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[GAME OVER] Apocalypse Rising Mafia I


Jeod
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2 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Right, I'm half way curious to hear this, so @OrangeP47, do some wagonomics and analysis the votes so far.

PLAYER VOTE
Killing_You Retaliation
FRAYDO  
Category 5 Hurricane  
Mojoman Anon_Kat
iLikeToSnipe  
Anon_Kat Mojoman
OrangeP47  
Shade939  
Retaliation Mojoman
Chopbam Killing_You
TheIrishMan  
Voe OrangeP47
LEADER  

I can tell you what I think about that, but I'll wait for Orange's answer since you pinged him.

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3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Right, I'm half way curious to hear this, so @OrangeP47, do some wagonomics and analysis the votes so far.

PLAYER VOTE
Killing_You Retaliation
FRAYDO  
Category 5 Hurricane  
Mojoman Anon_Kat
iLikeToSnipe  
Anon_Kat Mojoman
OrangeP47  
Shade939  
Retaliation Mojoman
Chopbam Killing_You
TheIrishMan  
Voe OrangeP47
LEADER  

It's a bit early for "true" wagonomics, though I have been thinking about it.  For now just think about people who appear to be opportunistic.

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2 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Actually I'm kinda on the fence about it. I don't think I would put up a fight about it either way. While it's true that a miss result strongly suggests a Conscript role, by contrast any result other than miss doesn't say a whole lot. And the chances of getting a miss as a Conscript is still only 56%.

Having 2 or 3 Conscripts effectively cleared though, could be powerful. That could be a strong town core and could flip Mafia into wanting to kill the clears rather than the power roles.

I hadn't considered that last point, I suppose, but I still don't think it's great exposing power roles or provoking a confrontation.  The deciding factor for me, I think, is that if push comes to shove, scum will likely fire first, and thus have the advantage in the end.

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Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Wagonomics by default don't mean much in a no-early-hammer game, because individual votes during the day don't matter.

However, I would say the current scatter of votes might suggest that none of the people voted are scum, albiet a very weak signal.

The argument I usually make when making wagonomics arguments is that the first person on a train isn't the scum, it's the 2nd/3rd voter who's trying to make a mislynch gain steam. (Adjusted for our gamesizes).  However, the wider point here, is the look for people being opportunistic, or going after "low hanging fruit/LHF".

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Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

I think that is true during majority-hammer games, but really only the last vote a player makes during the day matters. Can't really do strong analysis during the day because any current votes are meaningless.

Eh, I think it's valid for either, though, if anything, I'd say it's easier to pick up on in larger games rather, if you want to critique it.

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10 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

It's a bit early for "true" wagonomics, though I have been thinking about it.  For now just think about people who appear to be opportunistic.

Which would implicate what player at the moment based on their vote then?

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Just now, Shade939 said:

Which would implicate what player at the moment based on their vote then?

Honestly there's a few people I'm sus at, for various reasons, but for these specific reasons, I don't particularly care for KY's aggressive stance towards Retal, even if he's backed off now.

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Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Honestly there's a few people I'm sus at, for various reasons, but for these specific reasons, I don't particularly care for KY's aggressive stance towards Retal, even if he's backed off now.

What I find particularly odd is your lack of suspicion towards Voe's vote for you?

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Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Why did nobody ever do this for me, the countless times I announced in the thread I was going to bed?

 

Just now, Jeod said:

Because you’re an adult.

Jeod confirmed for mind-reader.

2264307-red_alert_2_yuri________.jpg

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30 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Actually I'm kinda on the fence about it. I don't think I would put up a fight about it either way. While it's true that a miss result strongly suggests a Conscript role, by contrast any result other than miss doesn't say a whole lot. And the chances of getting a miss as a Conscript is still only 56%.

Having 2 or 3 Conscripts effectively cleared though, could be powerful. That could be a strong town core and could flip Mafia into wanting to kill the clears rather than the power roles.

There's also the not negligible possibility of a conscript successfully killing someone, which has a higher chance of being town than scum.

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And at this point I feel it would give scum some sort of advantage, let's say they shoot and do miss (gamble) they'd have more town credence. 

 

And let's say if the spy shoots, he can still gain town points because he went with the plan, even though he'll show stuck.

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