Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 And part of the game is roles having a unique day kill. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Okay, thoughts on Shade: Pre-shot at him from Louis I was a bit sus on him because he was seeming to play both sides (legit, not like Jeod's misunderstanding with me). I even said as much when I said Louis' target choice wasn't that bad, but apparently I misread her reason for picking him. Since then he's been a combination of Shade being Shade and legitimately offended at being shot at. Both reactions are fine, tbh, and he's not really setting me off. To be fair, he could be legit offended someone took a shot at him as scum, but I think his reaction is at least mildly towny. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Anyone can claim any hit/jam numbers. With the exception of the Spy, any role can get any result. You can't definitively learn anything, other than eliminating people as being a Spy. That's also assuming Spy hasn't changed. What if they got changed so that they can select between a jam or a miss? 1 minute ago, Shade939 said: Or if they killed someone. Most players day kills will result in a miss. So the two outlying cases is when their weapon gets stuck or when they kill someone. I don't think you understand how to apply statistics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Or if they killed someone. Most players day kills will result in a miss. So the two outlying cases is when their weapon gets stuck or when they kill someone. Everyone has a 50/50 kill chance, either they kill someone or they don't 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, iLikeToSnipe said: That's also assuming Spy hasn't changed. What if they got changed so that they can select between a jam or a miss? I really doubt it, but it also doesn't really matter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hey Shade, we should play poker sometime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sure, everyone go ahead and ignore the fact that roles have a unique day kill that changes the chances of what result they get from using it. I'm certain ignoring role abilities and how they work is a good idea. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 What are you talking about? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Shade939 said: Sure, everyone go ahead and ignore the fact that roles have a unique day kill that changes the chances of what result they get from using it. I'm certain ignoring role abilities and how they work is a good idea. You'd have a much stronger point if a shoot action showed the percentages involved. Yes, a 25% chance is less likely to happen than 50%. But it can still happen and you have no way of actually knowing how unlikely some event was. The reality is that your line of thinking cannot reliably be used at all given how the game works. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said: You'd have a much stronger point if a shoot action showed the percentages involved. Yes, a 25% chance is less likely to happen than 50%. But it can still happen and you have no way of actually knowing how unlikely some event was. The reality is that your line of thinking cannot reliably be used at all given how the game works. I mean, 25% odds isn't even that bad, and I speak as a gambler. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, OrangeP47 said: I mean, 25% odds isn't even that bad, and I speak as a gambler. You mean 18.75% since it can get stuck first. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Shade939 said: You mean 18.75% since it can get stuck first. I mean it's still a lot better than a lot of the things you'd get in a casino. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said: I mean it's still a lot better than a lot of the things you'd get in a casino. How about 37.5 or 56.25 instead? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Odds are, if someone performs a day kill, it's a result of them having a higher chance for their day kill to kill someone... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 If you ignore that, then you're entirely limiting yourself to meta analysis, or direct claims. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Again, you're playing the numbers game way too hard. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Shade, you do realize my degree is literally 50% statistics, and I'm telling you this is stupid. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Odds are, if someone performs a day kill, it's a result of them having a higher chance for their day kill to kill someone... 2 minutes ago, Shade939 said: If you ignore that, then you're entirely limiting yourself to meta analysis, or direct claims. And what do you base this on? Genuinely curious here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Shade, you do realize my degree is literally 50% statistics, and I'm telling you this is stupid. Like this is a textbook case of what they told us the first week of class NOT to do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 You are perhaps a little too focused on trying to figure out which players are more likely to daykill. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Again, you're playing the numbers game way too hard. Please listen, Shade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, iLikeToSnipe said: You'd have a much stronger point if a shoot action showed the percentages involved. Might as well just quote me. We're repeating ourselves. 13 hours ago, ChopBam said: Oh, does KY announce the percentages when the action is taken? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: We're repeating ourselves. As is tradition with Shade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I mean, this is not the perfect axiom for this conversation, but I think it gets the point across: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Does anyone remember there ever being a Grenadier role in one of VERTi60's games? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Category 5 Hurricane said: Does anyone remember there ever being a Grenadier role in one of VERTi60's games? Someone said it was like the flamethrower, but tbh I only played one of those games so I'm not that familiar with it to know if it's true. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think we should bring the conversation back to the two unlisted roles. If I'm not mistaken there was a claimed Jump Jet and Disk Thrower? And the Disk Thrower (Mojoman) is hesitant to fire back because of a chance to self-kill? On 12/14/2020 at 6:00 PM, Mojoman said: Fine it we gonna role claim, I'm an unlisted role as well, the Disc Thrower. My day action is a grenade throw, 25% hit, 75 miss. I have no night action but a passive called Bounceback, where the grenade can bounce the next day and hit the target at the start of the next day phase and 25% chance to hit me. If I'm understanding the role claim correctly, then firing today for him would not be resolved until tomorrow. Am I correct to infer this? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Category 5 Hurricane Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, OrangeP47 said: Someone said it was like the flamethrower, but tbh I only played one of those games so I'm not that familiar with it to know if it's true. No, the flamethrower did not work like that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeP47 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, FRAYDO said: I think we should bring the conversation back to the two unlisted roles. If I'm not mistaken there was a claimed Jump Jet and Disk Thrower? And the Disk Thrower (Mojoman) is hesitant to fire back because of a chance to self-kill? If I'm understanding the role claim correctly, then firing today for him would not be resolved until tomorrow. Am I correct to infer this? I don't think that's why he's (claiming) to be hesistant, and if his hesitancy is for his stated reasons is another matter of debate. However, I'd read that claim as the kill gets resolved today, and if it's a miss, then tomorrow there's a chance to self-kill. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's honestly a ridiculous-sounding action. But I'm not really sure if Mojo's the sort to make it up, either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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