Event [Complete] RA:APB-themed Mafia game II

[Voe]

##vote Isaac The Madd

 

First time playing and saying someones a third party?

 

You're being fed info by a veteran.

Call me out Killing You, I dare you.

##vote mojoman

I don't know, boi, KY is threatening town pretty legitimately, it doesn't take a mafia veteran to figure it out. I don't know any town role which explodes on death, do you?

Also, i was stalked tonight by a "something", not a "someone". Given that I voted on OWA day 1, and he "rolled a bit" in night 1, i assume it was him, the dog.

[Isaac The Madd]

Is it possible OWA is a town or civ dog?

 

Killing You could be a demo truck, if so the game might end if he dies, but I doubt Vertigo would allow that.

Anyways I won't be on for a big chunk of today.

[VERTi60]

##vote mojoman

[Vote Counted] Voe voted Mojoman to be lynched!

Time Left:

9 hours, 18 min, 42 sec

 

CVC:

Category 5 Hurricane voted nobody

Chaos_Knight voted nobody

Death_Kitty voted nobody

FRAYDO voted nobody

Isaac The Madd voted nobody

Killing You voted nobody

Mojoman voted Isaac The Madd

One Winged Angel voted nobody

Voe voted Mojoman

 

2/9 votes casted so far

2 voted players are at a tie (1 each)

[Killing_You]

Whoa whoa whoa, where did this talk of exploding come from? I just said my death would be bad, and I said that because it would leave us sitting with 2 dead townies with a possible 3rd townie dead overnight, leaving the scum to easily jump on whoever was left. Don't believe me? Go ahead and shoot me. When the bullets have no effect, you'll know that I'm telling the truth.

 

Anyways, thanks for keeping me on the spot Mojo. Clearly I took the bait when I shouldn't have. I no longer have reason to trust you.

 

##vote Mojoman

[Voe]

Whoa whoa whoa, where did this talk of exploding come from? I just said my death would be bad, and I said that because it would leave us sitting with 2 dead townies with a possible 3rd townie dead overnight, leaving the scum to easily jump on whoever was left. Don't believe me? Go ahead and shoot me. When the bullets have no effect, you'll know that I'm telling the truth.

 

Anyways, thanks for keeping me on the spot Mojo. Clearly I took the bait when I shouldn't have. I no longer have reason to trust you.

 

##vote Mojoman

##unvote

This is getting too silly for me to follow atm. I should have more time in the evening.

[VERTi60]

##vote Mojoman

[Vote Counted] Killing You voted Mojoman to be lynched!

##unvote

This is getting too silly for me to follow atm. I should have more time in the evening.

[Vote Cancel] Voe cancelled his/her vote on Mojoman!

[Voe]

#1 Oh look at this! A day 1 where nobody was lynched, yet we gained a lot of potentially useful information!

 

Naturally you've learned that I was not able to be lynched. What that means, you can't be certain, and I won't tell you more about it except that I picked this role specifically since I figured that being the winner last game (...sort of) would make me a quick target this game. Didn't think it would be used this fast...but whatever!

 

Then there's a bit more that we can be reasonably sure is true based on voting patterns.

FRAYDO did not pick to vote for either OWA or Chaos_Knight when he could easily have voted for one of them to save the other, and passed it off easily for any reason. It's a decent bet that FRAYDO is not on a scum team with OWA or Chaos_Knight

Chaos_Knight similarly did not vote for OWA or Death_Kitty to save himself. Unless all three are scum and only Chaos_Knight's vote was on town, it is unlikely Chaos_Knight is on a scum team with OWA or Death_Kitty. (That odd scenario might have some merit, though....)

Nodlied is not on a scum team with OWA, Chaos_Knight, Death_Kitty, or myself. He didn't vote at all and any vote with 2 minutes to go would have been justifiable and certainly save his mate(s).

 

These should all hold true as long as potential scum players do not have lynch protection. Or something stupid like inactive scum players. (Which was a problem last game, if I recall...)

 

My previous post-mortems of mafia voting patterns suggest that when a group of people are tied for a vote and nobody breaks it, it is because none of the people who received votes were scum. A scum team can usually break any tie if it needs to. It could be that a scum member was on the list and no other scum player came online to vote for anybody to help. However, given the specific voting pattern we have here, it doesn't seem like any vote was to save one person or another.

 

#2 My suspected scum team before the vote was Killing You, Chaos_Knight, and Nodlied (expecting a similar number of scum team to last game, which had the same number of players). I don't blame you for the counter-vote, Chaos. I sat there deliberating for a while before deciding on you instead of Nodlied. I suspected you because you said nothing of consequence, even though you were clearly around. I know you are a great player, so the fact that you didn't comment on Killing You's behavior at all made me think you were hoping people wouldn't notice. I'm less suspicious of you now, but only a bit. I also suspected Nodlied for the same reason as you, though he did at least have one comment about it and he hadn't replied to the answer Killing You gave his question. Given what happened after I returned to work, I wish I could have switched to Nodlied. Nodlied started the game with one of my favorite scum-tells of mass image posting. (Not a very reliable tell, mind you, however mass image posting fits the behavior of relaxed and experienced scum players who don't have much to worry about at the start of the game. Catalyst was the best example of this, in my opinion.) He may have also led Killing You to go after Voe as a "joke", or perhaps Voe's attractive personality did that on it's own. Furthermore, he soft-claimed as a unit for no reason at all. (Also a potential scum-tell.) Then when the game actually started, he turned into a tiny parrot who could say a lot of little lines that other people said but didn't follow up any of them with anything. He could have voted to essentially pick who to kill, and he himself had already laid out enough reason to vote for two people. To decide not to do so seems to me to be an indication of an unwillingness to make that decision and have a record for it and earn the label: Nodlied: The guy who picked the Day 1 town lynch and also risk the implications of that where people might claim he voted to save someone. Of course, if he was town and wanted to avoid that, he could also have voted for FRAYDO and just added to the vote roulette. After the failed lynch, his first concern was about what my role is, not alignment. Also used "INB4" which he might have to do right away if he planned to try to attack me now.

 

So, for people who read that text brick, (Yes, you, Chaos.) Thanks. For the rest: New targets! Killing You, Nodlied, TBA? Mojoman? Again? I don't fucking know.

#1

Good logic there, making a list of people and their votes as a means of predicting correlations. BUT:

• It's only true if players were taking votes they were, unable to change, in order they did. In essence, the third player to cast a vote there (fraydo?) could just as well be on the scum team with the first 2 targets (OWA, CK) as anyone else. Casting a vote on someone else can be a way of swaying people's attention, which is just as good an option as breaking the tie. It goes with any player afterward, as well. Additionally, one may argue that none of those votes matter at all in a logical argument of yours because they had a chance of changing that vote later on. Cat5, imagine you're scum, and town votes on your guy and on some other guy. Those are the only 2 votes cast. What do you do, jump in immediately with the second vote on the guy alternative to your buddy? It's silly. Especially if you cannot be sure of the eventual outcome of the vote, as it's so early. On the other hand, if you have a 5 man tie, and you notice one of your buddies is a suspect, what do you do? Be the one who decides on the lynch, inevitably lynching a townie? That would attract a ton of attention to both yourself, as well as guys who were thus saved.
• The tie break would be beneficial to scum only if they were in a losing position of the RNG. If there were 2 scum in a 5-man-tie, it's bad enough. 40% chance on a lottery to lose a member isn't what i'd go for. My theory would be there was 0 or max 1 scum in that tie. 20% is a way better deal.

I would focus on guys who weren't the objects of voting Day 1.

 

#2

end of break, i'll add more later

[Isaac The Madd]

Well that big chunk of the day was my morning.

 

First off Mojoman I have no veteran affiliates, the only information I have is from this topic.

 

Second off I was referencing last game.

 

Finally you were quick to lynch me, so I return the vote to you.

 

##Vote Mojoman

[Chaos_Knight]

Alright, it's case making time!

Sorta. Haven't done it in forever and some.

Anyway.

 

Cat5. He's apparently lynch-proof (yea, I know, I am being a cap here) which means he's likely a structure. Not only that but unlynchable scum in a game where "everyone misses" scenario is a possibility due to all shooting being done by a dice (and quite a low one at that to boot) seems extremely unlikely. Well, unless there's also someone who can kill reliably and often enough. I am looking at you, black "third party" mention in the day/night posts. So even if he's not town per see, he's most likely either neutral like some civilian house/inn/barn or TP. TP could be interesting to investigate but the same reasoning applies about unlynchable hostiles so...

 

Chaos. A case list would be incomplete without the author himself now, would it? As per usual I sat in read-only for the most of D1 waiting for something to actually work with. Somehow it wasn't that amusing this time. Maybe needed more people. Then Cat5 voted me close to the end of the day. I took it rather personally and voted back. I mean Cat5 knows me a bit too well to just blame it all on my semi-activity so I found it fishy. I was honestly expecting some sort of activity spike at least from others based on the very first actual debate brewing up but alas.

 

Death_Kitty. Is he even alive?

 

FRAYDO. For some reason he tried to wake up person above whith a vote less than 1h before the day end during the tie. Ok, I mentioned that before, I admit. In fact, indeed, what's up with the whole wake up theme? That's about it really. Feels like he's trying to be visibly active but not do any actual work to say. Or maybe he has posting restriction which makes him mention "wake up" all the time? Though that would seem far-fetched. Could you plz post a post without "wake up" in any form including quoting plz?

 

Isaac The Madd. A new player which makes him a wildcard tbh. It's hard to tell if he's just learning or being scummy. Then again, jumping on KY based on some vague line looked strange.

 

Killing You. Eager indeed. Also new and thus a wildcard on his own. Also soft roleclaim of "protecting himself" last night when slightly nudged by Voe. Now that doesn't feel right. Or just a newbie mistake.

 

Mojoman. Not sure what he meant by "feeding info by a veteran" when talking about Isaac vs KY since both of them are playing for the 1st time. Or did he mean Cat5's wall'o'logic?

 

OWA. Behaves and talks... or rather doesn't talk... like a dog. Is probably one.

 

Voe. Giving the usual show of "I am smart" and pushes people around. As usual. Wait until he switches to the "You are all retarded" part. That's the real fun.

Though the fact that he survived D1 and N1 kinda casts a shadow on him if mafia taught me anything.

 

 

Now about the vote tie. Cat5's analysis is fine and all, but we also have to keep in mind that indeed any tie-breaker ending up with a town lynch would've been pretty suspicious. Even town players would've likely took the lottery over bringing close unwanted attention towards themselves should their choice have been a mistake. So sadly that tie vote gives us extremely little.

[Voe]

#2

end of break, i'll add more later

 

#2

I like your Nodlied + Killing You analysis more. Now that we know that Nodlied is town, all of it goes null.

 

I am rather sure KY is town. He did say he'll keep a closer look on Nodlied (I was curious what that could possibly mean) until he claimed he was only protecting himself (which leads to a generalised rifle role). If i know Vertigo to a degree i think i do, he doesn't rick-roll the roles, but chooses them accordingly. I'm more and more convinced KY is neither mafia, nor third party. Genuine rifle for a new player, I presume.

 

Oh and i would treat everything he says with a grain of salt, for that specific reason.

Voe. Giving the usual show of "I am smart" and pushes people around. As usual. Wait until he switches to the "You are all retarded" part. That's the real fun.

Though the fact that he survived D1 and N1 kinda casts a shadow on him if mafia taught me anything.

Right. More content next time please.

aaand lastly

People who haven't participated in Day 1 tie:

• FRAYDO
• Isaac The Madd
• Killing You
• Mojoman
• Nodlied
• Voe

People who are (or probably are) town:

• Killing_You I believe town
• Nodlied confirmed town

This leaves us with 3 names I'm currently most curious about:

• FRAYDO
• Isaac The Madd
• Mojoman

[Killing_You]

I don't think Isaac and Mojo are both town. Mojo was pretty quick to go after Isaac on very little evidence and also taunted me in the same breath. Isaac then returned fire, which I imagine would not happen if he was fellow scum.

 

So either Mojo is rather aggressive scum or we're being played for fools.

[VERTi60]

##Vote Mojoman

[Vote Counted] Isaac The Madd voted Mojoman to be lynched!

 

Time Left:

4 hours, 12 min, 57 sec

 

CVC:

Category 5 Hurricane voted nobody

Chaos_Knight voted nobody

Death_Kitty voted nobody

FRAYDO voted nobody

Isaac The Madd voted Mojoman

Killing You voted Mojoman

Mojoman voted Isaac The Madd

One Winged Angel voted nobody

Voe voted nobody

 

3/9 votes casted so far

Mojoman has the most votes - 2

[Voe]

If my theory is right, at least 1 of these 3 is scum. If we're lucky, possibly even 2.

 

##vote isaac the madd

 

No difference to me. Let the gods decide.

[VERTi60]

##vote isaac the madd

[Vote Counted] Voe voted Isaac The Madd to be lynched!

Time Left:

4 hours, 4 min, 17 sec

 

CVC:

Category 5 Hurricane voted nobody

Chaos_Knight voted nobody

Death_Kitty voted nobody

FRAYDO voted nobody

Isaac The Madd voted Mojoman

Killing You voted Mojoman

Mojoman voted Isaac The Madd

One Winged Angel voted nobody

Voe voted Isaac The Madd

 

4/9 votes casted so far

2 voted players are at a tie (2 each)

[Killing_You]

Tieing the vote when one of the suspects already has two votes on his/her head? Weird.

[Voe]

Tieing the vote when one of the suspects already has two votes on his/her head? Weird.

Not any weirder than pushiong a hammer and then being blamed for it if shit happens.

[Killing_You]

Well that's fair. Although I don't think we're close enough to a hammer to worry about it.

[Chaos_Knight]

Right. More content next time please.

Eh, I work with what I have.

It's pretty hard to analyze you with that aggressive and honestly annoying manner of yours.

 

But right now I would really love to hear something from FRAYDO first before casting my vote.

[Isaac The Madd]

I am still confused at how Lynching Killing you would make us lose him, if he is town.

[Killing_You]

As I said before, lynching me would leave us with two dead townies and all scummies unharmed. Then we'd probably lose a third townie, and the scum could pile up on the last townies no problem. Simple snowball effect. I'm not saying this again because I'm going to sound like a broken record before too long.

[Isaac The Madd]

Never mind, your wording just made it seem like you die upon lynching, which made me think you were and AP mine.

 

Edit: I edited it to fix the front bit to "never mind," please don't kill me.

Edited August 29, 2016 by Isaac The Madd

[FRAYDO]

@Chaos

No post restrictions.

 

Anyway, my attention currently is on Death_Kitty. He seemed especially eager to sign up once the game was announced, and yet no response, even with my vote placed on him. I'm suspicious that he may be playing the silent scum role, unless he really just isn't around.

[Nodlied]

USER WAS WARNED FOR THIS POST

Never mind, your wording just made it seem like you die upon lynching, which made me think you were and AP mine.

 

Edit: I edited it to fix the front bit to "never mind," please don't kill me.

Just a small back-seat moderation announcement here.

 

Editing your posts is not allowed in mafia games. Double posting, however, is.

 

USER WAS WARNED FOR THIS POST

Edited August 29, 2016 by Voe
No backseat moderating

[Killing_You]

Yeah, Death_Kitty's silence is... unnerving to say the least. I wonder if he's a designated scum assassin keeping quiet to keep the heat off of him. We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

[Chaos_Knight]

@Chaos

No post restrictions.

Good to see that.

As for going after Death Kitty, I don't think that we are at the point of going after inactive players. Come to think of it, you also only posted like 3 times, none of which contributed much..

Just saying that certain hypocricy isn't nice

[Einstein]

Random info tidbit:

 

Death_Kitty - Last active: 19:04 yesterday (-6:00 time).

[VERTi60]

Random info tidbit:

 

Death_Kitty - Last active: 19:04 yesterday (-6:00 time).

Just like editing posts rule (thx nodlied), being a internet spy detective is not really welcomed in mafia games

Plus you don't know if he's visiting as guest (thread is public).

[Voe]

 

USER WAS WARNED FOR THIS POST

Never mind, your wording just made it seem like you die upon lynching, which made me think you were and AP mine.

 

Edit: I edited it to fix the front bit to "never mind," please don't kill me.

Just a small back-seat moderation announcement here.

 

Editing your posts is not allowed in mafia games. Double posting, however, is.

 

USER WAS WARNED FOR THIS POST

 

Oo0ps

Anyway, my attention currently is on Death_Kitty.

Is it "currently", or is it "the whole game"? Nothing else in this mafia caught your attention, aside from a guy who hasn't yet posted?

[Einstein]

 

Random info tidbit:

 

Death_Kitty - Last active: 19:04 yesterday (-6:00 time).

Just like editing posts rule (thx nodlied), being a internet spy detective is not really welcomed in mafia games

Plus you don't know if he's visiting as guest (thread is public).

 

Ah fair point, my bad. I'll keep quiet then

[Mojoman]

I stand by my vote and my taunt (saw you reading the post so I thought why not ;D).

 

I learned from my last game as scum not to jump on anyone too quick, as it would cast shade on me.

So I know that what I'm doing now may look scummy, as if I am jumping on a poor newbie trying to even it out for scum.

 

But I'd like to think I'd use more subtle means... such as suggesting that Isaac is either new or just acting scummy.

 

That other mafia game was months ago. Either Isaac is being very studious for a mafia game, or a veteran scum is feeding his scum ally info to throw suspicion off a newbie.

 

 

 

 

Also Killing You is probably a Captain.