Category 5 Hurricane Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Right, I'm half way curious to hear this, so @OrangeP47, do some wagonomics and analysis the votes so far. PLAYER VOTE Killing_You Retaliation FRAYDO Category 5 Hurricane Mojoman Anon_Kat iLikeToSnipe Anon_Kat Mojoman OrangeP47 Shade939 Retaliation Mojoman Chopbam Killing_You TheIrishMan Voe OrangeP47 LEADER I can tell you what I think about that, but I'll wait for Orange's answer since you pinged him. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said: Oh, I forgot. ##unvote 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Right, I'm half way curious to hear this, so @OrangeP47, do some wagonomics and analysis the votes so far. PLAYER VOTE Killing_You Retaliation FRAYDO Category 5 Hurricane Mojoman Anon_Kat iLikeToSnipe Anon_Kat Mojoman OrangeP47 Shade939 Retaliation Mojoman Chopbam Killing_You TheIrishMan Voe OrangeP47 LEADER It's a bit early for "true" wagonomics, though I have been thinking about it. For now just think about people who appear to be opportunistic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeod Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 hours to hammer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Actually I'm kinda on the fence about it. I don't think I would put up a fight about it either way. While it's true that a miss result strongly suggests a Conscript role, by contrast any result other than miss doesn't say a whole lot. And the chances of getting a miss as a Conscript is still only 56%. Having 2 or 3 Conscripts effectively cleared though, could be powerful. That could be a strong town core and could flip Mafia into wanting to kill the clears rather than the power roles. I hadn't considered that last point, I suppose, but I still don't think it's great exposing power roles or provoking a confrontation. The deciding factor for me, I think, is that if push comes to shove, scum will likely fire first, and thus have the advantage in the end. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wagonomics by default don't mean much in a no-early-hammer game, because individual votes during the day don't matter. However, I would say the current scatter of votes might suggest that none of the people voted are scum, albiet a very weak signal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said: Wagonomics by default don't mean much in a no-early-hammer game, because individual votes during the day don't matter. However, I would say the current scatter of votes might suggest that none of the people voted are scum, albiet a very weak signal. The argument I usually make when making wagonomics arguments is that the first person on a train isn't the scum, it's the 2nd/3rd voter who's trying to make a mislynch gain steam. (Adjusted for our gamesizes). However, the wider point here, is the look for people being opportunistic, or going after "low hanging fruit/LHF". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I think that is true during majority-hammer games, but really only the last vote a player makes during the day matters. Can't really do strong analysis during the day because any current votes are meaningless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said: I think that is true during majority-hammer games, but really only the last vote a player makes during the day matters. Can't really do strong analysis during the day because any current votes are meaningless. Eh, I think it's valid for either, though, if anything, I'd say it's easier to pick up on in larger games rather, if you want to critique it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said: It's a bit early for "true" wagonomics, though I have been thinking about it. For now just think about people who appear to be opportunistic. Which would implicate what player at the moment based on their vote then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anon_Kat Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I'm am going to bed irl 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Anon_Kat said: I'm am going to bed irl ##TellBedtimeStory Anon_Kat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Shade939 said: Which would implicate what player at the moment based on their vote then? Honestly there's a few people I'm sus at, for various reasons, but for these specific reasons, I don't particularly care for KY's aggressive stance towards Retal, even if he's backed off now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, FRAYDO said: ##TellBedtimeStory Anon_Kat Why did nobody ever do this for me, the countless times I announced in the thread I was going to bed? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeod Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Why did nobody ever do this for me, the countless times I announced in the thread I was going to bed? Because you’re an adult. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Why did nobody ever do this for me, the countless times I announced in the thread I was going to bed? Obviously because you're not in school. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Honestly there's a few people I'm sus at, for various reasons, but for these specific reasons, I don't particularly care for KY's aggressive stance towards Retal, even if he's backed off now. What I find particularly odd is your lack of suspicion towards Voe's vote for you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Why did nobody ever do this for me, the countless times I announced in the thread I was going to bed? Just now, Jeod said: Because you’re an adult. Jeod confirmed for mind-reader. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Jeod said: Because you’re an adult. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voe Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, FRAYDO said: Jeod confirmed for mind-reader. Jeod has been Yuri all along, playing us against one another! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeod Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Anon_Kat said: I'm am going to bed irl It’s the weekend. Saturday night in fact. And prime discussion time. Why hop off so soon? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Shade939 said: What I find particularly odd is your lack of suspicion towards Voe's vote for you? Voe's being an idiot but sometimes that's par for the course, I've yet to determine if that's scum or bad town. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voe Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Also 2021 posts. Bow to me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Jeod said: It’s the weekend. Saturday night in fact. And prime discussion time. Why hop off so soon? He's in CET IIRC where it's 1 AM. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said: He's in CET IIRC where it's 1 AM. Yeah his location is set to North Macedonia in his profile, it's 1 AM there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing_You Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Voe said: Also 2021 posts. Bow to me. no go suk a deek Spoiler no offense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Voe said: Also 2021 posts. Bow to me. We could help keep you at 2021 posts and shoot you dead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Actually I'm kinda on the fence about it. I don't think I would put up a fight about it either way. While it's true that a miss result strongly suggests a Conscript role, by contrast any result other than miss doesn't say a whole lot. And the chances of getting a miss as a Conscript is still only 56%. Having 2 or 3 Conscripts effectively cleared though, could be powerful. That could be a strong town core and could flip Mafia into wanting to kill the clears rather than the power roles. There's also the not negligible possibility of a conscript successfully killing someone, which has a higher chance of being town than scum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Mojoman said: There's also the not negligible possibility of a conscript successfully killing someone, which has a higher chance of being town than scum. Yeah how could we overlook this? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 And at this point I feel it would give scum some sort of advantage, let's say they shoot and do miss (gamble) they'd have more town credence. And let's say if the spy shoots, he can still gain town points because he went with the plan, even though he'll show stuck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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