying to keep up with everything, but I really don't like this. People who miss aren't "effectively cleared" because a town role has a very high chance to miss. There is certainly the statistical argument that they are more likely to be that role, but as we saw last game people can still hit or miss when they're more likely to have the other result. Treating it more than just the percent chance likelihood and wandering into the "confirmed town" territory was wrong then and it's wrong now.

Anyone who misses is more likely to be a conscript, but we're missing another piece of the puzzle. That's the piece mafia has, because they know everybody's alignment already. The only side that gets any close to confirmed is mafia, it gives them a better picture as to who they should try night killing.

Conscripts shooting everyone willy-nilly has a higher chance at killing town than mafia, gives mafia an advantage at finding power roles, and eliminates future kill attempts that could be used against revealed mafia. I'm always sus of Shade, so this doesn't scum read to me for him. Cat5 says he's neutral on it, but his words seem otherwise. His posts about are only about how "powerful" it could be to town while discussing none of the disadvantages.

Scum reading Cat5, but not enough to vote on D1. I'm in favor of a nolynch today.

##vote nolynch

Here, Snipe tries to claim that Cat5 only argued how the numbers game Shade's playing is good for Town, and accuses him of leaving out the downsides.

19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

This is why on an individual level, I don't think Shade firing was so bad for us. But if we start mass shooting, I'm sure more than Conscripts will fire, and then everything will be muddled.

 

19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Sure, but again it's barely better than a coinflip to get a miss result. Conscripts can get any result, so even if a result appears that isn't a miss, you can't be sure why. Scum could use this to get free shots.

 

19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Town power roles might want to hide as a conscript as well.

 

19 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

For example, Retaliations stuck result doesn't say a whole lot. Two roles were eliminated as possibilities, but his chance of being scum only increased from 25% to 33%. Tells us next to nothing, though the individual chances of Retal being a town power role might be of interest to them.

These posts, on the same page, preceding iLikeToSnipe, show otherwise. The summary is that "from Shade perspective it makes sense, but from Town perspective it tells us nothing."

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

5 minutes ago, Retaliation said:

What if retaliation is they spy pretending to be the radar tower pretending to be a conscript?

 

3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Who's actually a psychic giant squid

3b5.jpg

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I mean, it does seem like the better case now, and while my case may have blown up, I guess technically I'm getting what I wanted.  It'd be nice if more people were here to make cases, but I'll sign onto this if nothing better comes along.

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On 1/1/2021 at 6:09 PM, Shade939 said:

Pick a player for me to shoot Category 5. Maybe they'll live, maybe they'll die.

 

On 1/1/2021 at 6:27 PM, Shade939 said:

##Shoot Category 5 Hurricane

Not particularly a fan of your responses to me shooting someone with my day kill.

Rereading the thread, I'm not too sure why people are town-reading Shade. Asking Cat5 to select a target, not being happy with the unreasonable request, and then proceeding to shoot at Cat5.

On 1/1/2021 at 6:36 PM, Shade939 said:

Basically, by using my day kill and missing, I'm claiming I'm a Conscript.

Which it's a bit early to be claiming vanilla Town player for my taste.

In any case, everyone go use your abilities on someone else now.

A D1 vanilla Town claim is just a tad sus. Given the lethality of the roles ingame, Shade is very lucky to have gotten a Missed result. I think he could have gotten away with the Cat5 kill given their interaction and we would not have lynched him for it.

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