ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Shade939 said: you can figure out if someone is likely an Officer, Umagaon, or Riot Trooper based on if they managed to kill someone with their 75/75/50% kill chances 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 @Shade939 someone's kill hits or misses, how can you possibly deduce they were a riot trooper? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: @Shade939 someone's kill hits or misses, how can you possibly deduce they were a riot trooper? Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Shade939 said: Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman. Oh, does KY announce the percentages when the action is taken? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 @Killing_You, day kill can give three results correct? Stuck, Miss or hit? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Shade939 said: @Killing_You, day kill can give three results correct? Stuck, Miss or hit? Look at the day actions on the first page, man. You'll see those are the three results. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ChopBam said: Oh, does KY announce the percentages when the action is taken? My point here is that no matter what the result is, you can't say for sure, or at all, who the character is because you don't know the percentages. You only know the result. And, it being a one-time action, yeah you have none others to compare it to. Not even if everyone else in the game fired their single shots, because it's all rolls of the dice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: My point here is that no matter what the result is, you can't say for sure, or at all, who the character is because you don't know the percentages. You only know the result. And, it being a one-time action, yeah you have none others to compare it to. Not even if everyone else in the game fired their single shots, because it's all rolls of the dice. What percentages do you have on your day kill? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Shade939 said: What percentages do you have on your day kill? And there's the fish. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Be default, I'd assume you percentages should match up with those listed on the first post of the thread? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, FRAYDO said: And there's the fish. The fishing rod and bait, not the actual fish yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ChopBam said: The fishing rod and bait, not the actual fish yet. Unless the listed Nod roles aren't in game. The GDI power units are already going to have a hard enough time of using their abilities effectively, never mind if Nod can actually figure out exactly who they are so they can use their abilities to counteract anything they can do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Because they killed someone. A Riot trooper is twice as likely to kill someone as Rifleman. So they killed someone. Therefore according to you they are a riot trooper. Even though there are characters with an even higher success rate, and characters with lower but non-zero success rates. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: So they killed someone. Therefore according to you they are a riot trooper. Even though there are characters with an even higher success rate, and characters with lower but non-zero success rates. No, they are likely a Riot Trooper, Umagon, or Officer. Any of which I wouldn't mind eliminating as a Nod player. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Shade939 said: No, they are likely a Riot Trooper, Umagon, or Officer. Any of which I wouldn't mind eliminating as a Nod player. You missed the toxin trooper. And everybody who still has a 25% chance to hit if their weapon doesn't get stuck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoman Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think Shade is saying it gives someone a better idea if they ended up hitting. Obviously all 3 people who shot today could have had an only 25% miss chance, but it's unlikely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: You missed the toxin trooper. And everybody who still has a 25% chance to hit if their weapon doesn't get stuck. So, that means out of 6 players that shot, one of them probably actually killed someone... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Medic/Rifle man have a 18.75% chance of killing their target, therefore requiring all of them to target the same person to statistically kill them by getting over 100%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Shade939 said: So, that means out of 6 players that shot, one of them probably actually killed someone... @Mojoman can you translate this one for me? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iLikeToSnipe Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I do not understand Shade's logic at all. No result would prove a person's role. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ChopBam said: @Mojoman can you translate this one for me? Read the followup post where I explained the probability for that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's an attempt, but it's certainly not as cut-and-dry as you may want to think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, FRAYDO said: It's an attempt, but it's certainly not as cut-and-dry as you may want to think. For day one it really is though... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Shade939 said: For day one it really is though... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Medic/Rifle man have a 18.75% chance of killing their target, therefore requiring all of them to target the same person to statistically kill them by getting over 100%. Some of them will probably get stuck, and let's throw the mutant hijacker in that list as well. How is this discussion helpful? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shade939 Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ChopBam said: Some of them will probably get stuck, and let's throw the mutant hijacker in that list as well. How is this discussion helpful? Most likely everyone using there day kill will simply result in figuring out that the majority of players can't be Spies, and Nod figuring out who the Umagon and Cop would be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRAYDO Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 With all due respect, I think it's a fruitless discussion. Shade's conjectures only hold so much weight when you have to consider percentages and RNG. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoman Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, ChopBam said: @Mojoman can you translate this one for me? You got me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChopBam Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shade939 said: Most likely everyone using there day kill will simply result in figuring out that the majority of players can't be Spies, and Nod figuring out who the Umagon and Cop would be. If the majority of players were spies, we'd have lost already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoman Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I agree, with other factors we could add the day kill percentages on top to form an opinion. But it's all conjecture. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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