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[GAME OVER] Apocalypse Rising Mafia I


Jeod
Message added by Jeod,

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5 minutes ago, Killing_You said:

Did it, though? Irish got stuck despite only having a 25% chance to do so, and there were a couple of roles that failed a 50/50 coinflip on either the stuck or hit roll (yourself being one of them). Numbers game can only get us so far, but it can carry scum further than town. Let's not do it.

Yeah, Irish was actually the only player to get a non-standard result for his role.

Realistically, the numbers game is probably balanced to push things towards a 50/50 chance of catching of Scum with it though.

The main benefit of using it this time, is Conscripts can basically self clear as a Conscript, helping narrow down players to be targeted by Night Actions. Also, it occurs to me but we only have one investigative role this game in the form of the Radar Tower.

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1 minute ago, Retaliation said:

We should make them fight.

Funny as that would be, I'm townreading Shade right now (as in, this is his usual game). Plus I'd rather holster my shot for when it seems necessary.

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Wow, now that I've worked out the numbers, Shade missing actually gives him an overwhelming chance of being a Conscript. 75% chance just from the shot. Granted, it starts out at 40% given the fact that there are five of them, but this statistical effect is stronger than the other game due to how unlikely it is for any other role to miss. Miss chance is effectively 56% for a Conscript and nobody else tops 25% chance for that result. His overall chance of being Mafia is reduced from 25% to 10%.

From the solo perspective of Shade, that is clearly a good move to make, as long as you get the result you want. Which is just better than a coin flip.

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8 hours ago, Mojoman said:

@Jeod / @Louis Can you clarify what conscript's night action means when it says 'The Allies will know if you practiced.'? Does that mean they'll know specifically who is a conscript?

The description is enough for you. The rest is up to speculation.

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5 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Wow, now that I've worked out the numbers, Shade missing actually gives him an overwhelming chance of being a Conscript. 75% chance just from the shot. Granted, it starts out at 40% given the fact that there are five of them, but this statistical effect is stronger than the other game due to how unlikely it is for any other role to miss. Miss chance is effectively 56% for a Conscript and nobody else tops 25% chance for that result. His overall chance of being Mafia is reduced from 25% to 10%.

From the solo perspective of Shade, that is clearly a good move to make, as long as you get the result you want. Which is just better than a coin flip.

I do hope you agree, though, that conscripts shouldn't just mass-out though.

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5 hours ago, Category 5 Hurricane said:

Maths and such. Disclaimers and such.

As long no one objects to this math I'm good with trusting Cat 5's reasoning.

 

(Though it'll probably end up being either the town or scum play of the century with like a 1% miss chance)

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Though a miss does limit the possibilities  and elimates 1 scum role and 2 town roles and heavily indicates he's not 1 other town role and 1 other scum role. So in my mind, that pushes him way more towards town than all that other fancy math.

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