Games [GAME OVER] Tiberian Sun: Reborn Mafia I

[ChopBam]

7 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

you can figure out if someone is likely an Officer, Umagaon, or Riot Trooper based on if they managed to kill someone with their 75/75/50% kill chances

[ChopBam]

@Shade939 someone's kill hits or misses, how can you possibly deduce they were a riot trooper?

[Shade939]

Just now, ChopBam said:

@Shade939 someone's kill hits or misses, how can you possibly deduce they were a riot trooper?

Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman.

[ChopBam]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman.

Oh, does KY announce the percentages when the action is taken?

[Shade939]

@Killing_You, day kill can give three results correct?

Stuck, Miss or hit?

[ChopBam]

Just now, Shade939 said:

@Killing_You, day kill can give three results correct?

Stuck, Miss or hit?

Look at the day actions on the first page, man. You'll see those are the three results.

[ChopBam]

1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

Oh, does KY announce the percentages when the action is taken?

My point here is that no matter what the result is, you can't say for sure, or at all, who the character is because you don't know the percentages. You only know the result. And, it being a one-time action, yeah you have none others to compare it to. Not even if everyone else in the game fired their single shots, because it's all rolls of the dice.

[Shade939]

Just now, ChopBam said:

My point here is that no matter what the result is, you can't say for sure, or at all, who the character is because you don't know the percentages. You only know the result. And, it being a one-time action, yeah you have none others to compare it to. Not even if everyone else in the game fired their single shots, because it's all rolls of the dice.

What percentages do you have on your day kill?

[FRAYDO]

Just now, Shade939 said:

What percentages do you have on your day kill?

And there's the fish.

[Shade939]

Be default, I'd assume you percentages should match up with those listed on the first post of the thread?

[ChopBam]

3 minutes ago, FRAYDO said:

And there's the fish.

The fishing rod and bait, not the actual fish yet.

[Shade939]

1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

The fishing rod and bait, not the actual fish yet.

Unless the listed Nod roles aren't in game. The GDI power units are already going to have a hard enough time of using their abilities effectively, never mind if Nod can actually figure out exactly who they are so they can use their abilities to counteract anything they can do.

[ChopBam]

13 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman.

So they killed someone. Therefore according to you they are a riot trooper. Even though there are characters with an even higher success rate, and characters with lower but non-zero success rates.

[Shade939]

Just now, ChopBam said:

So they killed someone. Therefore according to you they are a riot trooper. Even though there are characters with an even higher success rate, and characters with lower but non-zero success rates.

No, they are likely a Riot Trooper, Umagon, or Officer. Any of which I wouldn't mind eliminating as a Nod player.

[ChopBam]

Just now, Shade939 said:

No, they are likely a Riot Trooper, Umagon, or Officer. Any of which I wouldn't mind eliminating as a Nod player.

You missed the toxin trooper. And everybody who still has a 25% chance to hit if their weapon doesn't get stuck.

[Mojoman]

I think Shade is saying it gives someone a better idea if they ended up hitting.  Obviously all 3 people who shot today could have had an only 25% miss chance, but it's unlikely. 

[Shade939]

Just now, ChopBam said:

You missed the toxin trooper. And everybody who still has a 25% chance to hit if their weapon doesn't get stuck.

So, that means out of 6 players that shot, one of them probably actually killed someone...

[Shade939]

Medic/Rifle man have a 18.75% chance of killing their target, therefore requiring all of them to target the same person to statistically kill them by getting over 100%.

[ChopBam]

2 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

So, that means out of 6 players that shot, one of them probably actually killed someone...

@Mojoman can you translate this one for me?

[iLikeToSnipe]

I do not understand Shade's logic at all. No result would prove a person's role.

[Shade939]

Just now, ChopBam said:

@Mojoman can you translate this one for me?

Read the followup post where I explained the probability for that.

[FRAYDO]

It's an attempt, but it's certainly not as cut-and-dry as you may want to think.

[Shade939]

Just now, FRAYDO said:

It's an attempt, but it's certainly not as cut-and-dry as you may want to think.

For day one it really is though...

[FRAYDO]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

For day one it really is though...

[ChopBam]

6 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Medic/Rifle man have a 18.75% chance of killing their target, therefore requiring all of them to target the same person to statistically kill them by getting over 100%.

Some of them will probably get stuck, and let's throw the mutant hijacker in that list as well. How is this discussion helpful?

[Shade939]

1 minute ago, ChopBam said:

Some of them will probably get stuck, and let's throw the mutant hijacker in that list as well. How is this discussion helpful?

Most likely everyone using there day kill will simply result in figuring out that the majority of players can't be Spies, and Nod figuring out who the Umagon and Cop would be.

[FRAYDO]

With all due respect, I think it's a fruitless discussion. Shade's conjectures only hold so much weight when you have to consider percentages and RNG.

[Mojoman]

16 minutes ago, ChopBam said:

@Mojoman can you translate this one for me?

 You got me.

[ChopBam]

6 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Most likely everyone using there day kill will simply result in figuring out that the majority of players can't be Spies, and Nod figuring out who the Umagon and Cop would be.

If the majority of players were spies, we'd have lost already.

[Mojoman]

I agree, with other factors we could add the day kill percentages on top to form an opinion. But it's all conjecture.