Games Vanilla-Chocolate Twist Mafia

[Nodlied]

Just now, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Speaking of not being very sharp, what the fuck are you doing? I know you aren't so stupid to fish for reports in a vanilla game.

You answered it yourself, I'm not being very sharp. Plus I guess it's a force of habbit.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Nodlied said:

You answered it yourself, I'm not being very sharp. Plus I guess it's a force of habbit.

Since we're all Italian (apparently), are you Mario the plumber with that avatar? (Even if betraying us to the Poles  )

[Nodlied]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

Since we're all Italian (apparently), are you Mario the plumber with that avatar? (Even if betraying us to the Poles  )

No.  I didn't change my avatar for this game.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Nodlied said:

No.  I didn't change my avatar for this game.

You should.... traitor :P

[Nodlied]

Just now, OrangeP47 said:

You should.... traitor :P

I've been busy.  (Beyond that, I have more important matters to deal with.)

[Shade939]

So, anyone care to comment on the @TheIrishman this game?

[FRAYDO]

2 hours ago, Shade939 said:

relying purely on RNG, after FRAYDO dies of course.

 

1 hour ago, Mojoman said:

The real meta is, FRAYDO is the Fool. 

[FRAYDO]

59 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

So, anyone care to comment on the @TheIrishman this game?

My comment on TheIrishman

I got nothing	Why are you interested though?
Do you have something you would like to share?	filler text
filler text	filler text

 

[Shade939]

1 hour ago, FRAYDO said:

My comment on TheIrishman

I got nothing	Why are you interested though?
Do you have something you would like to share?	filler text
filler text	filler text

 

It's really easy to hide as scum if no one actaully pays attention to the fact that you've made one comment over the course of the entire game so far, so there isn't any sort of evidence to indicate if your mafia or town this game and attention is being focused instead on any slightly more suspicious player since they've actaully bothered to make more than one comment so far.

[OrangeP47]

1 minute ago, Shade939 said:

It's really easy to hide as scum if no one actaully pays attention to the fact that you've made one comment over the course of the entire game so far, so there isn't any sort of evidence to indicate if your mafia or town this game and attention is being focused instead on any slightly more suspicious player since they've actaully bothered to make more than one comment so far.

I'm usually the first to go for inactives, but inactives should be secondary to good leads.  It's like a food pyramid.

Given what Irish has said, I think he'll be back shortly, and we should give him a chance.  Only if he's still gone at the end of tomorrow when hammer is (is it back to 6pm est?) would I consider it an option, and only then if there's no movement on other fronts.

[iLikeToSnipe]

10 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I'm usually the first to go for inactives, but inactives should be secondary to good leads.  It's like a food pyramid.

Given what Irish has said, I think he'll be back shortly, and we should give him a chance.  Only if he's still gone at the end of tomorrow when hammer is (is it back to 6pm est?) would I consider it an option, and only then if there's no movement on other fronts.

I was going to keep it at 7:30 PM (48 hours after D2 started).

[Shade939]

19 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I'm usually the first to go for inactives, but inactives should be secondary to good leads.  It's like a food pyramid.

Given what Irish has said, I think he'll be back shortly, and we should give him a chance.  Only if he's still gone at the end of tomorrow when hammer is (is it back to 6pm est?) would I consider it an option, and only then if there's no movement on other fronts. 

I do have to ask the obvious question, said where exactly?

[Shade939]

##Vote Orangep47

Yeah, I'm going to go with the obvious interpretation that you've been talking with Irish in the scum doc, because he's rather obviously hasn't said anything in this thread to support your statement...

[OrangeP47]

Wow, you're right.  He didn't say anything.  I swore he did.  Maybe I confused him with iLTS because they're both purple now, which is disorienting.

[Sunflower]

So I guess if we're going to try to find the townies without relying on reports, we should be analyzing the way people vote, the things they say (like the Orange thing just now), and just general feel? Anything else we can do to try to narrow it down?

[Shade939]

5 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

Wow, you're right.  He didn't say anything.  I swore he did.  Maybe I confused him with iLTS because they're both purple now, which is disorienting.

Yeah, it's just a mistake that implies your talking with Irish in the scum doc...

[OrangeP47]

Just now, Shade939 said:

Yeah, it's just a mistake that implies your talking with Irish in the scum doc...

I'll vote Irish up if it helps show I'm not on a scum team with him, though I still think he's a bad lynch at this juncture.

[Jeod]

Just now, Sunflower said:

So I guess if we're going to try to find the townies without relying on reports, we should be analyzing the way people vote, the things they say (like the Orange thing just now), and just general feel? Anything else we can do to try to narrow it down?

Correct. So far, TheIrishMan has said one thing this game. Mojoman seems to have picked up that ChopBam was pretending to be a power role, but failed to notice that I was softing doc. Mojoman's also failed to react to the claim and has yet to unvote. I currently believe Cat5 has him and Nodlied in his sights per the vote analysis he presumably did for D1. Shade appears to be poking players to try to find a reason to push a lynch. They've been pretty bad reasons so far.

For the record, I'm not actually the doctor and I don't know if the role exists. However, we now have facts in the way of "who noticed the softclaim and who didn't", which says a lot about who our suspects should and should not be. Cat5, for example, would probably have tried to kill me last night if he were scum.

[Jeod]

4 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

Yeah, it's just a mistake that implies your talking with Irish in the scum doc...

Stop being a dumbass.

[Jeod]

By the way, I'm now home and at a proper keyboard.

[iLikeToSnipe]

Vote Count:

Jeod (1 vote):

• Mojoman

Mojoman (1 vote):

• Jeod

OrangeP47 (1 vote):

• Shade939

[Category 5 Hurricane]

Alright, I've completed my analysis. I've been quite busy, so I'm lucky this game has been so quiet. Because this game is lacking in content and a lot of you are unfamiliar with how to do detective work in a vanilla game, I'm going to give you guys a peek at my notes so that we all can benefit from them. I don't always do this because I don't want scum to learn to use my detective work against me, but I'll make the exception this time. I will try to continue to do so as long as I'm alive.

First, I'm going to talk about the voting.

On my chart, I've highlighted votes that changed the leader of the vote at the time the vote was made by placing them in a large black border on the left side. On the right, I border in red the players who are immediately put at higher risk as a result of the vote, and I put blue around the players who become less at risk as a result of that vote. I also color the full cell of any player who has been GM confirmed the color of their faction, and if a player who makes a vote currently has a vote placed on him, I bold and italicize that name on the right to identify where that player was at the time. (For the purposes of trying not to unfairly color the impression on myself, I'm not marking my own name as confirmed. I won't use my charts as evidence of my own alignment.)

I have to say that my initial thoughts on the voting didn't quite match up after I sat down and made this chart. The votes that had me most suspicious originally were Mojoman's and Nodlied's votes on Jeod, both of which could have been aimed to help either FRAYDO or Shade939. The problem I have with that now is that I didn't realize at the time that those votes happened so early. It would be odd for scum to make a move to save someone so early on D1. Indeed, the votes that really had the highest impact on the final vote were mine and Sunflower's votes closer to the end of day, both of which directly helped Jeod avoid the lynch.

Just before Sunflower made the vote that effectively saved Jeod, Jeod himself made a vote change that didn't impact himself at all, even though he could have easily gone for the self-preservation angle and reduced the risk on himself. That and Jeod's little WIFOM stunt makes me lean towards calling him not-scum. (This backwards naming really makes it hard to correctly label cases...I'm going to go with non-scum and scum, to refer to the typical meaning of town and mafia, respectively)

Because I don't really suspect Jeod, I also don't suspect Sunflower for making the lynch save, though I think this could be worth keeping in mind.

Next, one of my favorite tools that helps me spot who might be buddies, who isn't talking about each other, and which players are not both on the scum team.

On this chart, I rate how favorably each couple of players are acting towards each other, comparing the name on the left with the name at the top, with the number in the box indicating the rating I'm giving the pair. So, on this chart, Shade939 and OrangeP47 have a score of -11, the max negative score I will assign. This indicates I find it effectively impossible that these two are both on the scum team. Jeod and Shade are close to this level of unfavorability. Jeod and I have what I consider to be the highest favorability as we both support each other a little bit (though not very high in general). I'm not going to go into detail on what I consider positive or negative, but in general players that disagree with each other will drop in rating, and players that agree will increase in rating. I'll leave a space empty if I haven't seen any interaction between the pair. A 0 is different than a blank space as that indicates I've seen both negative and positive interaction.

Things of interest I'd note outside of what I just mentioned:
Mojoman had the highest unfavorability with ChopBam, though that number was tiny and entirely based on ChopBam's vote. Few other people seemed to pay him much attention.
Least likely pairings seem to be OrangeP47/Shade, Jeod/Shade and then Jeod/Mojoman. Everything else seems pretty wide open.
OrangeP47 seems to be totally focused on Shade. Doesn't seem to really be making substantial discussions with anybody else.
This is probably natural for two players who have said very little, but FRAYDO and TheIrishman have both only had two players talk to or talk about them in any substantial way.
Shade has drawn a negative rating from every player except FRAYDO, though that's largely because I considered the "are you scum" tests as -1, and he did most of those.

 

I've got a little bit more that isn't really covered by these charts, but it's now past when I should be sleeping, so I'll just drop this book now and let you guys chew on this, and I'll add more tomorrow.

[Jeod]

But is is tomorrow. Hammer is in ~11 hours! ?

##vote Mojoman

Still don't like this guy.

[OrangeP47]

That's a lot to take in.  I'll need some time to process it.  I do straight up agree with one thing though, Jeod is non-scum.  That's about the only thing I'm certain of right now.  My only scum lead would be Shade, but as previously discussed that's not based on much (not that we have much to base anything on right now.

The Mojo lead is interesting.  I always have trouble reading him, so in a way I have to defer/sheep on that, as much as I hate to.

[Sunflower]

I'm not really very suspicious of Jeod right now either, but I do feel like something with Jeod/Shade is worth mentioning. Them bickering is almost like a meme at this point and it'd be really weird if they didn't. So I feel like if they ever do end up as a scum team, they'd probably try to continue that dynamic. That makes me kinda hesitant to assume they aren't a pair just because they're bickering in pretty much any mafia game.

[OrangeP47]

6 minutes ago, Sunflower said:

I'm not really very suspicious of Jeod right now either, but I do feel like something with Jeod/Shade is worth mentioning. Them bickering is almost like a meme at this point and it'd be really weird if they didn't. So I feel like if they ever do end up as a scum team, they'd probably try to continue that dynamic. That makes me kinda hesitant to assume they aren't a pair just because they're bickering in pretty much any mafia game.

Yeah that's a good point.  I'd love to read that scumchat, heh. Though I say that about Shade-anyone scumchat.  Last game my scumchat with him was sadly lacking in arguments, mostly because of me being on painkillers

[Sunflower]

My thoughts on various people

Shade: His d1 interrogations were interesting. I could see that being a non-scum strategy with the twist set up to try to catch a scum player offguard. OTOH, it might also be something a scum player would try because even non-scum players can make slip ups. And actually there's been a lot of times in past games where we all ganged up on someone for fumbling with their words and ended up being wrong. So it could have been a way for a scum player to try to get an easy mislynch. He did also vote nolynch though, and that's usually a non-scum thing to do.

Nodlied: Might have been rolefishing when he asked for reports after most people seemed to agree that we need to keep those secret. Might have been an innocent mistake, but maybe not. If Cat 5 didn't respond so soon, someone might have answered his question.

Cat 5: Generally being his usual inquisitive and helpful self. Maybe a little more helpful than usual and looking for attention, but things like his reaction to Nodlied and how it might have prevented a power role from revealing themselves gives him some non-scum points in my book.

Jeod: It's always hard for me to read him because he lies even when he's not scum, and he's done that again this round. He was strongly opposed to nolynch on d1 for some reason. He has been pretty helpful though and seems mostly harmless. One thing I did notice is he reacted pretty strongly to defend Orange from Shade.

Mojoman: He's been trying to get people voted up and didn't like the nolynch. RNG is kind of his schtick, but at the same time, it's something that would be pretty helpful if he was scum.

Irish: Being quiet is weird for him. Maybe between the reaction to reports after the marvel game and reports being frowned upon in this game, he got gunshy about his charts or something. Still he's usually pretty active, so I dunno what to make of him being quiet. It's something to think on anyway.

FRAYDO: Kinda quiet too. Not much to say about him at this time.

Orange: Something feels off about him, but I'm not sure why. I'm also getting tired from doing all that analysis lol. *shrug*

Sunflower: I am a flower with a cigar in it's mouth.

 

[OrangeP47]

I think I'll put a pressure vote on Mojo.  I'm going to be busy this afternoon but I'll be back before hammer to take in new developments.

##vote Mojoman

Jeod, is there a reason you voted for him again when you were already voting for him?

[FRAYDO]

I won't be around to do much of anything today nor have I gathered enough information to confidently place a vote. It's not a no lynch from me, just no vote.

[Category 5 Hurricane]

6 hours ago, Jeod said:

But is is tomorrow. Hammer is in ~11 hours! ?

##vote Mojoman

Still don't like this guy.

Yes, but "tomorrow" for me meant after I woke up. Which is now.