Games [GAME OVER] Tiberian Sun: Reborn Mafia I

[Shade939]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

As flawed as I think your statistical approach is, town has more to gain from obsessing over it than mafia does. At least, I think so.

I'm pretty certain it'll be the best way to avoid a mislynch tomorrow.

[ChopBam]

20 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

It's a really odd thing to zero in on and try to start a push for...

Nobody is starting a push for anything. I found your statement odd and commented on it.

[Shade939]

@Killing_You

##Vote No Lynch

I'm going to get this started early, assuming Nod have a Day Kill or someone dies to a Day Kill from GDI Tomorrow, this should give us a 2 player cushion instead of that being the game right there.

We're at 4:11 I assume, so Nod need 3 kills to tie the vote, so I'm not risking any lycnh today without near certainty of its results. Day Kills might prolong a tied game, but that's assuming GDI really has any good day kills left to use and they land.

[Shade939]

1 hour ago, ChopBam said:

I would ask what threat you are posing to scum at this point, but for one you always think you're going to be night killed, and for two, scum did in fact kill orange.

 

17 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

Nobody is starting a push for anything. I found your statement odd and commented on it.

Honestly, sounds like you're just going out of your way to be antagonistic. Which is an actual Scum tactic that could be used.

[Jeod]

Aren’t you always antagonistic?

[TheIrishman]

I don't take his neutral claim seriously at all all anymore nor his point of how he shouldn't be killed and such. 

[Voe]

3 hours ago, TheIrishman said:

I don't take his neutral claim seriously at all all anymore nor his point of how he shouldn't be killed and such. 

 

On 12/1/2020 at 9:23 PM, Killing_You said:

There will not be any Neutral or Third Party in this game, as this is largely a "back-to-basics" game, as a refresher for everyone who feels like CYOR has been a tad overplayed, and for me who doesn't feel comfortable going crazy with a game setup, considering I wasn't too happy with my previous outings.

Yeah, I don't buy it either.

 

6 hours ago, Shade939 said:

@Killing_You

##Vote No Lynch

I'm going to get this started early, assuming Nod have a Day Kill or someone dies to a Day Kill from GDI Tomorrow, this should give us a 2 player cushion instead of that being the game right there.

We're at 4:11 I assume, so Nod need 3 kills to tie the vote, so I'm not risking any lycnh today without near certainty of its results. Day Kills might prolong a tied game, but that's assuming GDI really has any good day kills left to use and they land.

I too considered no lynch today, but this will leave us with no additional info for tomorrow. The only new lead we'll get day 3 is the night 2 nk target if it goes through, but even then scum has the initiative to manipulate the NK to cause even more confusion. We'd go into Day 3 with the same setup as Day 2, but 1 fewer player.

[Voe]

@Shade939i don't get your angle here. You'd like us to shoot each other to create content, but you're unwilling to proceed with a lynch when it's the last way for us to generate content.

Unless you just don't know whom to lynch, but in that case you don't need to find a fancy justification. I don't know whom to vote either. iLTS or you, probably.

[Jeod]

Day 2 is over in like 8 hours. I have time for it. I'll do some more reading and see if I can find us a good direction to take.

[Shade939]

3 hours ago, Voe said:

@Shade939i don't get your angle here. You'd like us to shoot each other to create content, but you're unwilling to proceed with a lynch when it's the last way for us to generate content.

Unless you just don't know whom to lynch, but in that case you don't need to find a fancy justification. I don't know whom to vote either. iLTS or you, probably.

It honestly shouldn't be that difficult to see. We're already in or are almost at a Mylo situation, the response to that is if a lynch isn't certain that you shouldn't lynch and throw the game.

[Shade939]

Day one and day two are largely interchangeable in this setup, if you have a day one lynch then if you don't get Mafia you simply switch over to a day two no lynch instead.

[iLikeToSnipe]

I havent' been able to do an in-depth analysis of everyone this game and I'm particularly busy today. So here's what I've got.

Jeod:
Seems to be making posts and reading when he can (and making jabs at Shade). I haven't paid enough attention to him to have any read at the moment.

ChopBam:
He's been making good posts and scum hunting like he's town. I'm getting a town read.

FRAYDO:
Very little content form him, especially for D2. Not getting a town read, but not getting a strong scum vibe either. Neutral/scum read.

Cat5:
He's had less activity and prodding other players than he usually does. Not seeing anything scummy about his posts, so neutral/town read from me.

Voe:
It has been a very long time since I've played with him and I'm try to rely less on meta than others do. He has contributed quality content to the game (ex. role chart anlaysis) and I haven't seen any obvious scum tells in his posts. Town read.

Retal:
He's making what mostly seem to be reactions, rather than doing scum hunting. The contributions he has made though don't seem scummy. Neutral read.

Shade:
I always scum read Shade with the way he plays. His argument over shooting people to check for the spy and then not being willing to do so himself strikes me as especially scummy. I'd be in support of a vote on him, but I believe there are other players who are more likely to be scum.

Irish:
I've already made my case, but I'll summarize it here. He's been taking potshots at other players and drastically changing his reads without any indication as to why. For example, first Jeod was a solid town read and then suddenly he's "suspecting Jeod less"? Where did that come from? Why? How? In what timespan did he believe Jeod was town, then believe he was scum, and then started suspecting him less? I get the feeling he has an agenda, which is a huge scum tell.

Anon:
Nowhere near enough activity to get a read. If we were in a position where we had to lynch and didn't have any strong candidates, I'd consider him just to remove him as an inactive variable.

Louis:
Seems to have a similar amount of content to when she was non-town (third party, mafia, etc). Also hasn't seemed to have been particularly helpful with her content. Scum read on her.

 

I haven't had a chance to look through their interactions, but just going off of my D2 reads I'd have a scum team of Shade, Irish, and Louis. I'm most strongly suspicious of Irish right now, so I'm keeping my vote on him. Shade is always scummy to me, so it could very well be somebody else (i.e. FRAYDO).

[Shade939]

@iLikeToSnipe, I'm putting too much effort into trying to get everyone else to play smart to be Nod, and stopping pointless conjectures that are just going to throw everything off like there being two cops...

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

@iLikeToSnipe, I'm putting too much effort into trying to get everyone else to play smart to be Nod, and stopping pointless conjectures that are just going to throw everything off like there being two cops...

Everyone is used to you being you. Doesn't mean I will ever let my guard down and trust you when you still push for stuff that doesn't help town. The whole angle on shots being stuck = being a spy is absolutely worthless without a lot more data. Even then, it still is worth less than a random lynch if EVERYONE had fired their shots. If everyone fires their shots, odds are a town member will be killed rather than a mafia member. Your entire line of reasoning here is much more likely to help mafia than town.

You ignore anything that doesn't support it and keep on pushing for it. Why?

[Shade939]

2 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Everyone is used to you being you. Doesn't mean I will ever let my guard down and trust you when you still push for stuff that doesn't help town. The whole angle on shots being stuck = being a spy is absolutely worthless without a lot more data. Even then, it still is worth less than a random lynch if EVERYONE had fired their shots. If everyone fires their shots, odds are a town member will be killed rather than a mafia member. Your entire line of reasoning here is much more likely to help mafia than town.

You ignore anything that doesn't support it and keep on pushing for it. Why?

Because the only one who doesn't want to use the in game mechanics to find the Spy are Nod....

[TheIrishman]

Do even read my posts? Or others who are able to understand them? The pro-scum and n00b-scum one completely summarized my meaning so I didn't explain it any further.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Because the only one who doesn't want to use the in game mechanics to find the Spy are Nod....

Or.... what if somebody who is town believes your logic is flawed? This isn't just a zero sum game Shade. You are not all knowing town and just because somebody disagrees with you doesn't make them scum. I actually took the time to write out a post explaining some of the math (right or wrong) behind why I thought differently than you. You haven't even tried to put to paper why you think your plan will work or is a good idea. It's just constantly talking about how the spy has a 100% stuck chance and none of the other variables and factors in play.

THAT is why I see you as scummy. You just decide on something you think is correct, don't listen to anyone who thinks otherwise, and keep on trucking along without providing any actual reasoning.

[iLikeToSnipe]

1 minute ago, TheIrishman said:

Do even read my posts? Or others who are able to understand them? The pro-scum and n00b-scum one completely summarized my meaning so I didn't explain it any further.

Do you even read my posts? I explained why I didn't buy your post in the first place and why I haven't bought any of your reasoning since. I've at least directly addressed what you've posted. I don't see you doing the same, just making more "assumptions" and statements that appear to be an unexplained, sudden change of how you read people.

[Shade939]

10 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

Or.... what if somebody who is town believes your logic is flawed? This isn't just a zero sum game Shade. You are not all knowing town and just because somebody disagrees with you doesn't make them scum. I actually took the time to write out a post explaining some of the math (right or wrong) behind why I thought differently than you. You haven't even tried to put to paper why you think your plan will work or is a good idea. It's just constantly talking about how the spy has a 100% stuck chance and none of the other variables and factors in play.

THAT is why I see you as scummy. You just decide on something you think is correct, don't listen to anyone who thinks otherwise, and keep on trucking along without providing any actual reasoning.

Then it's quite possible they're end up throwing the game...

[Shade939]

@iLikeToSnipe, if you want to actually understand my argument, then think about how the day phase can play out tomorrow.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

@iLikeToSnipe, if you want to actually understand my argument, then think about how the day phase can play out tomorrow.

By hunting scum and using day kills on reliably scummy reads before any scum could get their daykill off (which was one motivation for me shooting Mojo). The exact same thing we should be doing today. As I used math to show in the one post I made, your entire suggestion is flawed. You are more likely to hit town if you were to suspect a stuck shot of being from the spy. So, you still are making absolutely no sense to me.

[Shade939]

1 minute ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

By hunting scum and using day kills on reliably scummy reads before any scum could get their daykill off (which was one motivation for me shooting Mojo). The exact same thing we should be doing today. As I used math to show in the one post I made, your entire suggestion is flawed. You are more likely to hit town if you were to suspect a stuck shot of being from the spy. So, you still are making absolutely no sense to me.

You're not even trying if that' the extent of your analysis...

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

You're not even trying if that' the extent of your analysis...

I would be so tempted to just shoot you if I still had a shot. If you're town this game, I don't even know what to do in future games. Just completely tune out all of your posts? Pretend you don't exist? Vote for you D1 no matter what?

You're not even trying to discuss this.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I don't buy that there are 4 scum in this game. MYLO on Day 2? Ridiculous.

[Shade939]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I don't buy that there are 4 scum in this game. MYLO on Day 2? Ridiculous.

It's better to assume there's 4 scum than to think there aren't. Considering daykills, we could have 5 dead Town players before the lynch happens.

[Shade939]

17 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said:

I would be so tempted to just shoot you if I still had a shot. If you're town this game, I don't even know what to do in future games. Just completely tune out all of your posts? Pretend you don't exist? Vote for you D1 no matter what?

You're not even trying to discuss this.

Based on the information presented by the GM I know I'm right and this should be the optimal strategy to help GDI out. If GDI doesn't want to follow it, then the game should be over very shortly with a Nod victory, making my point for me.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Based on the information presented by the GM I know I'm right and this should be the optimal strategy to help GDI out. If GDI doesn't want to follow it, then the game should be over very shortly with a Nod victory, making my point for me.

You know what Shade, let me explain it this way.

Based on the information presented by the GM I know I'm right and this would be the optimal strategy to help Nod out. If GDI wants to follow it, then the game should be over very shortly with a Nod victory, making my point for me.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

It's better to assume there's 4 scum than to think there aren't. Considering daykills, we could have 5 dead Town players before the lynch happens.

It isn't better to assume a situation might be true when it wouldn't make sense for it to be true.

[Shade939]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

It isn't better to assume a situation might be true when it wouldn't make sense for it to be true.

Present your evidence then to the contrary.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Why, because your claimed situation that also doesn't have any supporting evidence requires evidence to be refuted?