Games [Danubian Federation Victory] Ausgleich '37

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Yeah, I'm not sure nationality will be a good indicator, unless we find people that are from outside the Empire. If we find people from France, Britain, or Italy, for example, I think those should be considered a threat by default.

Don't forget Serbs  #CrisisOne

[Killing_You]

12 hours ago, TheIrishman said:

So my trap doesn't affect people at night. It marks whoever visited my target, dayblocks them and prevents them from voting the next day. I guess I'll just come out with it all. I didn't actually use my ability, there were 3 items in The Vault, the last one being a Medkit. I grabbed that one and didn't want to mention it because of obvious reasons, I thought I could use it to protect my target and use my Trap at the same time to paint Scum after they failed a NK. Otherwise my trap wouldn't be able to save them and they'd still die. Happy?

That's interesting, and I can see why you would want to keep quiet about it. However, I don't think this ability really clears you (as evidenced by the vote wagon on you), but I don't quite think it's enough to condemn you.

11 hours ago, Retaliation said:

Rolecop of some sort?

Yessir. I can see someone's abilities and items by checking them at night. 

44 minutes ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Well given that there were 4 choices in the reform, I think it would be safe to imagine that there are 4 factions. There wouldn't be a point for 4 options if one of them wouldn't be beneficial to anybody.

I'm not so sure, given that the options are essentially "Light/Heavy Status Quo," and "Light/Heavy Reform." I think it might be more likely that there's three: One that wants to maintain the status quo, one that wants to peacefully reform, and one that just wants to set the guns off. There's probably more nuance than that, though.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

5 minutes ago, Killing_You said:

I'm not so sure, given that the options are essentially "Light/Heavy Status Quo," and "Light/Heavy Reform." I think it might be more likely that there's three: One that wants to maintain the status quo, one that wants to peacefully reform, and one that just wants to set the guns off. There's probably more nuance than that, though.

Why would one faction have two options that achieves their goals? So that they can split their votes and make it less likely they get what they want?

[Shade939]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Why would one faction have two options that achieves their goals? So that they can split their votes and make it less likely they get what they want?

It's probably so their votes can overlap with the third party, since that should let them booth work towards their victory condition?

[Shade939]

Which is the rather obvious problem that's going to pop up as soon as either side takes a lead.

[Killing_You]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Why would one faction have two options that achieves their goals? So that they can split their votes and make it less likely they get what they want?

More likely to get the option they want without risking too much instability. Why would two factions have a similar goal, but one just wanted the diet caffeine-free version?

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Which is the rather obvious problem that's going to pop up as soon as either side takes a lead.

Which is why I want to eliminate the Indies, who are likely civil war aligned, first

[Shade939]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Which is why I want to eliminate the Indies, who are likely civil war aligned, first

Too bad the indies aren't the only one who would go for a radical vote though.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Too bad the indies aren't the only one who would go for a radical vote though.

They're the only ones who will go for a radical vote.... if everyone knows what's good for them 

[Shade939]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

They're the only ones who will go for a radical vote.... if everyone knows what's good for them 

Says the guy who started out with a evidence key allowing him to effectively kill players.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Here's my personal theory. We have 2-3 primary goals; goals like unify, split up, etc which will determine the winning group. Everybody has their own unique secondary goal to determine an overall "winner". That way we have to work together, but we're still competing.

I think we need to stop treating this like mafia and like politicians.

[Shade939]

On 7/15/2018 at 6:59 AM, Nodlied said:

- Pluralism: The idea to reform the Empire into a Danubian Monarchy in which the different states are all equal.
- Status Quo: The idea to retain the Dual Monarchy of Austria-Hungary in which the Austrians and Hungarians are equal above all others.
- Abolishment: The idea to abolish the Empire and divide it into multiple independent sovereign states.

Basically, the three groups are the following, of which Abolishment should be a minority and the equivalent mafia group for this game, but even if you eliminate them you still don't win this game...

[Shade939]

And, in all honesty, you can probably actually win the game based without taking them out either as long as your get to 100% on your political ideology and they can't stop you.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

More likely to get the option they want without risking too much instability. Why would two factions have a similar goal, but one just wanted the diet caffeine-free version?

Oh for the love of...

Look, we can analyze this easily. Who would want the passage for the reforms we voted on?

Radical Status Quo 

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Status Quo as a Primary and Civil War as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Austrian or Hungarian
• Any Status Quo/Peace player who thinks there will be Civil War anyway and wants to be better positioned for it.
• Any outside force that wants to cause a Civil War

Soft Status Quo

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Status Quo as a Primary and Reform as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Austrian or Hungarian
• Any Status Quo/Civil War player who doesn't want to risk the war.

Soft Pluralism

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Pluralism as a Primary and Reform as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Bohemian, Illyrian, or Galician
• Any Pluralism/Civil War player who doesn't want to risk the war.

Radical Pluralism

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Pluralism as a Primary and Civil War as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Bohemian, Illyrian, or Galician
• Any Pluralism/Peace player who thinks there will be Civil War anyway and wants to be better positioned for it.
• Any outside force that wants to cause a Civil War

So, for all the motivations, how many options do they have?
Status Quo - 2
Pluralism - 2

Reform - 2
Civil War - 2

Austrian - 2
Hungarian - 2
Bohemian - 2
Illyrian - 2
Galician - 2

We can ignore the nationality because I imagine nationality will line up perfectly with the desired reform.

So most if not all players will fall into one of these:
Status Quo/Reform
Status Quo/Civil War
Pluralism/Reform
Pluralism/Civil War

That's four factions. There were four options. Each faction will only have one obvious option, though they could go against their expected vote for reasons I already described.

There could be outside players like a Syndicalist Faction, and not knowing what their motivations would be, I can't pin down what they would be voting for. But, in the case of Syndicalists, I would expect them to be aiming for Civil War. Maybe a German player would be voting for Reform options and not care which reform it is.

 

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Oh for the love of...

Look, we can analyze this easily. Who would want the passage for the reforms we voted on?

Radical Status Quo 

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Status Quo as a Primary and Civil War as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Austrian or Hungarian
• Any Status Quo/Peace player who thinks there will be Civil War anyway and wants to be better positioned for it.
• Any outside force that wants to cause a Civil War

Soft Status Quo

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Status Quo as a Primary and Reform as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Austrian or Hungarian
• Any Status Quo/Civil War player who doesn't want to risk the war.

Soft Pluralism

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Pluralism as a Primary and Reform as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Bohemian, Illyrian, or Galician
• Any Pluralism/Civil War player who doesn't want to risk the war.

Radical Pluralism

• Would be wanted by anyone who has Pluralism as a Primary and Civil War as a secondary.
• Anyone who is Bohemian, Illyrian, or Galician
• Any Pluralism/Peace player who thinks there will be Civil War anyway and wants to be better positioned for it.
• Any outside force that wants to cause a Civil War

So, for all the motivations, how many options do they have?
Status Quo - 2
Pluralism - 2

Reform - 2
Civil War - 2

Austrian - 2
Hungarian - 2
Bohemian - 2
Illyrian - 2
Galician - 2

We can ignore the nationality because I imagine nationality will line up perfectly with the desired reform.

So most if not all players will fall into one of these:
Status Quo/Reform
Status Quo/Civil War
Pluralism/Reform
Pluralism/Civil War

That's four factions. There were four options. Each faction will only have one obvious option, though they could go against their expected vote for reasons I already described.

There could be outside players like a Syndicalist Faction, and not knowing what their motivations would be, I can't pin down what they would be voting for. But, in the case of Syndicalists, I would expect them to be aiming for Civil War. Maybe a German player would be voting for Reform options and not care which reform it is.

 

This is a good analysis, but we know there are those who want Independence too, not just Status Quo or Plurality.  Given they aren't on the reform axis provided on the CVC, I think we can assume they are civil war, though.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Actually, I've been meaning to ask, where are you getting this Independence line from?

[OrangeP47]

On 7/15/2018 at 6:59 AM, Nodlied said:

Known Objectives
Your objective is linked to your role’s vision of the Empire. There are three different possibilities, each of them linked with a secondary one.
1. Primary Goal: This is your role’s vision of the Empire. Achieving this goal will win you the game.
- Pluralism: The idea to reform the Empire into a Danubian Monarchy in which the different states are all equal.
- Status Quo: The idea to retain the Dual Monarchy of Austria-Hungary in which the Austrians and Hungarians are equal above all others.
- Abolishment: The idea to abolish the Empire and divide it into multiple independent sovereign states.

First post, I've quoted the section here, the very last bullet point.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Abolishment doesn't mean independence, though.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Oh wait, I see.

[Shade939]

I'm pretty certain you have to be independent Orange since you actually started out with an evidence key though.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

I was thinking that Abolishment doesn't mean the empire splits into independent states, but it does clearly say that, doesn't it? Nevermind...

[OrangeP47]

In my experience, when there's civil war, the most likely cause is Hungary wanting to go it's own way.  I think having a Hungary-Abolishment player would be clever design by Nodlied, as you'd think they'd want status quo, but flavor wise Hungary is very rebellious and discontent.  Of course, some of the lesser states within the Empire probably want it too.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Shade939 said:

I'm pretty certain you have to be independent Orange since you actually started out with an evidence key though.

That makes no sense.  Plus I'm Austrian.  Austrians are about the only people I wouldn't suspect of wanting abolishment, seeing as they are the most senior member of the Empire.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

33 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Says the guy who started out with a evidence key allowing him to effectively kill players.

You are getting really keyed up about this key. Why are you saying he would be able to kill players using it?

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

You are getting really keyed up about this key. Why are you saying he would be able to kill players using it?

I can't kill using it directly, but I could turn someone hostile (either rightfully so, or framing them), and then we could investigate them.  I vow to only use my power for good and build a case against those that deserve it, but I'll admit, you just kinda have to take my word for it.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

But you can only do one thing at a time with it, right?

[Jeod]

At this point I could be convinced to switch to a Shade investigation.

[Shade939]

Just now, Jeod said:

At this point I could be convinced to switch to a Shade investigation.

Because I actually understand how to play this game based on the rules and am actually bothering to explain them to everyone?

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

But you can only do one thing at a time with it, right?

Correct, I can only do one thing from the Evidence Base, and there's like 4-5 options.  The options are roughly divided into cop actions (like my checking Jeod's voting) and evidence actions, such as building a case or framing someone.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

So as long as you keep doing actions you can prove (like your report on Jeod) I see nothing to be concerned about.