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Mystery Mafia: Holidays 2019


iLikeToSnipe

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39 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I mean, I've said my piece, it's not changing. It's not convincing you. It's not convincing Shade. Jeod can *maybe* be convinced not to no lynch, but then we're 2 v 2. KY is probably at D&D today so not here. Everyone else is asleep at the wheel. Game is dead.

No, I'm here, don't worry. I was just playing Zero Hour.

So, where do we go from Orange daykilling a townie? Worst case scenario, we mislynch a townie, leaving us down 2 town at the end of D1. Assuming 2 scum (following the usual logic of 25% of players = scum), that puts us at 4v2, and then if the NK isn't stopped, we're at 3v2 at the start of D2. AKA: Instant MYLO, Just Add Water.

Now, is there a possibility that Orange is a Mafia "signaling" his partner? Maybe, but it's very slim. I don't think Mafia would lash out like that, because there's too much risk involved. Risk of hitting your partner. Risk of gaining unwanted attention of town.

Based on all of that, I don't think Orange is a scum dayvig, and I don't feel comfortable risking a mislynch at this juncture.

##vote nolynch

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1 minute ago, Killing_You said:

No, I'm here, don't worry. I was just playing Zero Hour.

So, where do we go from Orange daykilling a townie? Worst case scenario, we mislynch a townie, leaving us down 2 town at the end of D1. Assuming 2 scum (following the usual logic of 25% of players = scum), that puts us at 4v2, and then if the NK isn't stopped, we're at 3v2 at the start of D2. AKA: Instant MYLO, Just Add Water.

Now, is there a possibility that Orange is a Mafia "signaling" his partner? Maybe, but it's very slim. I don't think Mafia would lash out like that, because there's too much risk involved. Risk of hitting your partner. Risk of gaining unwanted attention of town.

Based on all of that, I don't think Orange is a scum dayvig, and I don't feel comfortable risking a mislynch at this juncture.

##vote nolynch

I mean, how do you feel about the active players? Because we have 3 inactives basically, and if we think all the actives are town, if we just pick an inactive we have a 66% chance of getting a mafia, which are pretty good odds.

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8 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I mean, how do you feel about the active players? Because we have 3 inactives basically, and if we think all the actives are town, if we just pick an inactive we have a 66% chance of getting a mafia, which are pretty good odds.

He's probably questioning why you want to try and push the lynch unto a player who isn't here to defend themselves.

Also Orange, sure, I'll take that bet.

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3 minutes ago, Shade939 said:

He's probably questioning why you want to try and push the lynch unto a player who isn't here to defend themselves.

Also Orange, sure, I'll take that bet.

It's called process of elimination.  When you cross off the people who are townie, scum has to be among the people who are left (unless you're wrong). It's so simple it's even simpler than mafia 101.

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8 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I mean, how do you feel about the active players? Because we have 3 inactives basically, and if we think all the actives are town, if we just pick an inactive we have a 66% chance of getting a mafia, which are pretty good odds.

Let's go down the list, shall we?

OrangeP47- I really, really don't agree with how you've handled your role, but I thoroughly doubt you're a Mafia Dayvig. You're naughty town, but town nonetheless, in my eyes.

Jeod- Solid town read. His questioning definitely felt like he was coming from a town angle, and I agree with his decision to go for nolynch given the circumstances.

Shade939- Being shade. Focusing on mechanics and balance from an alternate universe perspective, assuming what people are thinking, etc...

Mojoman- Inactive, need to see more.

NodFan- Inactive, need to see more.

ChopBam- I don't like his responses so far. His reasoning for voting you was just "I don't like your vibes," without the substance of Jeod. He's also pushing hard on you under the assumption that you're a Mafia Dayvig, which I've already explained why I don't agree with. It feels like he's pushing too much on an "easy lynch" as opposed to putting some thought into whether or not the risk to town is worth it.

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I just realized FRAYDO isn't in this game. I saw him post once and thought he was in the game.  Actually, that means there's just two inactives, and they're both my suspects. I'm actually much more confident in voting one of them now.

As for Chop, I'd agree with your assessment KY, except he's been lackluster in the past. So *maybe*, I guess.

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Have been busy with family today. I'll catch up on the lover's quarrel later, but I stand by my vote of nolynch for the day. There is simply no reason to go after an inactive or the daykill player. I can see no logical means to back up a vote on them.

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26 minutes ago, Jeod said:

Have been busy with family today. I'll catch up on the lover's quarrel later, but I stand by my vote of nolynch for the day. There is simply no reason to go after an inactive or the daykill player. I can see no logical means to back up a vote on them.

Headline: Jeod Can't Do Math

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Day 1 Vote Count

OrangeP47 (2 votes):

  • ChopBam
  • Shade939

Mojoman (1 vote):

  • OrangeP47

No Lynch (2 votes):

  • Jeod
  • Killing_You

 

Looks like it's a toss up between Orange and no lynch! A coin toss will solve this easily... With a result of Tails No Lynch is chosen. Orange escapes the noose today.

Please get your night actions in, if any, by the beginning of the next day phase. The night phase ends in 24 hours at 6:00 PM EST 01/05/20. Only two night posts per player.

Players Left (7):

  • OrangeP47
  • Jeod
  • Shade939
  • Killing_You
  • Mojoman
  • NodFan
  • ChopBam
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38 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

If there's a protective role, protect Jeod or KY. If there's no NK or the NK doesn't make sense, the inactives may be the scum and it may have been randed for them.

Or, if their is a protective role  they could target someone who wasn't trying to keep the player who's actively harmed Town alive.

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2 hours ago, Shade939 said:

Or, if their is a protective role  they could target someone who wasn't trying to keep the player who's actively harmed Town alive.

KY-Jeod-me can win us this game, especially if the inactives don't get replaced :p

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Day 2

Uh-oh, looks like one of you didn't show up this morning. You rush to investigate Killing_You's quarters to find him dead! Inside you find a bunch of medical supplies. Killing_You the Town Doctor is dead!

Day 2 ends in 48 hours at 6:00 PM EST 01/07/2020.

Player Signups (6):

  • OrangeP47
  • Jeod
  • Shade939
  • Mojoman
  • NodFan
  • ChopBam
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